NCAAM Betting – (16) Baylor at (8) Kansas

(16) Baylor Bears at (8) Kansas Jayhawks (-7.5, 136 o/u)

The No. 8  Kansas Jayhawks (20-4, 9-2 Big 12) enjoy a 1.5-game lead in the Big 12 standings (and a two-game lead in the loss column) coming into the weekend.  As such, a Saturday matchup against the No. 16 Baylor Bears (18-6, 6-5 Big 12) will go a long way in determining whether Kansas runs away with its eleventh straight Big 12 regular season title. Tip-off is at 1:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

Fresh off a home loss to Oklahoma State, the Bears must regroup quickly to have any shot in Phog Allen Fieldhouse.

Fortunately, the Bears are a rugged bunch that battle hard on the boards.  Baylor is the fourth-best rebounding team in the country, averaging 41.2 rebounds per game.  Junior forward Rico Gathers is a dominating force on the glass, and is averaging a double-double on the season.

The Bears suffered a heartbreaking one-point defeat against Kansas at home earlier in the season, but their unorthodox zone defense did seem to fluster the Jayhawks.  Coach Scott Drew’s team needs to replicate that defensive performance.

Kansas is coming off an easy win at Texas Tech, and despite a hiccup at Oklahoma State last Saturday, the team firmly controls the Big 12 title race.  The Jayhawks don’t have the same explosive squad they did last year, but poised veterans like Perry Ellis, Frank Mason III, and Wayne Selden Jr. have led this team well.

At 20-4, the Jayhawks are exceeding expectations after losing Andrew Wiggins (No. 1 overall) and Joel Embiid to (No. 3 overall) to the NBA Draft.  Ellis has particularly flourished, leading the team in both scoring (12.9 PPG) and rebounding (7.0 RPG).

The Jayhawks are 7.5-point favorites for tonight’s game and the over/under is at a reasonably high 136 (considering the defenses).

This one will likely be another bruising, low-scoring affair.  The Jayhawks often get off to quick starts at home and get their knockout punch in early, so the first ten minutes will be telling.

(Photo credit: Dirk [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)