NFL Betting – NY Giants at Green Bay Packers

NY Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7, 47.5 o/U)

After a quick start to the season, the last two weeks have left the NY Giants (2-2 SU and 0-3-1 ATS) searching for terra firma. Now 2-2 and last in the NFC East, the G-Men will have a hard time getting their train back on the rails this weekend when they visit the Green Bay Packers (2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS) at Lambeau Field on Sunday Night Football (Oct 9 at 8:30 PM Eastern).

If the Giants are going to rebound, they’ll need to do some maturing. That’s an overstatement. It’s not the whole team that needs to grow up, just Odell Beckham Jr. (22 receptions, 303 yards, zero touchdowns). The immensely skilled yet incredibly volatile receiver was held to just 23 yards last week in a 24-10 loss to the Vikings. He was visibly emotional all game – bumping an official and getting penalized for taunting; and that came just one week after he fought a kicking net following a loss to Washington.

After piling up 25 touchdowns in his first two years, Beckham has yet to find pay dirt this season.

That’s hurt his QB’s numbers. Eli Manning has moved the Giant offense up and down the field (1,186 yards) but only has four TDs to his credit and a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. The red zone struggles have the team averaging just 18.3 PPG (27th in the league) despite sitting sixth in total offense.

Sitting 15th in scoring, the defense has definitely stepped up its game versus last season when they were one of the weakest units in the league. The pass rush remains a concern, though, with a league-low four sacks. Head coach Ben McAdoo will need the likes of Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon to get home this Sunday as corner Eli Apple (hamstring) may be sidelined.

Getting pressure is especially important with Aaron Rodgers slinging the ball on the other side. The two-time MVP was back to his former ways last time out against the Lions, opening up a 31-10 halftime lead before putting it in cruise control and hanging on for a 34-27 win. Rodgers (617 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, 98.6 passer rating) only had 205 passing yards on the day, but tossed four touchdowns, including a pair to Jordy Nelson (17 rec, 206 yards, four touchdowns), who eclipsed 100 yards for the first time since returning from an ACL injury that cost him all of 2015.

The Packer defense has been phenomenal against the run, giving up a league-low 42.7 yards per game and a scant 1.8 yards per carry. The pass defense has been picked on, however. The Packers are allowing over 300 yards per game and nearly nine yards per attempt (second-worst in the league).

Number one receivers, in particular, have had a field day against the Packer secondary. Minnesota’s Stefon Diggs went off for 182 yards and a major in Green Bay’s 17-14 setback; then Marvin Jones had over two bills in the shootout over the Lions. The back end just hasn’t looked the same since Sam Shields exited Week 1 with a concussion.

The Packers are coming off a bye, which means a lot of extra time to rest and prepare. But linebacker and top pass rusher Clay Matthews is still dealing with ankle and hamstring injuries. Add that to Green Bay’s problems in the secondary, and Manning and company should continue to get their yards through the air.

I don’t expect New York’s new-look defense to shut down Rodgers, even with Randall Cobb continuing to struggle and TE Jared Cook on the shelf. But I do expect the Giants (5-1 ATS in the last six against Green Bay) to keep up and make this a one-score game.

Pick: NY Giants (+7).

Photo credit: Mike Morbeck (Flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/].