NFL Betting – Lions Clash With Colts

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 51 o/u)

For the majority of the NFL, this Sunday (September 11) marks the kickoff for the 2016 season. In the second block of games, football fans will have three games to choose from, one being the Detroit Lions (7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS in 2015) heading to Indianapolis to take on the Colts (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS) at Lucas Oil Stadium (4:25 PM ET).

Last season was a very disappointing year for the Detroit Lions, who were coming off of a heartbreaking, controversial loss in the Wild Card game. Detroit lost their first five games of the season and ran their record to 1-7 before completely flipping the script in the second half, going 6-2.

In spite of possessing the ninth-best passing offense in the league, the Lions ranked 20th in total yards, a result of their league-worst rushing attack. Their defense was average-at-best, and could not force a turnover (25th in takeaways).

The 2016 Lions will look quite different than they did a season ago, but not for the better. For the first time in his career, Matthew Stafford (4,262 passing yards, 32 TDs, and 13 INTs in 2015) will enter a season without his favorite target, Calvin Johnson (1,214 yards, nine TDs). Megatron joined Barry Sanders on the list of Detroit greats who have retired too young (for fans, anyway). His presence will undoubtedly be missed.

Without Johnson in the lineup, Detroit will have to rely on a more balanced attack. Stafford will now be throwing to Golden Tate (813 yards, six TDs), as well as free agent signings Marvin Jones (65 receptions, 816 yards, and four TDs with Cincinnati) and Anquan Boldin (69 receptions, 789 yards, four TDs with San Francisco).

Knowing that the passing game will probably take a step back, Detroit has vowed to improve its rushing attack. The team parted ways with Joique Bell to clear the way for Ameer Abdullah (143 carries, 597 yards, and two TDs). Joining Abdullah in the backfield will be Theo Riddick, who served more as a receiver out of the backfield than an actual rusher (697 receiving yards and three TDs), so much so that his 80 receptions tied for the league lead in receptions by a running back.

The Lion defense lost a few key contributors from 2015, most notably, their leading tackler Stephen Tulloch. But Ziggy Ansah (third in the NFL sacks) is back to wreak havoc off the edge, and Darius Slay will continue trying to prove he’s one of the league’s top corners.

Just like the Lions, the Colts also suffered through a very disappointing season in 2015. Andrew Luck had previously led them to three-straight 11-5 marks, but he missed nine games due to injury last year and struggled when healthy (1,881 yards, 15 TDs, and 12 INTs).

The Colts offense only scored 20.8 points per game (24th) and ranked 28th in total yards. Their defense was no better, as per usual, ranking 26th in total yards and 25th in scoring.

Heading into 2016, there is no question that the Colt offense has a lot of weapons, including T.Y. Hilton (1,124 receiving yards, and five TDs) and Donte Moncrief (733 receiving yards, and six TDs). But there is a lot of concern over their offensive line, as has been the case since Luck entered the league.

Looking into this matchup, these are two teams that have a lot of issues up front. Not only do they struggle opening up lanes for their ball carriers, but they haven’t adequately protected their quarterbacks either.

Fortunately for both QBs, neither defense is an imposing unit.

The pivots will plan to get the ball out of their hands quickly, nonetheless, and the outcome will come down to which skill group can make more plays in the open field. I give that nod to the Colts.

A couple betting trends to support my choice: the Colts are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games on turf.

Pick: Colts (-3.5).

Photo Credit: Mark Susina [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0], via Wikimedia Commons.