10 NFL Season-Long Player Props Where Sportsbooks Have Set Bad Lines

Published: August 16, 2025 at 7:00 am EDT

Chase Brown walking the sideline with a football — Cincinnati Bengals halfback Chase Brown (30) holds the football during Bengals Camp practice at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati on Aug. 2, 2025.

Though there are still plenty of questions to be answered ahead of the 2025-26 NFL kickoff, the preseason has awarded us a glimpse into what we can expect from many teams/players this season. While the rest of the preseason will only continue to reveal more, I opened up my sports betting apps now to bet these 10 NFL season-long player props, as I didn’t want to risk any of these lines potentially changing before Week 1.

After carefully going through all of the NFL player futures (passing, rushing, and receiving over/unders) available, these ten stood out to me as bad lines from sportsbooks.

Best NFL Season Props to Bet

Cam Ward Over 3,205.5 Passing Yards
Patrick Mahomes Over 4,050.5 Passing Yards
Trevor Lawrence Over 3,700.5 Passing Yards
JJ McCarthy Over 3,600.5 Passing Yards
Amon-Ra St Brown Over 1,075.5 Receiving Yards
Evan Engram Over 575.5 Receiving Yards
Courtland Sutton Over 875.5 Receiving Yards
Tyler Warren Over 525.5 Receiving Yards
Christian McCaffrey Over 425.5 Receiving Yards
Chase Brown Over 875.5 Rushing Yards

Continue reading to find the best sportsbook at which to bet each of these NFL player props, as well as my data-driven analysis behind the prediction. I have also included a milestone bet with longer odds for some of the NFL season-long props below, for those who like my read and want to hit the sportsbooks a little harder if I’m right.

Cam Ward Passing Yards

I made this same bet on a very similar line last year with Caleb Williams, which cashed (after a bit of a sweat), and am more confident in Cam Ward going over this year. Will Levis and Mason Rudolph combined for 3,621 passing yards last season for the Titans, and the two were pretty horrific.

They were so bad that Brian Callahan, whose offenses had been in the top-seven for pass attempts in three of five seasons, just stopped asking them to throw the ball. The Titans ranked 23rd in pass attempts, the worst ranking for a Callahan-led offense in his career. The only season that rivals it was the 2021 Bengals, when they ranked 20th in pass attempts, but that was only because they were such a big-play offense – they ranked 7th in passing yards that season.

Callahan loves to throw the football and I believe he will get back to doing it frequently with his new franchise QB. Even if Ward struggles out of the gate, I don’t believe Tennessee will turn to Brandon Allen or Trevor Siemian.

The first-overall pick just needs to average 188.6 passing yards per game (across 17 games) in order to cash the over, and, barring injury, I don’t believe he will have any problem accomplishing that, especially when you consider how poor the Colts and Jaguars, teams he will play twice each this season, were against the pass last year.

Pick: 1 unit on Cam Ward Over 3,205.5 Passing Yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick: 0.5 units on Cam Ward 3,500+ Passing Yards (+175 at DraftKings)

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Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes has surpassed this total (4,050.5) in five of his seven seasons as a starter, and one of those misses was by 19 yards in 2019, when he only played 14 games. However, because he missed it last year, and wasn’t that much over it in 2023, sportsbooks have gifted us a very low line on Mahomes’ passing yards for this season.

There is no denying the Chiefs’ offense has changed significantly since Tyreek Hill left town after the 2021 season. Without his speed and big-play capabilities, the offense has been forced to attack more short and immediate parts of the field when putting the ball in the air. But that didn’t stop Mahomes from posting a league-leading 5,250 passing yards in 2022.

The difference between that season and the previous two is simply the players around Mahomes, in my opinion. In 2022, he had a younger Travis Kelce, who was arguably enjoying the backend of his prime, a very reliable JuJu Smith-Schuster, some speed in Marques Valdes-Scantling, and a very good pass-catching back in Jerick McKinnon. Not to mention, his offensive line was a top-ten unit in pass blocking, per PFF.

In 2023, Kelce was playing most of the regular season through lingering injuries, Rashee Rice tried to step in for JuJu, but was a rookie learning Andy Reid’s complex system (and didn’t start coming on until the second half of the season), Skyy Moore didn’t pan out, McKinnon took a big step back, and the Kadarius Toney project didn’t work. However, his offensive line was still pretty good, and he managed to throw for 4,138 yards in just 16 games.

In 2024, Kelce clearly looked to be past his prime, Rice got hurt early in Week 4 after very strong performances in the first three weeks, Xavier Worthy took time to learn Reid’s complex system (but also came on strong in the second half of the season), aged JuJu and DeAndre Hopkins tried to fill in after Rice went down (on top of Marquise Brown also getting hurt in the offseason), and they lacked a back with any sort of explosion. On top of that, KC’s offensive line was average-at-best, and had a major weakness at LT.

In case the anecdotal breakdown doesn’t tell the story, here are some analytics to prove my point. Mahomes’ average time to throw last season was 2.77 seconds, per PFF, the 10th-quickest among QBs who recorded 50%+ of their team’s dropbacks. This was well down from 3.04 (34th-quickest) in 2023. Mahomes also ranked 24th in passing air yards per game, among players with at least 1,000 air yards for the season, with just 224.9, and was tied for 24th in the league with just 13 completions that went at least 20 yards through the air. Here’s how that compares to previous seasons:

2023: Averaged 242.1 passing air yards per game & had 17 completions that traveled 20+ yards in the air
2022: Averaged 276 passing air yards per game & had 25 completions that traveled 20+ yards in the air
2021: Averaged 284.1 passing air yards per game & had 29 completions that traveled 20+ yards in the air
2020: Averaged 327.3 passing air yards per game & had 26 completions that traveled 20+ yards in the air
2019: Averaged 305.2 passing air yards per game & had 31 completions that traveled 20+ yards in the air
2018: Averaged 328.8 passing air yards per game & had 37 completions that traveled 20+ yards in the air

In 2025, the Chiefs get Rashee Rice back (outside of whatever his suspension ends up being), Worthy enters Year 2 in the system, Brown might be healthy to start the season, they drafted an extremely explosive running back in Brashard Smith (who has been running a lot of routes out of the backfield in camp), and also invested their first-round pick in LT Josh Simmons.

I’m not sure we see Mahomes surpass 5,000 yards again this season, but I really like him to easily clear the 4,000 mark – the expected competitiveness of the AFC West might also force him back into playing 17 games, which would help.

Pick: 1 unit on Patrick Mahomes Over 4,050.5 Passing Yards (-107 at BetRivers)

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards

Last season was certainly a disappointing one for the first-overall pick from the 2021 NFL Draft. Trevor Lawrence averaged a career-low 204.5 passing yards per game, and injuries held him to just ten games. To be fair, though, he did leave one game after just 19 snaps with a concussion that ended his season, and had another game where he missed about 20% of their snaps due to an ankle injury.

However, Lawrence has gone over 3,700 passing yards in two of four seasons, missing by just 60 yards in his rookie season, and now gets Liam Cohen, whose offense threw the ball 10th-most and racked up the third-most passing yards in the NFL last season, as his play-caller. Not to mention, they just drafted Travis Hunter to play opposite Brian Thomas Jr, giving them quite the explosive WR duo.

What’s most encouraging about these changes around Lawrence is Jacksonville bringing in two new starting offensive linemen in free agency, and also investing a third-round pick in a guard who will push for a starting role as well. But even if the offensive line isn’t great, Cohen’s offense last season in Tampa Bay was not a chunk offense. They operated a lot of quick-passing concepts and got the ball out of Baker Mayfield’s hands quickly. Mayefield was tied for the 4th-fastest average time to throw on dropbacks with a pass attempt, per PFF.

I believe Jacksonville has the receivers to create space quickly, and like the idea of Lawrence being asked to make some quick decisions. I think we see Lawrence post more passing yards than he has in any of his previous four seasons.

Pick: 1 unit on Trevor Lawrence Over 3,700.5 Passing Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Pick: 0.5 units on Trevor Lawrence 4,000+ Passing Yards (+175 at DraftKings)

JJ McCarthy Passing Yards

In each of Kevin O’Connell’s three seasons as head coach of the Vikings, the team has finished in the top six in passing yards. The lowest passing total for a single season came in 2024, when they only threw for 4,379, and the top-end was 4,818 in 2022.

This feat becomes even more impressive when you consider who O’Connell has been getting this production from.

In 2023, Cousins only played in eight games, where he was averaging 291.4 passing yards per game, which left the combo of Nick Mullens, Josh Dobbs, and Jaren Hall to combine for 2,369 yards in nine starts (plus cleanup duty when Cousins got hurt). In 2024, O’Connell managed to get Sam Darnold to throw for 4,319 yards, averaging 254.1 yards per game. Darnold’s previous career-high in passing yards for a season was 3,024 back in 2019 – he did only play in 13 games, but his average yards per game was well below at 232.6.

For the first time as a head coach, Kevin O’Connell got to choose his guy at QB, and he selected JJ McCarthy. If there were any doubts about McCarthy, or he liked Darnold that much, I believe we would have seen Darnold re-sign with the Vikings in free agency. O’Connell must also think McCarthy is far enough along right now to give him Week 2 of the preseason off – you’re not resting him if he hasn’t looked good in practice.

Pick: 1 unit on JJ McCarthy Over 3,650.5 Passing Yards (+100 at BetMGM)
Pick: 0.5 units on JJ McCarthy 4,000+ Passing Yards (+210 at DraftKings)

Amon-Ra St Brown Receiving Yards

Amon-Ra St Brown has gone over 1,075.5 receiving yards in three of his four seasons in the pros. He has cleared that number by a good margin in each of the last two years as well, totaling 1,515 receiving yards in 2023 and 1,263 in 2024. A big part of the success has come from St Brown being targeted very heavily in the last three years. His fewest targets in any of the last three seasons was 141, which came last year, and only five players have been targeted more over that window.

I am firmly on the side of Ben Johnson’s departure as OC being significant for the Lions offense. However, I don’t think it will prevent ARSB from hitting this over. I think the Detroit offense is likely going to be less efficient without Johnson’s play-calling, and also believe we will see less Jameson Williams running wide open deep down the field. I expect the inefficiencies will force the offense to lean on their stars a little more than they’ve needed to in the past, and St Brown is one of those two – Jahmyr Gibbs being the other.

Pick: 1 unit on Amon-Ra St Brown Over 1,100.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at BetMGM)

Evan Engram Receiving Yards

Evan Engram has surpassed 575 receiving yards in five of eight seasons. Looking to the three where he missed, Engram played in nine games or less in two of them, and the third came in 2021 (his final year with the Giants) when his team finished 31st in passing yards.

The veteran TE now moves into a Sean Payton offense, where he is reportedly going to serve the “Joker” role. Other players to serve in this role in Payton’s past offenses include Jeremy Shockey, Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, and Alvin Kamara – those guys were/are all pretty good. Though only one Bronco surpassed this total last season, keep in mind that Bo Nix got off to an extremely slow start, averaging just 178 yards per game over the first seven weeks. Nix averaged 252.9 passing yards per game over the final ten games of the regular season, which would total 4,299 yards over 17 games.

While I do think RJ Harvey might find himself contributing in a similar “Joker” role, I think Payton and Bo Nix will lean on Engram to attack the heart of the defense often, especially with an inexperienced set of wide receivers playing behind Courtland Sutton.

Pick: 1 unit on Evan Engram Over 575.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick: 0.5 units on Evan Engram 750+ Receiving Yards (+200 at bet365)

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards

This might be the worst line of the ten from sportsbooks. Courtland Sutton recorded 1,081 receiving yards last season. Yes, it marked just the second time in his career he has gone over 875 receiving yards. But you have to remember Sutton has not had a reliable QB throughout his career – Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, and Russell Wilson are among the QBs he has had delivering him the football.

You also have to remember, as mentioned above, how badly Bo Nix struggled out of the gate in his rookie season. Sutton totaled just 277 yards through the first seven games of the season, an ugly 39.6 yards per game. Once Nix started to find his groove, Sutton averaged 80.4 yards per game over the final ten games of the season, and posted 75 receiving yards in their playoff loss to the Bills.

Sutton remains the Broncos clear WR1 and should have a more comfortable Nix for the entire season.

Pick: 1 unit on Courtland Sutton Over 875.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Pick: 0.5 units on Courtland Sutton 1,000+ Receiving Yards (+145 at DraftKings)

Tyler Warren Receiving Yards

The Colts had three receivers go over 800 yards last season while ranking 25th in passing yards. While we have been seeing a lot of Adonai Mitchell highlights out of training camp, I believe there will be plenty of focus on their new TE, regardless of who starts at quarterback.

Daniel Jones averages 6.1 targets to tight ends per game in his career (19.2% target share), while Anthony Richardson averages 4.6 targets to tight ends per game (19.8% share). Also, Shane Steichen has been an OC/HC for six season in the NFL now; here’s how his TEs have fared each of those seasons:

2024: Colts TEs only totaled 351 receiving yards, with Kylen Granson and Mo Alie-Cox serving as their starting tight ends
2023: Colts TEs totaled 883 yards, with the same two TEs leading the way as in 2024
2022: Dallas Goedert recorded 702 receiving yards while only playing 12 games
2021: Goedert recorded 830 receiving yards while only playing 15 games
2020: Hunter Henry recorded 613 receiving yards while only playing 14 games
2019: Henry recorded 652 receiving yards while only playing 12 games

Steichen’s system is very TE-friendly, and Tyler Warren is arguably the most talented tight end he has coached, especially after the catch. I expect Steichen to be very creative in how he utilizes Warren, and provides his QBs with some easy throws to the tight end each week.

Pick: 1 unit on Tyler Warren Over 525.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick: 0.5 units on Tyler Warren Over 750+ Receiving Yards (+280 at bet365)

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards

The only seasons in which Christian McCaffrey has not gone over 425.5 receiving yards, which is just three of eight, are where he has played seven games or less – he got close with 343 in 2021 when only playing seven games, and is coming off just 146 last season in just four games.

This is basically a bet on CMC playing most of the season. But with the state of San Francisco’s wide receiver room right now – Brandon Aiyuk potentially landing on PUP, Deebo Samuel gone, Jauan Jennings sidelined with a calf injury, among others – McCaffrey may not even need that many games to cash this over. Kyle Shanahan may need to get creative in how he deploys his star running back, as their Week 1 receivers might be Ricky Pearsall, Demarcus Robinson, and Jacob Cowing.

But even if he doesn’t get any extra looks, McCaffrey averages 37.9 receiving yards per game as a 49er. If he keeps that pace, he will surpass this total in his 12th game of the season.

Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 425.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at DraftKings)

Chase Brown Rushing Yards

Chase Brown totaled 990 rushing yards last season, and did not play in their final game of the season. On top of that, Brown was the clear backup RB to start the season, only seeing a total of 14 rushing attempts through the first three weeks. In his final 13 games, the Bengals back averaged 68.2 rushing yards per game on 16.5 rushing attempts, which would put him on pace to total 1,158 rushing yards.

The Bengals offensive line was pretty horrific last season as well, ranking 29th in run blocking, per PFF, but they project to have two new starters at guard this season. Their defense was also very bad, allowing the eighth-most points in the league, which forced the offense to play with a negative game script often – they had the third-fewest rushing attempts in the league. Cincinnati made a change at Defensive Coordinator in the offseason, and invested a lot of draft capital into their defense. So, I expect them to be a little better on that side of the ball as well.

I expect all of that to lead to a more balanced attack on offense, with Brown being the feature back as long as he’s healthy. If that’s the case, I don’t see him having any issue going over 875.5 rushing yards, and believe we’ll see him eclipse 1,000 as well.

Pick: 1 unit on Chase Brown Over 875.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Pick: 0.5 units on Chase Brown 1,000+ Rushing Yards (+170 at BetMGM)

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Matt McEwan

Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert

With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.

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