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2017 NFL Awards Odds: Patriots Super Bowl Favorites? Wentz for MVP?

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:38 AM PST

Eagles' sophomore QB and MVP favorite Carson Wentz
Eagles' sophomore QB and MVP favorite Carson Wentz (Photo: Vimeo)

It seemed like just yesterday every team was winless, a trio of first-round wide receivers were going to make their mark on the league, and we were all keeping busy by making fun of the New York Jets. But here we are, preparing to enter Week 13 of the 2017 NFL season. The Cleveland Browns are still winless; Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross have combined for 29 receptions, 299 receiving yards, and no touchdowns; and the 4-7 Jets are just a couple dumb penalties away from holding a Wild Card spot in the AFC.

But hey, there has also been some pretty great happenings from the first 12 weeks of the NFL season. Carson Wentz has taken a giant leap forward in his second year in the league; 40-year-old Tom Brady still looks like vintage Tom Brady; and Sean McVay has pulled a rabbit out of a hat with Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams in his first season on the job, turning 2016’s most inept offense into the second-most potent unit in the league.

With a little over a quarter of the regular season still to be played, it’s time to roll out the odds on how each of these players and teams will be rewarded for their efforts. Has it become a two-horse race for Most Valuable Player? Are the Patriots poised to defend their Super Bowl championship? And who will the Browns select first-overall in the 2018 NFL Draft? We’ve got the odds on all that and more.

Super Bowl 52 Odds

Odds to win Super Bowl 52

  • New England Patriots: 11/2
  • Philadelphia Eagles: 17/3
  • Pittsburgh Steelers: 10/1
  • Minnesota Vikings: 12/1
  • Los Angeles Rams: 13/1
  • New Orleans Saints: 13/1
  • Carolina Panthers: 16/1
  • Atlanta Falcons: 19/1
  • Jacksonville Jaguars: 19/1
  • Seattle Seahawks: 20/1
  • Los Angeles Chargers: 22/1
  • Kansas City Chiefs: 29/1
  • Baltimore Ravens: 66/1
  • Tennessee Titans: 66/1
  • Buffalo Bills: 75/1
  • Detroit Lions: 75/1
  • Oakland Raiders: 75/1
  • Washington: 75/1
  • Cincinnati Bengals: 125/1
  • Dallas Cowboys: 125/1
  • FIELD: 200/1

The New England Patriots do not have the best record in the NFL, and they’re not even the top seed in the AFC right now. But they do have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, who have brought five Super Bowl championships to New England in their 17 seasons together. That experience plus a rather easy path through the AFC is why the Patriots remain slight favorites to win Super Bowl 52.

When trying to find the team who could stop the Patriots in the AFC, the easy answer is the Pittsburgh Steelers. But the Steelers simply cannot handle the Pats. New England has won four straight against Pittsburgh, and ten of their last 13 meetings (including playoffs). Plus, the possibility of playing on the road is problematic for Ben Roethlisberger and company. The AFC team with the best chance of downing the defending champs is the Los Angeles Chargers. Philip Rivers is more than capable of putting points on the board, and the duo of Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa off the edges would give Tom Brady trouble. But they don’t even own a playoff spot at the moment.

If you want to know who the best team in the NFL is right now, there are very few arguments against the Philadelphia Eagles. Carson Wentz has been sensational under center, resulting in the Eagles ranking first in points scored. Add in a defense that possesses arguably the scariest front four in football, and this looks a lot like a championship team.

However, there is no shortage of teams in the NFC capable of stopping the Eagles’ great season in the single-elimination crapshoot that is the playoffs. The Minnesota Vikings possess a top-0five defense in both points and yards allowed, and Case Keenum is balling out. The New Orleans Saints are dangerous, especially when you consider (a) how little Drew Brees has needed to do this season thanks to the duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara in the backfield, and (b) the fact that their defense has gone from league-worst to above-average. Don’t count out the Rams, Panthers, and Falcons, either.

Odds on Super Bowl 52 Matchups

  • New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles: 10/1
  • New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings: 20/1
  • New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints: 22/1
  • Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles: 17/1
  • Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings: 69/2
  • Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints: 38/1
  • FIELD: 12/29

NFL Player Awards Odds

Odds to win 2017 NFL MVP

  • Carson Wentz, Eagles: 13/7
  • Tom Brady, Patriots: 5/2
  • Russell Wilson, Seahawks: 5/1 
  • Jared Goff, Rams: 24/1
  • Drew Brees, Saints: 29/1
  • Cam Newton, Panthers: 40/1
  • Antonio Brown, Steelers: 50/1
  • Matt Ryan, Falcons: 66/1
  • Philip Rivers, Chargers: 66/1
  • Alex Smith, Chiefs: 99/1
  • FIELD: 24/1

If you weren’t already aware, the NFL MVP is a quarterback-dominated award. Nine of the last ten recipients have been QBs, including each of the last four. With Kareem Hunt unable to keep the pace he set through the first quarter of the season, no non-QB is doing anything spectacular enough to be the rare exception.

The MVP race has boiled down to two-horses: Carson Wentz and Tom Brady, with Wentz currently in front. The second-year pivot leads the league in touchdown passes (28), has a 104.0 passer rating, and has his Eagles at the apex of the league (10-1). That’s generally the recipe for an MVP.

If Wentz does suffer some sort of late-season regression, Brady has quietly been having one of his best seasons in the pros. The two-time NFL MVP leads the league in passing yards (3,374) by a sizable margin (next closest is 3,038), trails Wentz in touchdown passes by just two (26), and leads the league in passer rating (111.7). Knowing Brady’s time could be dwindling, the voters may want to take this opportunity to honor the legend one more time.

The only other player who has a reasonable chance is Russell Wilson. The Seahawks have no ground game (23rd), a horrible offensive line, and are dealing with a number of injuries to key players, especially on the defensive side of the ball. If Wilson wills Seattle to the playoffs with some late-season heroics, he would be worthy of some votes.

Odds to win 2017 Defensive Player of the Year

  • Calais Campbell, Jaguars: 9/2
  • Everson Griffen, Vikings: 5/1
  • Jalen Ramsey, Jaguars: 6/1
  • Bobby Wagner, Seahawks: 7/1
  • Casey Hayward, Chargers: 7/1
  • FIELD: 23/8
File:Calais Campbell picture.JPG
Jaguars defensive lineman Calais Campbell (Photo: Bigmanclay04 [CC License], via Wikimedia Commons)
The key to winning NFL Defensive Player of the Year recently has been sacks. You don’t need to lead the league in sacks to win the award, but you need to record a healthy number and be more than just a pass-rush specialist. This is exactly what both Calais Campbell and Everson Griffen have done for their respective teams this season. The former has recorded 11.5 sacks while rushing the passer mostly as an interior lineman, and has been integral in Jacksonville’s improved run defense. The latter leads the NFL with 12 sacks and has played a major role in the Vikings’ second-ranked run defense.

If the voters decide to look outside of an edge player for the first time in six years, they will look no further than Jalen Ramsey, who’s been dominant in the secondary this season. The second-year corner is allowing an unbelievable 51.9 passer rating when targeted, and that’s while covering the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, TY Hilton, Antonio Brown, and Keenan Allen.

Odds to win 2017 Offensive Rookie of the Year

  • Alvin Kamara, Saints: 4/3
  • Leonard Fournette, Jaguars: 7/2
  • Kareem Hunt, Chiefs: 4/1
  • Christian McCaffrey, Panthers: 12/1
  • Joe Mixon, Bengals: 19/1
  • FIELD: 44/1

Please sit back and allow me to describe just how incredible Alvin Kamara has been this season. As a rookie, Kamara is averaging an astounding 8.4 yards per touch. No player in the last 25 years has averaged more than 8.0 yards per touch on 130-plus touches. Kamara has also joined Herschel Walker as the only players since the AFL-NFL merger with 500-plus rushing yards and 500-plus receiving yards in their first 11 games. And keep in mind, he spent the first three weeks being used inefficiently in a crowded backfield.

Kareem Hunt had a golden opportunity to reassert himself in the race for OROY last week against a Bills team allowing an average of 212 yards per game on the ground over its last three. But the rookie only managed 17 yards on 11 carries. Hunt is going to need a final quarter of the season that looked a lot like his first quarter to pry this award away from Kamara.

Odds to win 2017 Defensive Rookie of the Year

  • Marshon Lattimore, Saints: 2/1
  • TJ Watt, Steelers: 4/1
  • Carl Lawson, Bengals: 6/1
  • Tre’Davious White, Bills: 7/1
  • Myles Garrett, Browns: 9/1
  • FIELD: 9/1

If you’re trying to name the DROY by strictly looking at the stats, you won’t find Marshon Lattimore’s name near the top. But if you’ve been watching the actual games each week, there is no question Lattimore is the front-runner for the award. The 11th-overall pick has consistently removed the opponent’s top wide receiver from the game, including holding Mike Evans to just one reception for 13 yards. Lattimore will face his toughest test yet in the final five weeks, when he has to line up across from Julio Jones (twice). If the rookie can slow Jones, there would be no justification for not giving him the award.

Backup Quarterback Odds

Over/Under number of passes thrown in 2017 by …

  • Davis Webb, Giants: 60.5
  • Nathan Peterman, Bills: 50.5
  • Christian Hackenberg, Jets: 45.5
  • Paxton Lynch, Broncos: 34.5
  • Bryce Petty, Jets: 24.5
  • Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: 20.5
  • Eli Manning, Giants: 0.5
  • Josh Dobbs, Steelers: 0.5

If Davis Webb does not start at least two games for the Giants this season, it will be a completely wasted year.

The five interceptions Nathan Peterman threw in his first career start in Week 11 proved it was way too early to begin the Peterman era in Buffalo. But once they find themselves eliminated from the playoffs, they’ll give the rookie another shot.

With Paxton Lynch (ankle) expected to miss two to four weeks, it’s going to be awfully tough for the Broncos to see much more of their former first-round pick this year. But if he is ready to go in Week 17, they have to put him out there.

If anything, Josh McCown has played too well for the Jets. This is a roster that desperately needs an early pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, but McCown has found a way to win four games. With the Jets’ playoff chances dwindling (yes, I said Jets and playoff chances in the same sentence), they need to figure out what they have in Bryce Petty and, more importantly, Christian Hackenberg.

After the first half of the regular season, it looked like we may get to see Patrick Mahomes start a game or two late in the season because Alex Smith and the rest of the Chiefs stars would be resting for the playoffs. However, it’s now more likely we see Mahomes because Smith can’t move the ball and the Chiefs offense is growing desperate for a spark. With Kansas City’s AFC West lead down to just a game now, don’t be too shocked if Andy Reid turns the reins over to his rookie if the offense continues to falter.

Odds Eli Manning ______ in 2018

  • Retires: 1/1
  • Plays for the Giants: 7/1
  • Plays for the Jaguars: 9/1
  • Plays for the Broncos: 12/1
  • Plays for the Jets: 66/1
  • Plays for the Bills: 75/1
  • Plays for the Dolphins: 75/1
  • Plays for the Washington: 75/1
  • Plays for the Browns: 99/1
  • Plays for the FIELD: 13/2
Former Giants starting QB Eli Manning
Former Giants starting QB Eli Manning (By Erik Drost [CC License], via Wikimedia Commons)
Before we deem Manning’s career with the Giants over, let’s remember Ben McAdoo’s job is far from secure. Though we don’t know if the decision to bench Eli for Geno Smith came solely from the head coach, a new HC next year could repair the tarnished relationship between the two-time Super Bowl champion and the Giants franchise.

If the Giants do stick with McAdoo, or the new head coach wants to move on from Manning as well, the man Eli won those two rings with (Tom Coughlin) is stationed in Jacksonville, and the Jags may be just a league-average QB away from being dominant. Though Blake Bortles has protected the ball a little better this season, it’s mostly a result of the Jaguars not allowing him to put it in the air.

Manning said no to playing in San Diego once upon a time, why in the world would he choose to play for the Browns? He will be 37 years old in January, and has taken his fair share of punishment behind an awful offensive line over the last handful of seasons. It could be time to hang them up.

NFL Head Coach Odds

Odds to win 2017 NFL Coach of the Year

  • Sean McVay, Rams: 9/5
  • Doug Pederson, Eagles: 9/5
  • Mike Zimmer, Vikings: 6/1
  • Doug Marrone, Jaguars: 12/1
  • FIELD: 10/1

This is a two-horse race, not unlike MVP. McVay has orchestrated one of the greatest turnarounds the league has ever seen, turning Jeff Fisher’s lifeless offense into one of the most feared units in the league. Not to be outdone, Pederson has taken a 7-9 team and crafted a league-leader. Yes, surrounding Carson Wentz with ample weapons was a great move by management. But the coach should get a ton of credit, as well, not only for his QB’s development, but also for the way Philly has navigated a rash of injuries this year.

Odds to be fired by January 6th

  • Chuck Pagano, Colts: 1/5
  • Ben McAdoo, Giants: 2/5
  • Hue Jackson, Browns: 2/5
  • Dirk Koetter, Buccaneers: 1/2
  • John Fox, Bears: 1/1
  • Vance Joseph, Broncos: 2/1
  • Marvin Lewis, Bengals: 2/1
  • Jack Del Rio, Raiders: 3/1
  • Jason Garrett, Cowboys: 3/1
  • Jim Caldwell, Lions: 9/1

Pagano is as good as gone. You can only lean on the Andrew Luck injury issues for so long. This team has blown countless second-half leads this year, and that’s a coaching issue.

McAdoo and Jackson are likely to be shown the door after both teams failed to meet expectations. The Giants were supposed to be Super Bowl contenders, not first-overall pick contenders. While no one thought the Browns would be Super Bowl contenders, they sure weren’t supposed to be winless through 12 weeks; growth was expected, and growth has been absent.

You would think that Cincinnati would finally turn from long-time coach Marvin Lewis. He at least had a track record of making the playoffs to lean on in years past, but after missing out last year and probably doing the same again this season, the lethargic Cincy ownership may finally be roused from its slumber.

Over/Under number of NFL head coaches fired between now and January 6th: 4.5

 

2018 NFL Draft Odds

Odds to be selected first-overall in the 2018 NFL Draft

  • Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA: 1/1
  • Sam Darnold, QB, USC: 6/1
  • Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville: 9/1
  • Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State: 12/1
  • Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State: 12/1
  • Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma: 99/1
  • Mason Rudolph, QB, OK State: 199/1
  • FIELD: 9/1

Rosen wasn’t the favorite heading into the year — that label belonged to Darnold — but he’s looked like the better prospect over the course of the year. Some of that is thanks to his own play, but some is also a result of Darnold not meeting his huge hype. While most mock drafts have Louisville’s Jackson coming off the board considerably later, he’s the closest this draft has to another Deshaun Watson, and whichever GM owns the no. 1 pick may be terrified on missing out on that type of player after seeing Watson tear up the league as a rookie.

Over/Under number of QBs taken in the first-round of 2018 NFL Draft: 4.5

Do five QBs in this class possess first-round talent? Absolutely not. Do desperate teams reach for pivots every year? Absolutely yes. Rosen, Darnold (if he declares), and Jackson are virtual locks. Josh Allen (Wyoming) has a solid chance, as well, and Mayfield may prove too intriguing.

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