- Baker Mayfield has been armed with major weapons for 2019, including the recent addition of Odell Beckham Jr
- Browns QB set NFL rookie record with 27 touchdown passes last season
- What will Mayfield’s numbers look like in 2019?
Baker Mayfield is in football heaven right now.
— Dustin Fox (@DustinFox37) March 13, 2019
This is a statement that would not have made sense when he was called to the podium as the first-overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.
The brash pivot out of Oklahoma made noise in a season that brought the Browns – who were coming off an 0-16 campaign just a season ago – back to respectability, especially after ridding themselves of the Hue Jackson debacle.
Management has done their part to arm their QB, essentially dunking on the rest of the league this offseason.
Their home run came Tuesday night, when they landed one of the most electric talents in the NFL.
With Odell Beckham supercharging an offense already expected to help vault the Browns back into the playoffs, they now seem like the early favorite for the AFC North title.
With higher expectations, how will Mayfield respond? Honestly, get ready for some real fireworks, folks. Let’s bet accordingly.
2019 Baker Mayfield Passing Props
|Prop||Projection||Over Odds at BetOnline||Under Odds at BetOnline|
|Passing Yards 2019 Regular Season||4200.5||-115||-115|
|Passing Touchdowns 2019 Regular Season||29.5||-115||-115|
|Interceptions 2019 Regular Season||15.5||-115||-115|
*Odds taken March 13, 2019
Baker Mayfield 2019 Passing Yards
It is amazing how Mayfield blossomed once the team removed itself from Jackson’s clutch.
In the second half of the season, armed with new offensive coordinator (and now head coach) Freddie Kitchens, the Oklahoma product starting spinning.
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/7rpagGkNcw
— NFL (@NFL) December 23, 2018
He threw 19 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and posted a 106.2 passer rating, while guiding the Browns to a 5-3 record. All told, he finished with 3,725 passing yards – good for sixth all-time among NFL rookies.
A little closer, however, and you recognize how special that figure becomes, as Mayfield accomplished the feat in 13 starts, while everyone ahead of him played all 16 games.
If you measure just his starts, Mayfield ranks first all-time in average passing yards per game by a rookie at 286.5.
Completion % on targets 20+ yards downfield
Baker Mayfield as rookie: 44.4%
Eli when targeting Odell the last 3 years: 29.2%
— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) March 13, 2019
Over a full season, he’d need to average 265 yards a game to top that mark.
The addition of Beckham will not only help Mayfield’s production, but will also unlock Jarvis Landry’s underneath game, which he was forced to abandon as he had to assume some de facto No. 1 receiver duties and try to stretch the field.
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/UedVjY62Yo
— NFL (@NFL) September 30, 2018
But back to Beckham: in those final eight games of last year, Mayfield led the NFL in deep throw completions with 34. This combination of a QB willing to sling it and a receiver capable of tracking it is going to be fun to watch.
The Pick: Over 4,200.5 yards (-115)
Baker Mayfield 2018 Statistics
Baker Mayfield 2019 Touchdown Passes
Again, here we have a guy who set the NFL record for rookie TD passes in a season, passing a couple of household names in Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson in the process, and somehow it felt … low?
Baker Mayfield drops a DIME to Breshad Perriman (former Raven bust) for a 31-yard TD pic.twitter.com/p6UKzxPJXa
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) December 16, 2018
His consistency stands out. He’s thrown at least one TD pass in each of his 13 starts (the only game he didn’t was his professional debut, when he came in to relieve Tyrod Taylor in a win over the Jets).
Two more games and he matches Brad Johnson, 11 more games he passes Kurt Warner.
Odell Beckham's most frequent routes vs Baker Mayfield.
*Baker Mayfield threw TDs on over 14% of slant targets w Kitchens as OC. That is insane. That is also the route Beckham was targeted most on in 2018. pic.twitter.com/qwGfAcbiac
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 13, 2019
You know what would really help him? A touchdown machine.
And wouldn’t you know, Beckham is that dude. Before he tore up his ankle in 2017, he no less than 10 TD receptions in each of this first three years, with a high of 13. He’s tallied 44 TDs in 59 career games.
Last season was Odell Beckham Jr.'s 4th career season with 75 catches, 1,000 yards and 6 TD…
— Kevin Boilard (@247KevinBoilard) March 13, 2019
Even in last year’s comeback, with the corpse of Eli Manning hampering the offense, he still had six TD catches.
Could a Nick Chubb monster year eat up some of those majors?
I think there’s plenty to go around.
The Pick: Over 29.5 touchdown passes (-115)
Baker Mayfield 2019 Interceptions
Like TD receptions for wide receivers, I tend to shy away from QB interception props, because there are too many variables, like tipped balls, or DBs dropping sure interceptions.
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 31, 2018
With that being said, Mayfield is built to push it to the limit, and with that, there could be giveaways.
Perhaps none was more devastating than the crushing season-ender in Baltimore, which vaulted the Ravens into the postseason.
OBJ saw an accurate pass (on-frame or in-stride) on 50% of his targets last year, last among WRs. Baker was 4th in accurate throw rate week 9 on (Brady, Brees, Mahomes)
— George Chahrouri (@PFF_George) March 13, 2019
He finished the year with 14 picks, and this can go one of two ways next year: (1) Mayfield could struggle, and throw a lot of picks, like young quarterbacks tend to do. Or, (2) he can exploit his underrated accuracy, and really pick apart teams week in and week out.
I can’t really hide it. I don’t want to pump these guys up too much, but this Browns team with Mayfield is going to be something to behold.
The Pick: Under 15.5 interceptions (-115)