- You can wager on Jacoby Brissett’s 2019 season total props
- Brissett’s touchdown and passing yardage over/unders are relatively low, while his interception prop is very high
- What’s the best bet for each prop?
The Jacoby Brissett hate has gone too far. He’s not in the same class as Andrew Luck, but there’s plenty of reason to believe the Colts can be successful with him under center. This will be his second season commanding Indy’s offense, and online sportsbooks expect much loftier totals from him this season than in 2017.
Jacoby Brissett 2019 Season Total Props
|Prop||Total||Over Odds||Under Odds|
*All odds taken 08/30/19.
When Luck was sidelined two years ago, Brissett threw for 3,098 yards, 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 15 starts. That season, he played behind the fifth-worst pass blocking offensive line according to Pro Football Focus, and the Colts threw the ball at the sixth-lowest rate.
That won’t be the case under Frank Reich and, despite early speculation that Brissett wouldn’t last the whole season, Indy’s new starter should have plenty of opportunity to eclipse 3,500 passing yards.
Jacoby Brissett Over/Under 3,500 Passing Yards
Brissett has a big arm but has been criticized for a lack of accuracy. If we dig a bit further, we uncover that most of his inaccurate throws in 2017 came while under pressure. As mentioned, the Colts’ o-line was a nightmare that season. When they did keep Brissett’s pocket clean, he was on target with 80.7% of his throws.
— Locked On Colts Podcast (@LockedOnColts) August 25, 2019
That’s great news for Brissett truthers because Indy’s o-line has gone from a weakness to an extreme strength. They allowed the fewest sacks in league last season, and if Brissett was able to put up 3,100 passing yards in 2017, think of what he could do if he’s not constantly under siege.
Brissett will also have the luxury of playing for a pass-first coach, something he did not experience in 2017. Under Reich in 2018, the Colts ranked 9th in pass-play percentage, and Andrew Luck set career highs in attempts, completion rate, and QBR. Luck’s 639 attempts were the second-most in the NFL, and 170 more than Brissett had the season before.
No one expects Brissett to match the 4,593 passing yards that Luck put up last season, but don’t forget that was on a 10-win Indy team. Oddsmakers currently have the Colts projected to win just 6.5 games, and if they’re trailing as often as predicted, Brissett’s pass attempts will only increase.
It’s easy to imagine multiple scenarios where he flies over 3,500 passing yards.
Pick: Over 3,500 Passing Yards (-115)
Jacoby Brissett Over/Under 22.5 TD Passes
Brissett has never put up monster TD numbers, even dating back to his collegiate career. He averaged just 21.5 touchdown passes in his two years as a starter at NC State. In his only full season as an NFL starter, he averaged less than one TD pass per game.
That could all change this season, though, because of Reich’s aggressive play calling, especially in the red zone.
“This guy doesn’t blink.” pic.twitter.com/GW7vZ3QKP9
— GMFB (@gmfb) August 27, 2019
Indy attempted the second-most red zone passes in 2018 and had the highest success rate on throws inside their opponents 20, according to Sharp Football Stats. When Reich was in Philadelphia in 2017, the Eagles had the seventh-highest success rate on red zone throws. Brissett should have plenty of opportunity to rack up scores through the air.
With Reich calling plays in Philly, back-up Nick Foles averaged over two touchdown throws in games he started and finished. Expect similar production from Brissett.
Pick: Over 22.5 TD Passes (-115)
Jacoby Brissett Over/Under 13.5 Interceptions
Brissett has always been very good at taking care of the football. He had a 1.5% interception rate in his lone season as the Colts starter, and a 1.4% interception rate in his two full seasons at NC State.
He’s playing in a scheme designed by one of the NFL’s premier play callers, and his offensive line should keep pressure at bay on the majority of snaps.
Jacoby Brissett found 2018 breakout star Eric Ebron for a touchdown.pic.twitter.com/NSlpuInMgq
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) August 17, 2019
He completed 67% of his passes this preseason without a pick, and unless he morphs into a huge risk taker, something we’ve never seen before, he should stay under this total.
Pick: Under 13.5 Interceptions (-115)