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2019 Jimmy Garoppolo Props: Over/Under for Passing Yards Listed at Just 4,000

San Fran's Jimmy Garoppolo
On his return from injury, will 49ers' QB Jimmy Garoppolo throw for over 4,000 yards? Photo By Casey McNeil (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Jimmy Garoppolo signed a long-term contract worth $137.5 million with the San Francisco 49ers after being acquired from the New England Patriots in a trade
  • He suffered a torn ACL in Week 3 against the Kansas City Chiefs last season and missed the rest of the year
  • Garoppolo has never played more than six games in a single season

Jimmy Garoppolo is healthy and set to lead the 49ers to big things in 2019. While there is optimism in San Francisco it appears the oddsmakers may have been a little ambitious when setting prop bet lines for this season.

Jimmy Garoppolo Props

Prop Line Over Odds Under Odds
Regular Season Passing TDs 25.5 +110 -140
Regular Season Passing Yards 4,000 -115 -115

*Odds taken 8/16/19

With the 27-year-old healthy and set to start in Week 1 the oddsmakers have set the lines pretty high. I think there is big time value in betting both “Under” bets for Garoppolo.  Colin Cowherd may disagree, but that’s only helping the price you get when you take my advice.

Garoppolo Has Not Proven to Be an Elite QB

For all the hype surrounding Garoppolo the fact remains he’s never played in more than six games in a single season. Tough to believe when you consider he’s sporting a contract worth $137.5 million with over $74 million in guarantees.

Don’t let the brashness of the 49ers’ front office sway your bet here. He has never proven to be elite in the NFL to this point.

Only 12 quarterbacks had 26 or more touchdowns last year and the same number passed for more than 4,000 yards. I’d like to see Garoppolo prove he could reach that stratosphere, and stay on the field, before relying on him to hit those numbers.

Projected Over 16 Games Garoppolo Still Falls Short

It takes some creative accounting to figure out what Jimmy G would look like over a full season but we crunched the numbers. He played six games for the 49ers in 2017 and was injured in Week 3 against the Kansas City Chiefs last season. Let’s combine the two seasons and work with per game averages to give us a better look.

Games Completions/Game Passing Yards/Game Touchdowns/Game
9 20.3 253 1.33

The numbers look pedestrian when you break it down that way don’t they? The completion number ranks behind Eli Manning, Case Keenum and Kirk Cousins. That’s not exactly the company you’d like to keep.  Much like his completions per game, his touchdowns per game also rank in the bottom half of the league.

Fade the 49ers QB This Season

I think it’s entirely possible Garoppolo develops into the type of quarterback you’ll want to bet on in the future. He has an offense with some weapons and he’s being coached by one of the top offensive minds in all of football with Kyle Shanahan. That said, I don’t think he’s there yet and if his training camp is any indication, even if he stays healthy he could be in trouble this year.

I’m not in the business of betting on things this far before they’ve been seen. Garoppolo hasn’t proven he can match these numbers or that he can stay healthy, so I’ll fade him and make some cash in the mean time.

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