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2019 Le’Veon Bell Props After Signing With Jets: Total Touchdowns Set at 10.5

Le'Veon Bell with the Steelers
Le'Veon Bell has signed with the New York Jets in free agency. Photo from @cody_caster (Twitter)
  • Le’Veon Bell signed a 4 year, $52.5 million contract with the New York Jets
  • Bell sat out last season due to a contract dispute with the Pittsburgh Steelers
  • See what two of our online sports betting sites expect out of him in 2019

Le’Veon Bell got his green and now he’s back in green. He was drafted out of Michigan State and now he’ll be wearing New York Jets green for the next four years.

To give you a reason to track his production in year one with New York, BetOnline & Bovada have both released prop bets for the superstar running back’s return to the NFL.

2019 Le’Veon Bell Props

Le’Veon Bell Prop BetOnline Projection BetOnline Odds Bovada Projection Bovada Odds
Receiving Yards 600.5 (O-115/U-115) 650 (O-120/U-120)
Rushing Yards 1200.5 (O-115/U-115) 1225 (O-110/U-130)
Touchdowns 10.5 (O-115/U-115) 10.5 (O-120/U-120)

*All odds taken March 14

There’s a lot to unwind here, so let’s go prop by prop and I’ll outline where you can find the value.

Can Bell Serve as Darnold’s Check-Down?

I’m taking the OVER here, so BetOnline setting the total 50 yards lower than Bovada is the enticing play.

When Bell last suited up for the Steelers, he finished the year with 655 receiving yards, down from his career high of 854 back in 2014.

Bell is the perfect match for second year QB Sam Darnold out of the back field. What better way to boost a young QB’s confidence than to have him completing short pass after short pass to the sure-handed Bell?

He may not put up video game numbers, but assuming Bell plays all 16 games, to hit the over, he’d need to average only 38 yards per game. That seems like a more than attainable number and the bet that I like the most on the board.


Offensive Line Could Cause Bell Problems on the Ground

This isn’t an article that’s all positive telling you to hammer the over on everything, I promise.

One of the other reasons I like the receiving yards over is because that will quickly become the easiest way to get Bell the ball and a chance to succeed.

The New York Jets offensive line needs work and will ultimately be an issue that needs to be addressed. They could, of course, focus on offensive linemen at the draft, but even still, it’s going to be hard for Bell to reach the lofty total of 1,225 set by Bovada.

It’s also not out of the question Bell will be rusty either.  He sat out an entire season in a contract dispute with the Pittsburgh Steelers and should be given some time to catch up to speed.  While the receiving yards total builds in some cushion, this total certainly does not.  Bell ran for 1,291 yards behind a much better offensive line 2 years ago, so expecting him to nearly match that total with the Jets is too big of an ask.


How Often Will Bell Find The End Zone?

Both books have the total at 10.5 and that number is a little rich for my liking.

In the last three full seasons he’s played, Bell tallied 11, nine, and 11 total touchdowns. Again, he could be rusty, and again, he’s playing with much less talent around him than he did in Pittsburgh.

You could use the logic that with less talent around him, he’ll eat up all the opportunities, which isn’t crazy, but I still think 11 touchdowns is an aggressive ask.

His new album may be called “Life’s A Gamble” but there’s no reason for you to take the risk and gamble on him to be over 10.5 touchdowns. Bell is replacing Isaiah Crowell, who had only 6 TDs last year, and will certainly be better, but not 5 touchdowns better.


Odds Bell Leads the NFL in Rushing

Will Le’Veon Bell Lead The NFL In Rushing Yards? Odds Bovada
Yes +500
No -900

Here’s one more bonus prop, courtesy Bovada, that you could absolutely use as a low risk investment.

Last year, Ezekiel Elliot led the NFL with 1,434 yards rushing. The year prior, Kareem Hunt was tops with 1,327 yards.

I don’t believe Bell can get to the 1,200 mark, which means not only do I think this is a no, I think it’s an emphatic no.

He will be rusty out of the gate, which will hurt. He doesn’t have much talent around him in New York and that will hurt, as well. Plus, he may be more valuable as a receiver to the Jets, which is another strike against his rushing numbers.

It’s rare that a prop that requires you to pony up and pay -900 is a smart play, but this is such a good bet there is actually value in that number.

It’s not worth paying unless you have a deep bank roll. But if you do, what’s the difference between this prop and say, an investment in a great stock? You know it’s almost a lock to hit. So pay the price, wait the year, and buy yourself something special when you rake in the cash once the regular season is over.


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