2026 Super Bowl Player Props – All the Data & Analysis to Make the Best Bets for Seahawks vs Patriots

When you say “Super Bowl props,” many people will think of the more obscure props, like Super Bowl halftime show odds or betting on national anthem odds. While those props are a lot of fun, my mind remains focused on the same props we have been betting all season – player props. With it being the Super Bowl, sportsbooks do put out a bit more of an exhaustive list of passing, rushing, and receiving props for the game.

But again, I am remaining focused on the more traditional over/unders. In order to find edges in lines that sportsbooks have had two weeks to set and adjust, you need to know these players and teams inside and out. Allow me to pull back the curtain for you, so you can have a look at each of the quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers (tight ends too) suiting up for Super Bowl 60, as well as the two (very good) defenses we will see on Sunday.

Below you’ll find all the data related to betting passing, rushing, and receiving props, along with my favorite Super Bowl prop bets.

Passing Props | Receiving Props | Rushing Props | Prop Picks

Super Bowl Passing Props Odds & Stats

Among the two Super Bowl QBs, sportsbooks expect Sam Darnold to perform slightly better than Drake Maye. Darnold’s over/under for passing yards, pass attempts, and completions are all a little higher, while his odds to throw for over 1.5 touchdowns are far better, and his odds to throw an interception are slightly worse.

The passing props above are from DraftKings, but the lines are only accurate as of Friday night. Make sure you check out our NFL player props tool to find all the latest lines, as well as the best odds for either side.

Here’s a look at how the two QBs stack up against the defenses they are preparing to face on Sunday.

Sam Darnold vs Patriots Defense

The Patriots defense has allowed the 7th-fewest gross passing yards per game at just 200.8 this season. You’ll notice Darnold’s season average for passing yards is slightly higher than what his over/under is for Super Bowl 60, but that’s the result of New England’s strong pass defense.

Another testament to the Patriots’ strong defense is Darnold’s averages for attempts and completions are both slightly lower than the over/unders set for him on Sunday. So, sportsbooks are saying he will have to throw more than normal, but will produce even less with the higher volume.

Just looking at the passing yards prop, Darnold has thrown for at least 231 yards in 11 of 19 games this season, which includes one of two playoff games so far. The Patriots defense has only allowed 231+ gross passing yards in 5 of 20 games, and no team has achieved this number against them in the playoffs to this point.

Darnold has played three games against defenses who rank in the top 10 for (fewest) gross passing yards allowed. He did not throw for 231+ yards in any of those games, as 218 passing yards was his best performance, which came against the Saints in Week 3. To be fair, Darnold only needed to attempt 18 passes in that game, though, as the Seahawks won 44-13. His worst performance was 128 yards against the Vikings, but he also wasn’t really needed a ton, as his team won 26-0.

Drake Maye vs Seahawks Defense

The Seahawks defense ranked 13th in gross passing yards allowed per game at just 217.7. Similar to above, this is why Drake Maye’s over/under for passing yards in Super Bowl 60 is well below his season average. There is obviously a feeling that the defense Maye is about to see is notably better than what he has faced this season, as his line is about 23 yards lower than his season average.

Sportsbooks don’t expect Maye’s volume to change much, as his lines for pass attempts and completions are pretty close to his season averages.

Isolating the passing yards prop, Maye has thrown for at least 224 yards in 14 of 20 games this season. However, he has only accomplished the feat once in his three playoff games so far. Seattle has only allowed 224 gross passing yards in 8 of 19 games this season, which includes one of two playoff games.

Maye has played eight games against defenses who rank in the top 13 for fewest gross passing yards allowed, and he exceeded 223.5 passing yards in five of the eight.

Super Bowl Receiving Props Odds & Stats

I’ll start with the Seahawks receivers against the Patriots defense. The table below includes the receiving props for Super Bowl 60 as well as their season averages.

Looking to Seahawks pass-catchers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, unsurprisingly, has the highest lines for receiving yards and receptions. Both are the highs for the game as well. But JSN’s receiving yard line is about 10 yards less of his season average. Again, this is a result of the Patriots defense being strong against the pass, and the likelihood of Mike Vrabel scheming to slow Smith-Njigba down.

JSN has faced three defenses who rank in the top 7 for fewest gross passing yards allowed, like New England does, and he has gone over 93.5 receiving yards in two of three. Seattle’s reliance on Smith-Njigba in the passing game, evident by his 9.4 targets per game, has made him pretty matchup-proof to this point.

Both George Holani and Kenneth Walker III are seeing receiving lines higher than their season averages, thanks to Zach Charbonnet not suiting up for this one.

A couple notable trends for Seahawks receivers vs their current receiving yards lines:

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over 93.5 receiving yards in 12 of 19 games this season (63.2%)
• Though Rashid Shaheed has gone over 21.5 receiving yards in 13 of 20 games this season, he has only done it in 4 of 11 games as a Seahawk (36.4%)
• Jake Bobo has only gone over 0.5 receiving yards in 4 of 13 games this season, but he has done so in both playoff games so far
• While Kenneth Walker III has only gone over 22.5 receiving yards in 7 of 19 games this season, he has gone over in both playoff games so far (with Charbonnet out)

And then here are the Patriots receivers versus the Seahawks defense:

The Patriots pass attack is much more balanced than Seattle’s, as they do not have a single player with an over/under greater than 46 for receiving yards, but they have five players with lines of at least 24.5. Stefon Diggs is the New England pass-catcher seeing the highest receiving lines, with his over/under for yards set at 45.5 and his receptions at 4.5.

Every single one of New England’s pass-catchers is seeing a lower over/under than their season average for receiving yards. The only player seeing a line notably higher than their season average in any receiving prop is Rhamondre Stevenson’s receptions. His over/under is 3.5, when his season average is just 2.3. This is the result of TreVeyon Henderson taking a clear backseat to Stevenson in the playoffs.

And here are a some notable players’ performances versus their respective receiving yards lines to mention:

• Mack Hollins has gone over 26.5 receiving yards in 10 of 16 games this season, including 9 of his last 11
• TreVeyon Henderson has gone over 3.5 receiving yards in 12 of 20 games this season (60%), but only in 1 of 3 playoff games so far
• Stefon Diggs has gone under 45.5 receiving yards in all three playoff games so far

Receiving Statistic Splits vs Super Bowl Defenses

Finally, here’s a look at how each position fares against these two defenses when it comes to receptions and receiving yards:

Both of these defenses are strong against wide receivers, ranking among the top 4 for fewest yards allowed to wide receivers.

New England is middle of the pack when it comes to defending TEs and RBs in the passing game, with their worst ranking coming against tight ends. The Patriots allow the 13th-most receiving yards and 11th-most receptions to tight ends.

The Seahawks, on the other hand, have allowed a disproportional amount of receptions and receiving yards to both tight ends and running backs. They have surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards and 6th-most receptions to TEs, but are even worse against RBs, giving up the 6th-most receiving yards and most receptions per game to running backs.

Super Bowl Rushing Props Odds & Stats

Kenneth Walker III has the highest over/unders for rushing yards (71.5), rushing attempts (18.5), and rushing + receiving yards (99.5) in the Super Bowl. He is tied for the highest line for longest rush (14.5), but his odds to go over are far better than Drake Maye’s. Walker’s rushing line is actually higher than both Patriots’ running backs combined.

The Patriot running back with the highest rushing over/under is Rhamondre Stevenson at 50.5. Drake Maye’s rushing line is a fair bit higher than TreVeyon Henderson’s.

Now let’s breakdown the two feature backs against the defenses they will face on Sunday.

Kenneth Walker III vs Patriots Defense

The data above is focused on the Patriots defense versus running backs. The data you are seeing does not factor in rushes by wide receivers or quarterbacks.

The Patriots allow the 2nd-fewest rushing yards per game and the 3rd-fewest rushing yards per carry to running backs in the NFL. While Kenneth Walker III’s rushing over/under is higher than his season average, it’s a fair bit lower than what his playoff rushing average has been – which is crucial to consider, since he was splitting the backfield with Zach Charbonnet during the regular season.

Walker has averaged 89 rushing yards per game in the playoffs, up from just 60.4 in the regular season, on 4.68 yards per carry. But due to the Patriots’ stingy run defense, sportsbooks have brought his rushing over/under down to just 71.5, which nearly matches what New England gives up to RBs on the ground per game.

Rhamondre Stevenson vs Seahawks Defense

Same as the above, the data for the Seahawks defense is solely focused on how they fare versus running backs. It does not include rushes by receivers or QBs.

The Seahawks allow the 3rd-fewest rushing yards per game and the fewest rushing yards per attempt to running backs in the league. Stevenson’s over/under for rushing yards in the Super Bowl is a little higher than his season average, but, like Walker, he has also taken over his backfield in the playoffs – not due to injury on his side, though.

Stevenson averaged just 43.1 rushing yards per game in the regular season, but has averaged 64.7 per game in the playoffs. His rookie backfield mate has taken a clear backseat in the playoffs, as Stevenson has out-carried him 51 to 24 through three games so far.

So, sportsbooks have really brought Stevenson’s over/under for rushing yards down when considering his playoff average, but he is preparing for the toughest defense in the league against the run.

Rushing Statistic Splits vs Super Bowl Defenses

And here’s a look at the distribution of rushing yards allowed and rushing attempts against by position for these two defenses:

Both defenses allow a very similar amount of rushing yards to running backs and quarterbacks. The one weakness that stands out is the Patriots allowing wide receivers to rush for 7.5 yards per game against them. WRs are averaging 8.82 yards per rushing attempt against New England.

This will certainly interest anyone looking to bet Rashid Shaheed or Jaxon Smith-Njigba rushing yards.

Best Super Bowl Player Prop Picks

After ingesting all of this data and analyzing the trends, I have landed on the following picks for Super Bowl 60:

1. Drake Maye 230+ Passing Yards – Don’t read too much into Maye’s playoff passing yards, since about half of his snaps have been in horrific conditions. I don’t believe the Patriots are going to have much success running the ball against Seattle’s defense, and feel the Seahawks will force the Patriots to remain aggressive on offense all game. There are ways to beat the Seahawks through the air (TE and RB), and I am betting Josh McDaniels will have a plan to attack those areas of opportunity. The best odds for this are +107 at DraftKings.
2. Mack Hollins 30+ Receiving Yards – When Hollins suits up, he racks up receiving yards for the Patriots. Over his last seven games, he is averaging 54.8 receiving yards per game. He has recorded at least 30 receiving yards in each of his last three games, and six of his last seven. I like Hollins to continue producing. The best odds for this bet are +124 at FanDuel. I’m even sprinkling a little on 40+ at +210 odds.
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba 110+ Receiving Yards – I discussed this one a fair bit in my Super Bowl predictions article. You can read my full analysis there.

If you want to see a similar deep dive into TDs, check out my Super Bowl anytime touchdown betting guide.