Upcoming Match-ups

49ers’ Super Bowl Odds Were Listed at +4500 in Week 1, Chiefs’ Odds Reached +1400 After Mahomes Injury

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The Niners were as high as +4500 to win the Super Bowl this season. Photo by INFORMATYUC (Twitter).
  • The San Francisco 49ers opened the NFL regular season at odds of +4500 to reach Super Bowl 54
  • In the Super Bowl opening line, the Kansas City Chiefs were the +733 favorites
  • However, KC saw those odds climb as high as +1400 during the season following an injury to quarterback Patrick Mahomes

Over the course of the 2019-20 NFL season, both the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers endured their share of ups and downs en route through their respective paths to a showdown in Super Bowl 54.

Losers in last season’s AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs were listed at +733 favorites in the opening Super Bowl 54 future book. But those odds ended up growing as high as +1400 after quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a dislocated kneecap.

The 49ers were well down the list in the opening Super Bowl odds at +3433 but that was understandable. The Niners were coming off a 4-12 season in which QB Jimmy Garoppolo was lost for the season in Week 3 due to a knee injury.

The Chiefs are -120 favorites to win the Super Bowl. The 49ers are even money to win the game.

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Odds

Team Opening Odds Longest Odds Current Odds
San Francisco 49ers +3433 +4500 EVEN
Kansas City Chiefs +733 +1400 -120

Odds taken Jan. 20th.

Those are the closest odds since Super Bowl 49, when the game between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks kicked off as a pick.

Been a Long Time For Chiefs & 49ers

Although they played in the big game as recently as Super Bowl 47, you’ve got to go all the way back to 1995 to find a  Super Bowl victory for the 49ers. They beat the San Diego Chargers 49-26 in Super Bowl 29.

That’s a blip on the radar compared to the wait the Chiefs have endured. They’re playing in their first Super Bowl since 1970. That was the final season prior to the AFL-NFL merger, and the AFL champion Chiefs downed the Minnesota Vikings 23-7.

Kansas City also played in the first Super Bowl, losing 35-10 to the Green Bay Packers.

San Francisco is 5-1 in Super Bowl play. That’s the best winning percentage of any team that’s played in at least three Super Bowl games.

Changing Places

The Chiefs and 49ers find themselves in unusual territory as they ready for the Super Bowl.

KC was a 12-point underdog while winning outright over the Vikings in Super Bowl 4. The Chiefs were 14-point underdogs in their Super Bowl 1 loss to the Packers.

 

San Fran was favored in all six visits to the game. Even in their Super Bowl 48 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, the Niners were favored by 4.5 points. They covered as a Super Bowl-record 18.5-point chalk in their win over the Chargers.

Nothing Could Be Finer

Even though San Fran opened the season 8-0, it took the oddsmakers some time to get on board with the upstart 49ers. It wasn’t until Oct. 8 that they finally moved past the defending NFC champion Los Angeles Rams to gain the shortest Super Bowl odds of any NFC West team.

On Oct. 17, the Niners were +900 to win the Super Bowl, the first time all season they’d dropped below +1000. They were +475 by Nov. 3.

A 4-3 mark over the second half of the season saw their odds climb back to +600. But a season-ending win over the Seahawks earned the Niners the NFC’s #1 seed and the best average odds of any NFC team at +383.

Following their 27-7 Divisional Round win over the Vikings, the 49ers were listed as +165 Super Bowl favorites for a day until the Chiefs surpassed them in the betting line.

Mahomes Injury Scare For Chiefs

Mahomes suffered his injury during a Week 7 victory over the Denver Broncos.

A two-game losing skid already sent Kansas City’s odds from +400 to a season-high +800, but the climb was just beginning. With backup QB Matt Moore under center, the Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds plateaued at +1400 on Oct. 29.

Mahomes missed just two games. He returned for a 35-32 loss to the Tennesee Titans. Since that setback, KC is 8-0.

The Chiefs entered the postseason at odds of +400 to win the Super Bowl. They became the favorite to win the big game on Jan. 13 at odds of +125.

Two Explosive Offenses

The potency of the KC offense is showing in postseason play. They spotted Houston a 24-0 lead and roared back to win 51-31. They fell behind 10-0 to Tennessee and won 35-24.

Seven players caught at least 26 passes. Tight end Travis Kelce went for 1129 yards and five touchowns. Tyreek Hill was on the receiving end of seven TDs. Rookie Mecole Hardman found the end zone six times from 26 receptions.

The 49ers are also loaded with talented receivers such as Emmanuel Sanders, rookie Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne, who caught five TD passes. Tight end George Kittle snared five TDs and 1053 yards.

San Francisco does an opponent in with its ground game, though. Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida each topped 600 yards. The Niners are the first NFL team with three 600-yard rushers since the 1978 Patriots.

Defensive Edge For 49ers

During the regular season, San Francisco was the NFL’s #4 offense (381.1 yards per game) and #4 defense (281.1 ypg).  Kansas City was the #6 offense (379.2 ypg) and #17 defense (349.6 ypg). The Chiefs were 26th at stopping the run (128.2 ypg).

This is the one area where the Niners hold a significant edge. San Francisco is the NFL’s #1 pass defense (169.2 ypg). Since safety Jacquiski Tartt, linebacker Kwon Alexander and defensive Dee Ford returned from injury, San Fran’s defense is again menacing the opposition.

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