- The Buffalo Bills are handing the reigns over to Josh Allen in Week 2, and there are plenty of props surrounding the rookie
- Bovada is also asking if FitzMagic can continue for the Bucs as they take on the Super Bowl champs
- Can the game-breaking Tyreek Hill victimize the 49ers like he did the Chargers in Week 1?
With Week 1 in the books, there was the typical drama that comes with football’s return.
The Bills tried to roll with Nathan Peterman. It didn’t go well. Now it’s Josh Allen’s turn against the team that embarrassed Peterman last year.
Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick stunned the Saints in New Orleans. The Beard has done it before, as before Tyrod Taylor, Fitzy was a game away from ending the Bills playoff-less streak.
And then there’s Tyreek Hill. The speed demon just continues to run all over everyone. Instead of doing all the work on screen passes from Alex Smith, now he’s chasing down long bombs from Patrick Mahomes.
All three feature heavily in Week 2’s prop picks.
Prop #1: Can Josh Allen Rack Up the Yards Against LA?
|How Many Yards Will Josh Allen Throw For?||Bovada Odds|
|Over 217.5 yards||-105|
|Under 217.5 yards||-135|
All eyes will be on Buffalo this week, to find out whether or not the Chargers can do the same thing to Josh Allen that they did to Nate Peterman last year.
The Bolts will be angry too, after Patrick Mahomes ripped them apart for 250 yards and four TDs.
The track record for rookie QBs in their first start, using 2017 as a guide, is sketchy at best.
Peterman had the worst 2017 debut, but you knew that already.
Josh Allen actually throws the ball more than 10 yards pic.twitter.com/J4ZwY43T37
— Michael Slater (@michaelrslater) September 10, 2018
The best? Maybe it was Mahomes’ 284 yards against the Broncos. But he didn’t throw a TD.
Debut Performances by Rookie Quarterbacks in 2017
|Rookie QB’s First Start in 2017||Yards||TD||INT|
|DeShone Kizer, CLE||222||1||1|
|Mitchell Trubisky, CHI||128||1||1|
|Deshaun Watson, HOU||125||0||0|
|Patrick Mahomes, KC||284||0||1|
|Nathan Peterman, BUF||66||0||5|
|CJ Beathard, SF||235||0||0|
In fact, no rookie QB threw more than one touchdown in their first start in 2017. Three crossed the 217 yard threshold though.
Allen didn’t wrack up a ton of yards against Wyoming though. And he likely won’t in a rushed NFL debut.
Pick: Take the under.
Prop #2: How Many Times Will the Chargers Pick Off Josh Allen?
|How Many Interceptions Will Josh Allen throw?||Bovada Odds|
|Over 0.5 interceptions||-190|
|Under 0.5 interceptions||+145|
In terms of interceptions, how did rookie QBs do in 2017?
Well, of the six quarterbacks who made their first career start last season, four of them finished the day with a pick.
Allen was clean in the preseason, chucking two touchdowns to no picks, but that’s the preseason.
Josh Allen #Bills
College Career vs. Power-5 Opponents
Pass Attempts: 97
Passer Rating: 30.7
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) April 27, 2018
In college, he threw 21 interceptions in 643 pass attempts. That works out to a 3.2% interception percentage.
In the NFL he’d have the seventh-highest percentage among qualifying quarterbacks.
Pick: The Chargers come away with at least one pick in Allen’s debut.
Prop #3: How Many Touchdowns Will Fitzpatrick Throw Against the Eagles?
|How Many Touchdowns Will Ryan Fitzpatrick Throw?||Bovada Odds|
|Over 1.5 touchdowns||+130|
|Under 1.5 touchdowns||-170|
Fitz-magic was in full force in Week 1.
Stepping in for Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Bucs to an upset win over the Saints. In the process he put up 417 yards and four touchdowns.
Ryan Fitzpatrick to Chris Godwin (@CGtwelve_)…
END ZONE! #GoBucs
— NFL (@NFL) September 9, 2018
It was his first four touchdown game since 2015.
So can he do it again?
The Eagles didn’t give up a passing touchdown to the Falcons in Week 1. They only gave up 251 yards through the air too.
Last year they were pretty consistent, giving up 1.6 TD/game on the road and 1.4/game on the road.
They also had four road games where they only gave up one or fewer passing TDs.
Ryan Fitzpatrick to DeSean Jackson for the 58-yard TOUCHDOWN pic.twitter.com/IgJtp1Lfq9
— FlurrySports (@FlurrySports) September 9, 2018
Their offense was better last year though. Nick Foles didn’t inspire much confidence in the opener. They’re still missing Alshon Jeffrey, and if Zach Ertz struggles with drops again, they’ll leave Tampa with a short field.
Pick: The Beard stuns the world again and drops two TDs on Philly.
Prop #4: Will Big Ben or Case Keenum Throw More Picks in Week 2?
|Who Throws More Interceptions in Week 2?||Bovada Odds|
|Ben Roethlisberger vs Chiefs||-150|
|Case Keenum @ Raiders||+110|
Neither quarterback had a great Week 1.
Big Ben chucked three interceptions while Keenum pulled out a win against the Seahawks despite his three picks.
Overall, Ben has not been himself lately. Including playoffs he’s thrown an interception in three of his last four games. Despite 14 picks in 2017, he only had two multi-interception games.
First time in Ben Roethlisberger's career he threw 3 interceptions in 1st half.
— Gerry Dulac (@gerrydulac) September 10, 2018
He’s also dominated the Chiefs, throwing for 14 TDs and just four INTs in his career against them.
Keenum meanwhile, has started to struggle. He threw three picks across two playoff games last year, and the three against Seattle. He had eight touchdowns to two interceptions at home last season.
There’s an optimism that while Case Keenum’s two interceptions were bad decisions he still took necessary chances. Would be great to simmer the interceptions down, but the confidence to sling it over the yard is a plus for Keenum. Leaps and bounds versus last seasons.
— Cameron Parker (@CameronParkerPO) September 9, 2018
Roethlisberger is typically better at home, and even though KC had an INT in Week 1, their secondary isn’t what it has been.
Keenum meanwhile, still has to prove he’s worth his new contract.
Pick: Keenum’s struggles will continue, as he out INTs Big Ben.
Prop #5: Will Tyreek Hill Run All Over the 49ers?
|Will Tyreek Hill Have a TD of 50 or More Yards?||Bovada Odds|
Tyreek Hill has been an absolute monster for long touchdowns.
Last season, Hill logged five receiving touchdowns of 50 yards or more. He also nabbed an 82-yard punt return against the Texans.
Then he added another 58-yarder last week against the Chargers.
This week the Chiefs have the 49ers. The longest pass play that San Fran gave up to the Vikings? 34 yards.
Last year though, there were nine games where the 49ers gave up at least one play of 40 or more yards. That includes one punt return TD by Tarik Cohen. The others were passes.
With Richard Sherman still getting up to speed, San Fran’s defense is ripe for the picking.
Pick: Hill joins the 50+ club in back-to-back weeks.