7 NFL Team Trends to Know Before Betting Week 18: Can Darnold Be Trusted?

Week 18 represents a very unique test for NFL bettors. While certain Week 18 matchups have playoff berths, division titles, and even homefield advantage on the line, others mean nothing other than draft positioning. Trying to determine confidence in a team’s backups or their motivation to win the game is extremely difficult.

For this reason, I recommend focusing on the games that mean something for at least one of the teams. This includes, among others, the NFC West clash between the Seahawks and 49ers, which will determine the winner of the NFC West and the #1 seed in the NFC, the Buccaneers vs Panthers game that will decide the winner of the NFC South, and the Steelers vs Ravens matchup to close out the week that will send one team to the playoffs and end the other’s season.

To navigate betting these high-pressure matchups effectively, I have identified data-driven NFL team trends that cut through the emotions and recency biases, pointing bettors toward genuine betting value. These aren’t casual observations – they’re statistically significant patterns that reveal which teams are primed to exceed expectations. See these NFL team trends below along with the best lines for betting them.

1) Tampa Bay’s Failures as a Favorite Create Underdog Opportunity

The Buccaneers have lost their last four games as favorites

This alarming trend reveals market overvaluation of Tampa Bay’s capabilities. Sportsbooks, and the public, have continued to see the Bucs as the team who won the NFC South each of the last three seasons with Baker Mayfield at the helm, and started the season 6-2. But they simply have not been that team over the second half.

Losing four straight games as a favorite is concerning enough, but it’s even worse when you consider Tampa Bay’s opponents in those games. Here’s a look at each game:

• Week 14: Lost 24-20 at home to the Saints as 7.5-point favorites
• Week 15: Lost 29-28 at home to the Falcons as 4.5-point favorites
• Week 16: Lost 23-20 to the Panthers as 2.5-point favorites
• Week 17: Lost 20-17 to the Dolphins as 5.5-point favorites in Quinn Ewers second career start

Carolina has already beaten the Bucs once this season, and they have also shocked some good teams when expectations were low, including the Packers and Rams.

Current Moneyline (at time of writing): Tampa Bay Buccaneers -153 / Carolina Panthers +128

Tampa Bay has given us no reason to trust them to win any game right now, and the plus odds on Carolina presents significant value.

2) Seahawks Dominant on the Road, But Darnold Struggles in January

Sam Darnold is just 1-7 straight up in January games

While there are some strong trends pointing in favor of Seattle, such as the Seahawks being 7-1 against the spread on the road this season, Sam Darnold’s poor history in the month of January is tough to overlook.

Darnold is having another good season to this point, as was the case last year, but this is where he started his collapse with the Vikings last season. Ironically, Darnold is presented with basically the same Week 18 situation as last year as well: take on a tough division rival with the division and #1 seed on the line. As you may remember, Darnold played awful against the Lions in Week 18 last year, and then continued the struggles into Wild Card Weekend against the Rams.

But Darnold’s January struggles go further back than last season. Here are Sam Darnold’s game logs in January.

*Denotes a postseason game.

Darnold has only won one game in January, losing the other seven he has played. It’s also hard to give Darnold much credit for that one win, as he only completed five passes for 43 yards and two interceptions. Similar to last season, Darnold’s Week 18 opponent is too strong for his team to overcome a poor performance from their QB.

Current Moneyline: San Francisco 49ers +110

Getting plus money to bet on another Darnold collapse feels like a gift.

3) Jacksonville’s Post-Victory Explosions Signal Offensive Fireworks

The over has hit in 14 of the Jaguars’ last 17 games after a win

This powerful trend reveals Jacksonville’s tendency to build on success with offensive explosions. When the Jaguars enter a game with momentum, they don’t simply protect leads – they pour on points. Here’s what that has looked like this season:

Jacksonville averages 28.9 points per game following a win. On top of that, the Titans have been seemingly improving on offense, as they have scored at least 24 points in each of their last four games after not accomplishing the feat in any of their first ten games.

Sportsbook with Best Total for Betting Over: 47.5 at FanDuel

Against a Titans defense that is giving up the fifth-most points in the league, and Jacksonville needing the win to lock up the AFC South, we could see the Jags get close to this total on their own.

4) Indianapolis Struggles Continue Against Elite Competition

The Colts are 1-4 (20%) against the spread over their last five games

Indianapolis enters Week 18 in a concerning tailspin from a betting perspective. Their failure to cover spreads in four of five recent contests suggests consistent market overvaluation and/or underperformance. This trend becomes particularly troubling when facing a Texans squad boasting one of the best defenses in the league and riding the momentum of an eight-game winning streak.

The Colts will also be starting rookie Riley Leonard after Philip Rivers was unable to save their season after Daniel Jones went down to injury.

Current Spread: Houston Texans -10

With the Texans still having a chance to win the AFC South and avoid playing on the road in Wild Card Weekend, there is no shortage of motivation for them to come out strong.

5) New Orleans Road Underdog Woes Persist in Divisional Clash

The Saints are 2-10 (16.7%) on the road as underdogs over their last 12 games

The Saints have been bad this season, whether playing at home or on the road. However, the road has been much more difficult for New Orleans this season. Here are their home vs away splits:

Their struggles extend beyond just this season, though, as they have won just twice in their last 12 opportunities as a road underdog. The outlook is much worse when you isolate the games where they are a road underdog this season:

While the Saints have shown recent life, their historical struggles as road underdogs in hostile divisional environments create major concerns.

Current Moneyline: Atlanta Falcons -183 / New Orleans Saints +153

The moneyline pricing reflects market confidence in Atlanta, supported by New Orleans’ documented struggles in similar road underdog situations.

6) Broncos Win at Home, But Rarely Cover the Spread

The Broncos are 0-3 when favorites of 8+ points at home this season

While Denver is 7-1 straight up at Empower Field at Mile High, they have not covered the spread in many of those games. The Broncos are just 2-4 ATS as favorites at home, and an even worse 0-3 ATS when favored by 8+ points.

As you can see, Denver has largely underwhelmed when listed as heavy home favorites this season. Their offense has been a rollercoaster and that may not be any different this week.

Current Spread: Denver Broncos -12.5

The substantial spread reflects the Chargers being one of the many teams resting starters in Week 18. Trey Lance will start for Justin Herbert and many of LA’s other top players will not suit up. However, Denver’s knack for underperforming as heavy favorites makes all these points with the Chargers pretty intriguing, especially when you factor in LA being 2-0 as road dogs this season.

7) Steelers vs Ravens Typically Goes Under

Less than 40 points have been scored in 8 of the last 10 Steelers-Ravens matchups

This trend only includes regular season matchups, as their playoff matchup last season saw 42 total points. Here’s a look at the scores in the last ten matchups between these two teams:

The rivalry’s history of hard-hitting, low-scoring affairs supports continuation of this trend, especially with neither team’s offense being very potent this season.

On top of the low-scoring head-to-head matchups, the over has hit in just 2 of the Steelers’ last 11 games. Pittdburgh’s mediocre offense paired with their defense’s potential has resulte din low scores recently.

Sportsbook with Best Total for Betting Under: 41.5 at theScore Bet

Add in the fact that DK Metcalf will not suit up and Lamar Jackson returning from injury, who was not playing very well prior to the most recent injury, and this game is setting up to be a defensive battle.