- Aaron Rodgers finished with 364 yards passing, four touchdowns and no interceptions in Week 1
- Rodgers was 10th in line in terms of the NFL MVP odds before Week 1 but now he’s in the Top 5
- Is there still value with Rodgers at this point?
We’re not even fully through the first week of the NFL season but we’re already seeing some notable changes with the NFL MVP odds prop. After a scintillating start, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is now in the Top 5. Is he worth betting at this price? Let’s take a closer look.
NFL MVP Odds
|Player||Pos||Team||Odds to win 2020 NFL MVP at DraftKings|
Odds taken September 14
Rodgers Roasts Vikings In Week 1
Coming into the season, there was some general talk that Aaron Rodgers might be in the twilight of his career. Analytics gurus have pointed to a number of stats and performances indicating that Rodgers wasn’t as sharp as he used to be. Meanwhile, the Packers drafted quarterback Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
Rodgers kept the doubters at bay for at least one week as he absolutely shredded the Vikings in Week 1. Rodgers finished 32-of-44 for 364 yards, four touchdowns and no picks while posting a QBR of 93.0. While it was impressive, it has to be taken with a grain of salt. The Vikings have very average cornerbacks and star pass rusher Danielle Hunter was out.
Rodgers. Russ. Lamar. The best QBs from Week 1 🚀 pic.twitter.com/3WKIYwsG1a
— PFF (@PFF) September 14, 2020
As a result of the strong start, Rodgers has shot up the board in terms of the MVP odds. He was 10th in line before last week but now he’s moved into the Top 5 at +1400.
Rodgers Had Good Games In 2019
Before everyone jumps on the bandwagon, it’s important to remember that Rodgers had games like this in 2019. Rodgers torched the Las Vegas Raiders for 429 yards, five touchdowns and no picks and he also had 305 passing yards with three touchdowns and no picks against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The issue is that when you look at the rest of the season, it was quite pedestrian. Rodgers had 243 passing yards or less in seven of his final eight games. While he didn’t throw many interceptions last season (four in total), he had just 10 touchdown passes in his final eight games.
Raiders rookie Max Crosby sacked Aaron Rodgers and did his signature belt celebration.
Rodgers responded by scoring 5 touchdowns after that decision 😏
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 20, 2019
In other words, before you start hammering Rodgers here for this prop, keep in mind that he’s had performances like this before. We need to see a steady body of work for at least three or four games before getting on board.
Does Rodgers Have Better Weapons?
One other key factor for Rodgers and this MVP prop is whether or not he actually has better receivers to work with. Remember, the team neglected this position in the offseason in the hopes that some of their young players would step up.
— Lily Zhao (@LilySZhao) September 13, 2020
That happened in Week 1 as Marquez Valdes-Scantling had four catches for 96 yards and a touchdown and Allen Lazard had four catches for 63 yards and a touchdown. The question is whether these players continue to deliver alongside Davante Adams, who had 14 catches for 156 yards and two touchdowns.
What’s the Best Bet?
We’re going to see some bettors hopping on Rodgers this week and the odds will probably shorten some more, but this feels a bit premature. As mentioned, Rodgers had electric weeks last season but his season as a whole was nowhere near MVP-caliber. We saw a good showing in Week 1 – from him and his young wideouts – but we don’t know if they can keep this up.
Aaron Rodgers is on a mission. 45-yard TD to Marquez Valdes-Scantling with time running out in the first-half. That's two TD passes in a span of 24 seconds for Rodgers. pic.twitter.com/vrE7ajMXWq
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) September 13, 2020
At this point, it’s best to wait on Rodgers. Expect him to come back down to Earth in the coming weeks, the Packers to rely more on their ground game and the opponents to offer a little more resistance. He’s a ‘pass’ at this point.
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