All the Data Needed to Make the Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Conference Championships

The NFL Conference Championships are upon us, and with them comes four teams for us to dissect and try to take advantage of weaknesses/strengths by betting player props. However, there aren’t a ton of glaring weaknesses to expose with any of the four teams, as three of them possess some of the best defenses in the league.

We also have some massive changes at key positions, or in regard to workloads for certain players, after seeing Bo Nix and Zach Charbonnet injured in their respective games last weekend.

I cover all the data needed – including season averages and how the defense they face has performed versus their position this year – in order to make informed bets when it comes to NFL player props for the Conference Championships below.

NFL Conference Championship Passing Props Analysis

Three of the four teams playing in the Conference Championships have not given up many passing yards per game, while the fourth is pretty average. So, navigating passing props for this weekend will require some extra research.

Passing Props & Matchups

*Jarrett Stidham’s passing yards per game is from the two games he started as a Bronco in 2023. All other stats are a combination of regular season and playoffs.

Stafford’s passing yards over/under is by far the highest of the week at 254.5, and for good reason. He has averaged 277.3 passing yards per game this season and threw for 457 yards the last time he played the Seahawks (Week 16). Jarrett Stidham is on the other end with the lowest over/under for passing yards at just 199.5. Stidham is making his first start since the 2023 season in place of the injured Bo Nix.

Keep up with the latest lines and get the best odds for both the over and under with all four QBs above on our NFL passing yards props page.

Stidham faces the toughest test this weekend, taking on a Patriots defense that has allowed just 204.4 gross passing yards per game, the seventh-fewest in the NFL. Darnold has the easiest matchup (on paper), getting a Rams defense that ranks 22nd against the pass, surrendering 237.3 gross passing yards per game.

Sam Darnold is the only QB whose over/under for passing yards this week is higher than his season average. Darnold has averaged 231.8 passing yards this season but his over/under is 234.5.

Playoff Passing Stats

Here’s how the quarterbacks above, minus Jarrett Stidham since he hasn’t played this season, have fared so far in the NFL playoffs:

• Matthew Stafford: 281 Pass YPG | 42 Pass Att/Gm | 5.89 Net Yards Per Attempt | 460 Air Yards/Gm
• Drake Maye: 223.5 Pass YPG | 28 Pass Att/Gm | 5.73 Net Yards Per Attempt | Air Yards/Gm
• Sam Darnold: 124 Pass YPG | 17 Pass Att/Gm | 5.58 Net Yards Per Attempt | 154 Air Yards/Gm

Stafford has carried on his regular season success into the two playoff games he has played so far, and has been by far the most effective QB in the playoffs. Maye has been a little quieter than he was in the regular season, but he has played two very good defenses in the Chargers and Texans, with the latter being in a blizzard.

The Seahawks didn’t really need Darnold in their blowout win over the 49ers last week, as he only threw for 124 yards and was lifted from the game pretty early.

For what it’s worth, Bo Nix threw for 279 yards against a Bills defense that had allowed the fewest gross passing yards per game this season.

Conference Championship Passing Trends

• Drake Maye (NE): Has exceeded 1.5 passing touchdowns in 12 of his last 18 games (1.9 passing touchdowns/game average)
• Matthew Stafford (LA): The veteran has been in championship form, exceeding 254.5 passing yards in 7 straight games (313.7 passing yards/game average)
• Sam Darnold (SEA): Has failed to exceed 234.5 passing yards in 3 of his last 4 games (184.8 passing yards/game average). Against elite defenses at home, he has thrown an interception in 7 straight games against top 10 scoring defenses (1.1 interceptions/game average) and failed to exceed 1.5 passing touchdowns in 5 of his last 6 games at home (0.8 passing touchdowns/game average).

Bet any of these trends after taking advantage of our BetMGM signup offer.

NFL Rushing Props Data for Conference Championships

While the four defenses in the Conference Championships were good against the pass, they’re even better against the run. Not only is the top team against the run (yards per carry) playing, but three of them rank in the top five for rushing yards allowed per game.

Rushing Props & Matchups

All the lines above are accurate as of Friday morning. Be sure to check our NFL rushing yards props tool, where you can get the latest lines and find the best over and under odds for all players.

We have yet to see over/unders on rushing yards for any Broncos running backs, as JK Dobbins’ status is up in the air after Denver activated his practice window. Should Dobbins suit up, he will certainly be used in some capacity, limiting RJ Harvey’s touches.

The player with the highest over/under for rushing yards in the Conference Championships is Kenneth Walker III. Not only is Walker going to see an increase in workload after Zach Charbonnet suffered a season-ending knee injury last week, but he also has the easiest matchup of the weekend. The Rams team he will face is the only defense standing that allows 100+ rushing yards per game (111.9) and rank 16th in yards allowed per rushing attempt (4.28).

Rams running backs are expected to be facing the toughest matchup this weekend, as the Seahawks rank 3rd in rushing yards allowed per game (92.8), which is best among the remaining teams, and allowed the fewest yards per carry this season (3.76).

It’s also worth noting that the Broncos gave up 183 rushing yards to the Bills in their lone playoff game so far – a massive difference from their regular season average. So, Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson might be players to look at.

Playoff Rushing Stats

Here’s a quick look at how these running backs have performed in their 1-2 playoff games so far:

• Kyren Williams: 34 att, 144 yds, 72 YPG, 4.24 YPC, 2 TD ⭐
• Blake Corum: 17 att, 64 yds, 32.0 YPG, 3.76 YPC, 0 TD

• Kenneth Walker III: 19 att, 116 yds, 116 YPG, 6.11 YPC, 3 TD 🔥
• Zach Charbonnet: 5 att, 20 yds, 20.0 YPG, 4.00 YPC, 0 TD

• RJ Harvey: 6 att, 20 yds, 20 YPG, 3.33 YPC, 0 TD

• TreVeyon Henderson: 21 att, 52 yds, 26 YPG, 2.48 YPC, 0 TD
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 26 att, 123 yds, 61.5 YPG, 4.73 YPC, 0 TD

While Kyren Williams has the most rushing yards so far, he has also played two games. Kenneth Walker III had a monster game last week, in his lone game, going for 116 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

Conference Championship Rushing Trends

• Rhamondre Stevenson (NE): Has shown vulnerability in favorable game scripts, failing to exceed 47.5 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 games as a favorite (35.8 rushing yards/game average).
• RJ Harvey (DEN): Has struggled with consistency in recent outings, failing to exceed 43.5 rushing yards in 3 of his last 4 games (35.2 rushing yards/game average).
• Kyren Williams (LA): Has exceeded 13.5 rushing attempts in 11 straight games as an underdog (21.7 rushing attempts/game average). Against elite defenses, he has exceeded 53.5 rushing yards in 12 straight games against top 10 scoring defenses (80.2 rushing yards/game average).
• Blake Corum (LA): Has exceeded 7.5 rushing attempts in 4 straight games against top 10 scoring defenses (11.8 rushing attempts/game average). He has also exceeded 28.5 rushing yards in 6 of his last 8 games (58.6 rushing yards/game average).

Use our signup offer at theScore Bet to tail any of these trends!

NFL Receiving Props Data & Analysis for Conference Championships

We already touched on how good three of the four defenses standing are against the pass. Here’s a look at the expectations from receivers this weekend, along with their season stats.

Receiving Props & Matchups

The over/unders in the table above are accurate as of Friday morning. Before you place your bets, check out our NFL receiving yards props tool to find the current lines and best over/under odds for all players.

The player with the highest over/under for receiving yards in the Conference Championships is Puka Nacua at 90.5, which is about 14 yards shy of his season average so far. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a very close second at 89.5.

Broncos receivers have the toughest matchup on paper, as the Patriots are allowing the seventh-fewest gross passing yards this season. Seahawks receivers have the easiest matchup, taking on a Rams defense that is allowing the 11th-most gross passing yards per game. Sportsbooks must be expecting Seattle to lean on the running game instead of attacking through the air, as JSN’s prop line is more than 11 yards shy of his season average.

There are only two receivers in the table above whose receiving over/under for Sunday is higher than their season average: Pat Bryant and AJ Barner.

Playoff Receiving Stats

Here are the top pass-catchers in terms of receiving yards so far in the playoffs:

1. Puka Nacua (LAR) – 167 yards, 15 rec, 1 TD (2 games)
2. Kayshon Boutte (NE) – 141 yards, 7 rec, 1 TD (2 games)
   • Impressive 77.8% catch rate on 9 targets
   • 70.5 yds/game average
3. Davante Adams (LAR) – 96 yards, 7 rec (2 games)
   • 19 targets but struggling with 36.8% catch rate
   • 48 yds/game
4. Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) – 93 yards, 8 rec, 1 TD (1 game)
   • Leads current receivers with 93 yds/game
5. Colby Parkinson (LAR) – 90 yards, 5 rec, 1 TD (2 games)
   • Top TE with 45 yds/game
6. Tyler Higbee (LAR) – 72 yards, 3 rec (2 games)
7. Hunter Henry (NE) – 69 yards, 4 rec, 1 TD (2 games)
   • 57.1% catch rate, 34.5 yds/game
8. Cooper Kupp (SEA) – 60 yards, 5 rec (1 game)
   • Perfect 100% catch rate (5/5)
9. Stefon Diggs (NE) – 56 yards, 6 rec, 1 TD (2 games)
   • 54.5% catch rate on 11 targets
10. Courtland Sutton (DEN) – 53 yards, 4 rec (1 game)
    • 44.4% catch rate on 9 targets

Conference Championship Receiving Trends

• Puka Nacua (LA): Has shown recent inconsistency, failing to exceed 102.5 rushing + receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games (83.5 rushing + receiving yards/game average).
• Davante Adams (LA): Has thrived as an underdog throughout the playoffs, exceeding 4.5 receptions in 7 of his last 8 games as an underdog (7.2 receptions/game average).
• Tyler Higbee (LA): Has been exceptional against elite defenses, exceeding 15.5 receiving yards in 10 straight games against top 10 scoring defenses (36.8 receiving yards/game average) and maintaining road success with 5 straight games exceeding 15.5 receiving yards (32.8 receiving yards/game average).
• Stefon Diggs (NE): Has struggled against quality opposition, failing to exceed 46.5 receiving yards in 4 straight games against opponents with winning records (32.0 receiving yards/game average). He has also shown inconsistency after victories, failing to exceed 4.5 receptions in 6 of his last 7 games after a win (3.3 receptions/game average).
• Hunter Henry (NE): Has faced challenges against elite defenses, failing to exceed 41.5 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games against top 10 scoring defenses (24.4 receiving yards/game average). Against winning teams, he has failed to exceed 3.5 receptions in 6 straight games (1.3 receptions/game average).
• Courtland Sutton (DEN): Has been consistently productive, exceeding 51.5 receiving yards in 6 of his last 8 games (60.0 receiving yards/game average)

Tail any of these trends after claiming your bet365 signup bonus!