Amari Cooper Projected Stats as a Cowboy

• The Cowboys have sent a 2019 first-round pick to the Raiders for WR Amari Cooper
• Will Cooper, despite declining production, spark the Boys’ passing game?
• Could Dez Bryant be signed to fill the receiving hole with the Raiders?

On Monday, the Oakland Raiders traded WR Amari Cooper to the Dallas Cowboys in exchange for their 2019 first-round pick.

The fourth-overall pick in 2015, Cooper hit career-lows in both receptions (48) and yards (680) in 2017. Despite these lower stats, he was actually more successful in finding the end zone with a career-high seven TDs, and Jason Garrett is confident a new environment will reinvigorate the Alabama product.

Jason Garrett on @1053thefan on Amari Cooper's drop off in production: “Your numbers can be a function of what the environment is and how the team is playing in general. There are certainly areas where he can improve. … He’s a young guy. We feel like he has a bright future.”

— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) October 23, 2018

Cooper’s drop in production, recent concussion issues, as well as concerns over his passion for the game, had originally made him an underdog to be traded out of Oakland. Now a Cowboy, let’s take a look at some projected year-end stats for Dallas’ newest receiver.

Amari Cooper Projected Over/Under Stats

Cooper has played five full games this season and part of a sixth. (He left the team’s last game against Seattle early to be evaluated for a concussion, which is not likely to keep him out further.) Based on his current pace for receptions and yardage, his year-end stats would be none too impressive.

One touchdown over five games this season puts him on pace for 3.2 TDs. But given that his career-low is four receiving touchdowns and there won’t be a whole lot of competition for red-zone targets in Dallas, I’ll set the total at 4.5.

From @NFLTotalAccess: How did the #Cowboys and #Raiders come together to execute the blockbuster Amari Cooper trade? pic.twitter.com/YV5Pc0LNsM

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 22, 2018

This season, Cooper’s usage has also taken a drop-off, even in a struggling Raider offense. In 2017, he was targeted second-most on the team at 96 targets over 14 games, good for an average of 6.86 per game. This year, he was only tied for third on the team in both targets and yardage. His 31 targets over six (call it five) games was an average of 6.2 per game, while his 280 receiving yards amounted to 56 YPG.

In Dallas, he will have every opportunity to be “The Man”. No Cowboys receiver ranks higher than 27th in the league in receptions. That man is slot receiver Cole Beasley with 33. Beasley had 36 all of last season so suffice to say Beasley isn’t used to being a WR1.

Cooper has been boom or bust so far in 2018 with two games of over 100 receiving yards and three with 17 or fewer (not counting the game versus Seattle). His inconsistency is hugely concerning, but he’s been brought in to Dallas to be a deep threat and, more generally, Dak Prescott’s top option on the outside. If he can average around 5 receptions and 65 yards a game for the remainder of the year, he will come close to 70 catches and 860 yards for the season.

Can Amari Cooper add a viable deep threat to the Dallas Cowboys offensive attack?

That and more of our instant takeaways from the Cooper to Dallas trade ⬇️ ⬇️ https://t.co/o5Dhb0RFrT pic.twitter.com/m89Yj7TVd8

— PFF (@PFF) October 23, 2018

Amari Cooper and Dez Bryant Odds

With Oakland exercising Cooper’s fifth-year option on his rookie deal, he’ll be under contract with Dallas through next season. Dallas has invested a lot in Cooper in giving up a first rounder. If he has any success at all, they’d likely try to re-sign him.

Yet, a lot can happen over the next season-and-a-half. Anytime you hear that a player may lack passion for the sport, it gives me concern about his productivity and the likelihood of Dallas committing to him long-term.

Highest drop % among 50 most-targeted WRs over the past 4 seasons:

Amari Cooper – 8.4%
Ted Ginn – 7.8%
Davante Adams – 7.5%
Dez Bryant – 7.4%
Michael Crabtree – 7.4% pic.twitter.com/wnd8yYfzUV

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) October 23, 2018

With Cooper moving out of Oakland, could that open the door for free agent Dez Bryant to don the silver and black?

On one hand, Gruden has taken a liking to signing veterans whose best days may already be behind them. On the other, he also seems to have conceded that 2018 will be a lost season and looks to be building for the future. Bryant isn’t a player to build your future around, so I’ll set the odds high on that signing.