NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets for Week 1: Predictions for TD Props

• Week 1 NFL TD props are widely available across most sports betting apps
• The first week of the season always presents some uncertainties around each player’s role and which offenses will score points; I have spent the offseason studying each team’s changes, as well as last year’s data and what the preseason showed us
• I am betting ten players to score a touchdown in Week 1; check out my TD picks below!

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I’m not sure about you, but I have been waiting nearly seven months for this day/week: 2025 NFL kickoff. Week 1 is finally upon us, and I am so happy to be betting football again, specifically anytime touchdowns.

I have spent the last two weeks, since anytime TD odds opened, going through every single player’s odds and analyzing the pertinent player and team data, with the goal of putting together the best anytime TD picks for Week 1. I have settled on the ten players below, which present a mix of higher-probability TD scorers as well as some longshots who could pay out big.

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 1

I am betting ten players to score a touchdown in Week 1 of the 2025-26 NFL season. All of the above bets are half-unit risks, outside of Saquon Barkley, De’Von Achane, and Derrick Henry. Each of those three are full-unit bets. In total, I am risking 6.5 units across these ten bets.

To be clear, these are all anytime TD bets. You are more than welcome to make any of them first TD scorer bets, but I typically avoid that market. There is too much volatility in that market and I very rarely find much betting value.

All of the TD odds above were available as of Wednesday night. I have noted the shortest odds I would be comfortable taking for each of the ten picks in my analysis and justification for each anytime TD pick below!

If you wanted to see more than just TD props, check out our NFL props tool, where you can see a wide variety of player prop markets and every side has the best odds presented.

Saquon Barkley

I am always nervous trusting players from an offense who just lost their Offensive Coordinator / play-caller, especially one of Kellen Moore’s caliber. However, I feel this is too good of a price to pass up.

Many sportsbooks have Barkley’s anytime TD odds shorter than -200, and even the majority of sportsbooks who are longer than -200 are still 30 cents shorter than the -165 odds BetMGM is offering. (If this price is no longer available at BetMGM by the time you read this, check in with bet365, who were offering -175 at the time of writing this. I would not bet this any shorter than -180, though.)

There were only two players in the NFL who saw more red zone looks than Saquon Barkley last season, and neither were that much higher than the Eagles’ RB. He was also tied for 7th in goal line looks last year, but his QB, who ranks 5th with one more than him, vultures a lot of those opportunities. I don’t think we see much change under new OC Kevin Patullo in terms of looks/touches in red zone and goal line situations this season.

Barkley’s 2025 campaign gets started against a Cowboys defense that was absolutely horrific against the run. Dallas allowed the third-most yards per rushing attempt and the most rushing touchdowns in the league last season. I don’t think 2025 is going to look much different for this defense, which will be coached by Matt Eberflus, especially after trading away Micah Parsons.

I think Patullo’s first game will be an easier one, as he’ll just be able to lean on Barkley and the ground game. I think this is the last time we see Saquon with odds longer than -190 to score a TD this season.

• Pick: Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (-165 at BetMGM)

Xavier Worthy

Like most rookie receivers in an Andy Reid offense, it took Xavier Worthy some time to gain the trust of his coach and start seeing some more opportunities. But once that trust was earned, Reid really unleashed the speedy wide receiver.

In the final three games of the regular season where the Chiefs played their starters (no Week 18) and their three playoff games, Worthy saw 2.57 red zone looks per game, good for a 40% share of the team’s red zone targets. The rookie turned those opportunities into six total touchdowns, scoring a TD in five of those six.

With Rashee Rice accepting the six-game suspension to start the season, and Travis Kelce turning 36 years old next month, I expect Worthy to remain a significant part of the Chiefs offense to open the season, especially in the red zone against tough defenses. I would bet this as short as +130.

• Pick: Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+140 at DraftKings)

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 3, 2025 at 2:42pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers

140 on DraftKings

SCHEDULED • 09/06/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1756910559792-5a21-110

TreVeyon Henderson

Rhamondre Stevenson literally fumbled his opportunity as the Patriots’ lead back last season when facing very little competition for touches. The fumble-itis is something new head coach Mike Vrabel simple will not put up with. Even when Stevenson isn’t fumbling the ball, he lacks burst and explosivity. This is why the Patriots drafted TreVeyon Henderson in the 2nd round of the 2025 NFL Draft.

We got to see some of that explosivity from Henderson in the preseason, and I think the Patriots are going to have a really tough time keeping the rookie on the sideline.

In Week 1, New England plays a Raiders defense that allowed the 8th-most points in the league last year. While I do believe new head coach Pete Carroll will raise Las Vegas’ floor, bringing them back closer to mediocrity than they’ve been in recent seasons, I don’t have a ton of faith in their defense being any better.

If you can’t get +130 odds or longer at the time of reading, I would avoid this one.

• Pick: TreVeyon Henderson Anytime TD (+135 at BetMGM)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

The Commanders ranked 3rd in rushing yards and 4th in rushing yards per attempt, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, last season. This was while giving Brian Robinson Jr, who averaged a team-low (among players who carried the ball more than twice) 4.3 YPC, 35.6% of their rushing attempts.

On top of that, running backs handled 93 of Washington’s 191 total red zone looks, which is a 48.7% share, and they saw 44% of the team’s goal line looks. Brian Robinson Jr was again the team-leader in both of those categories, and he’s now a San Francisco 49er.

Washington very well may choose to spread those looks out across their entire backfield, but I don’t believe that will be the case. I think Austin Ekeler has a pretty defined role and won’t take on much more than he handled last season. If I’m correct, that leaves Chris Rodriguez, who was a member of the team last year and struggled to find the field, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt, or “Bill,” as he has become known, to soak up those looks.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 3, 2025 at 2:45pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • New York Giants @ Washington Commanders

330 on DraftKings

SCHEDULED • 09/07/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1756910756239-5a21-316

I think JCM’s very impressive camp and preseason were the reason Washington felt comfortable moving on from B-Rob. As the most explosive option in the backfield, I don’t think they’ll hold back from using him right out of the gate. Even if Rodriguez ends up handling many of the goal line looks, JCM has all the burst needed to break one loose, as we’ve seen in the preseason.

I would bet this as short as +300.

• Pick: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Anytime TD (+330 at DraftKings)

Travis Etienne

Last year, Liam Cohen’s offense in Tampa Bay ranked 2nd in TD passes and his QB (Baker Mayfield) ranked 2nd in passing attempts to running backs per game, when only considering players who started more than six games. Cohen’s offense saw running backs targeted in the pass-game 7.1 times per game.

Similar to the above pick, I’m not sure anyone outside of the Jaguars organization knows exactly how the running back snaps will be split up, but I do feel confident in saying Etienne is going to be the preferred option when throwing the ball to RBs – Tank Bigsby hasn’t offered much as a pass-catcher in his career, and I’m not sure Bhayshul Tuten has a significant role right out of the gate as a rookie. See how long it took Bucky Irving to earn his coach’s trust last season.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 3, 2025 at 3:09pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

160 on DraftKings

SCHEDULED • 09/07/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1756912198234-5a21-912

I think Etienne is in a really nice bounce-back spot this season, and think the Jags offense will find success against a Carolina defense that ranked last in both yards and points allowed last year. I would bet the Jags’ RB to score a TD at +150 odds or longer.

• Pick: Travis Etienne Anytime TD (+165 at DraftKings)

De’Von Achane

When Tua Tagovailoa played last season, De’Von Achane scored a touchdown in 9 of 11 games. The RB was tied for 7th in the NFL in goal line looks last season, and 12th in red zone looks – those numbers were significantly hampered in the first four games Tagovailoa missed, as Miami’s backup QBs only managed to put an average of 10 points on the board per game.

While I do appreciate Ollie Gordon may see some goal-line/short-yardage opportunities this season, especially early on, I think there will be enough opportunities to go around against a Colts defense that gave up the 9th-most points and 4th-most yards last season.

For those nervous about Achane’s calf injury, I get it. But the fact that he returned to practice Monday, as was the plan for a couple weeks, is a great sign towards his availability in Week 1. I would bet this as short as -150.

• Pick: De’Von Achane Anytime TD (-138 at bet365)

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 3, 2025 at 5:37pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts

-138 on Bet365

SCHEDULED • 09/07/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1756921062835-5a21-829

RJ Harvey

If you watched RJ Harvey in the preseason, I do not need to explain how much of a difference there is between him and JK Dobbins. If you didn’t catch Harvey in the preseason, you missed the burst and extra gear he showcased, which Dobbins does not have after all the lower body injuries he has suffered in his career – but I also don’t think Dobbins ever had this type of burst.

Sean Payton drafted Harvey to be his Alvin Kamara in Denver – a back with incredible elusiveness, burst, can run between the tackles, and is more than capable as a receiver. I know Dobbins is listed as the RB1 on their depth chart, but I don’t believe Payton has a ton of interest in giving Dobbins the ball. He’s there because he’s reliable, specifically in pass protection.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 3, 2025 at 6:59pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos

165 on DraftKings

SCHEDULED • 09/07/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1756925948402-5a21-609

I think Harvey did enough in the preseason to earn the trust of his coach, and his speed will be utilized in the red zone against a Titans defense that allowed TDs on 63.2% of their opponent’s red zone drives last season. I would bet this as long as you can get +145 odds or better.

• Pick: RJ Harvey Anytime TD (+165 at DraftKings)

Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs led the NFL in touchdowns last season with 20. He scored at least one TD in 13 of 17 games, which is a 76.5% hit rate. He also managed to score in both games against the Packers last year.

Gibbs is the much more explosive of the two Lions’ backs, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been trusted with short-yardage duties as well. Last season he led the team in red zone and goal line looks, though David Montgomery averaged slightly more looks per game in both but just missed three games.

We saw Gibbs’ touches increase from 234 in his rookie season to 302 in Year 2. He was even more efficient with the extra touches too, averaging 6.4 yards per touch versus 5.4 as a rookie. As his backfield mate David Montgomery has even said, Gibbs will only continue taking a bigger share of the touches as he ascends to one of the league’s best running backs.

While I am certainly a little concerned about the loss of Ben Johnson, Detroit’s offensive line should still be in very good shape and I cannot pass on these long odds with Gibbs. I would bet this as short as -120.

• Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD (-105 at BetMGM)

Derrick Henry

I think this will be the last time we see Derrick Henry given odds as long as -140 to score a touchdown in any game this season. The Ravens RB was often closing at -200 odds or shorter in any given game last season. So, I can’t pass on this opportunity.

Last season Henry handled 60 of Baltimore’s 146 red zone looks (41.1%) and 21 of their 31 goal line looks (67.7%). He’s the guy the Ravens (understandably) look to inside of their opponent’s 20. Henry turned all those opportunities into 18 total touchdowns, tied for second-most in the league.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 3, 2025 at 7:54pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills

-140 on FanDuel

SCHEDULED • 09/08/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1756929282687-5a21-315

The Ravens saw the Bills twice last season, and King Henry totaled 209 yards from scrimmage with two touchdowns in the first meeting, and just 84 rushing yards and one touchdown in the second, which came in the playoffs. Baltimore didn’t get their bruising RB involved enough in the second meeting, which was the result of them falling behind in the first half.

I don’t think the Ravens will make that same mistake again, and foresee Henry getting a lot of touches early – not to mention, continues to dominate the red zone and goal line work.

Henry is as short as -175 at other sportsbooks. I would bet this as short as -155.

• Pick: Derrick Henry Anytime TD (-140 at FanDuel)

Cole Kmet

Full transparency, I do not love any TD bet from this game. I suspect the Vikings defense, who allowed the fifth-fewest points last season, to continue to be strong, and I think Ben Johnson’s offensive scheme will help the Chicago defense out a bit too.

That’s not to say I don’t think JJ McCarthy and the Vikings offense won’t score, but I don’t love Justin Jefferson’s odds and both RBs – Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason – are given pretty short odds to score, thanks to not knowing what that split will look like.

So, I’m taking a bigger swing in this game, taking the +650 odds on Cole Kmet to score a TD. If you cannot find at least +550 odds at the time of reading, I would stay away.

Prior to the Bears offense struggling mightily last season, Kmet caught 13 touchdowns over the previous two seasons. The 6’6″, 260-pound tight end is a QB’s dream in the red zone.

I know the Bears just selected Colston Loveland with their first-round pick, but that doesn’t mean Kmet isn’t going to see the field. Johnson’s 2024 Lions offense utilized 12 personnel on 36.8% of their offensive snaps, good for second-most in the league. On top of that, they targeted tight ends on 24.7% of their red zone pass attempts.

While I like Rome Odunze, I don’t think he sees the same 34.8% of red zone targets that Amon-Ra St Brown did in Detroit last year. I also don’t believe Chicago has the power on their offensive line (yet) to lean on the ground game as much as Detroit did last season. So, I believe Chicago’s tight ends have a good chance to see even more than 24.7% of the red zone targets, and I like Caleb Williams to be forced to put the ball in the air in the red zone more than Jared Goff had to last season.

• Pick: Cole Kmet Anytime TD (+650 at DraftKings)

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 3, 2025 at 7:28pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

650 on DraftKings

SCHEDULED • 09/09/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1756927709258-5a21-846