NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets for Week 4: Predictions for TD Props

• Sportsbooks have made NFL touchdown props widely available for all Week 4 games
• With a few games played, we can now see usage, especially red zone and goal line usage, trends coming together, providing bettors with great data for betting TD props
• Check out the players I am betting to score a touchdown in Week 4 below

As we approach Week 4 of the 2025-26 NFL season, it is becoming more and more clear which offenses you can count on, which offenses you should avoid, and which defenses you should target when betting NFL touchdown props. However, the sportsbooks also know this, and we’re starting to see some shorter anytime TD odds for the more consistent touchdown scorers.

But if you have the time to dive deeper into the stats, there are still some players the sportsbooks have not caught up with yet in their TD betting markets, as well as some players who are either off to uncharacteristically rough starts or just starting to break out. I believe I have identified a bunch of these for Week 4, and have shared my most confident NFL touchdown picks below.

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 4

I currently have seven players I am betting to score a touchdown in Week 4 of the 2025-26 NFL season. All of the picks above are half-unit bets, except for Jordan Mason and Jalen Hurts, who are full-unit bets, James Cook is a 1.5-unit bet (again), while Tory Horton is just a 0.33-unit risk. As usual, these are all anytime TD scorer picks. I do not bet first TD scorers – the market is too unpredictable and I rarely find value in the odds.

I will be adding some more for the Sunday afternoon block, as well as the SNF game and MNF doubleheader. Be sure to check back for the extra picks ahead of those games!

If you want to bet more than NFL TD props, you can see all the passing, rushing, and receiving over/unders on our NFL props page.

I went an ugly 3-6 on touchdown picks last week, losing 0.62 units. It was a frustrating one, as I watched Kareem Hunt score Kansas City’s touchdown, not Isiah Pacheco, and Jaylen Warren dominate snaps and touches, but Kenneth Gainwell gets the carry from the one-yard-line for a touchdown.

I think I have made good reads again for Week 4, but just need a little better touchdown luck. You can read my data-based analysis and justification for each TD pick below.

Tory Horton

Of all the touchdown picks in this article, this is the one I am least confident in. I have still bet it, but want to be transparent that I don’t love it – just like it.

The reason for that is both these teams have been pretty good defensively. Seattle is tied with three other teams for allowing the fewest total touchdowns this season (just 4), while the Cardinals have only allowed five. Both defenses have stiffened up in the red zone, as they are both in the top four for opponent red zone touchdown percentage – Arizona allows a TD on 41.7% of their opponent’s red zone drives, while Seattle allows one on 40%.

I still like this pick, though, because neither team has faced very good offenses yet. Each of them have played the Saints and 49ers – the Seahawks did have to deal with Brock Purdy under center, but the Cardinals got Mac Jones – and Seattle’s third game came against the Steelers, while Arizona’s was the Panthers.

Looking at the nine touchdowns these two have surrendered, eight of them have come through the air. Again, part of that could be the offenses they have played, but I think the TD odds for Trey Benson, Kenneth Walker, and Zach Charbonnet (questionable) are all a little too short for me. So, I’m looking to some pass-catchers.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba dominates the targets in Seattle, but he has only seen two red zone looks this season and has one touchdown. His +165 odds to score a TD are also a little too short for me. Instead, I’m looking to Tory Horton, who is tied for the team-lead with three touchdowns this season. The rookie has a touchdown in two of three games, which is each of his last two.

Horton also played in a season-high 53.8% of Seattle’s offensive snaps last week, and I think he’ll continue seeing more opportunities as he continues to produce. I’m betting Horton to score a touchdown in his third straight game tonight!

• Tory Horton Anytime TD (+450 at ESPN Bet) – use our ESPN promo code to sign up and tail this bet!

Jordan Mason

Jordan Mason has dominated Minnesota’s red zone touches and even total touches. Mason has seen seven of their 19 red zone looks and handled 37.1% of their total touches. Though he only has a touchdown in one of three games this season, both of them came last week as their offense broke out against the Bengals.

I think Mason has a great opportunity to replicate that performance against another not-so-great defense in Week 4.

With Carson Wentz at QB last week, Jordan Mason saw four of the team’s 11 red zone looks and two of their three goal line looks. The RB handled 34% of Minnesota’s total touches, but Zavier Scott and Cam Akers also combined for 29.7% of their touches because the game was so out of reach early. A good chunk of those touches likely would have gone to Mason as well, had the game been competitive.

The Steelers have allowed 10 touchdowns this season and I don’t believe they have played a great offense yet. Seattle is probably the best of the bunch, who scored four touchdowns against them, but the Patriots and Jets also combined for six. Four of those TDs have come on the ground, and Pittsburgh is giving up 4.3 rushing yards per attempt.

I don’t think Kevin O’Connell will want to give TJ Watt many opportunities to pressure Wentz in the red zone, and will opt to lean on Mason in that area.

• Pick: Jordan Mason Anytime TD (-110 at bet365)

Omarion Hampton

Omarion Hampton has seen a team-high eight red zone looks and four (of six total) goal line looks through three weeks. As it appeared the rookie might start seeing fewer looks, with Najee Harris fully healthy, Harris suffered a season-ending injury last week, leaving Hampton with Hassan Haskins as his main competition for touches.

Against a Giants team that has allowed 5.2 rushing yards per attempt, a touchdown on 80% of their opponent’s red zone drives, and five rushing touchdowns this season, it feels like Hampton’s anytime TD odds should be closer to -150.

Hampton only scored his first touchdown of the season last week, but he has faced some pretty good run defenses so far this season. The Giants are not a good run defense, and I think Hampton helps run the score up for the Chargers by finding the endzone at least once.

• Pick: Omarion Hampton Anytime TD (-105 at Fanatics) – register with Fanatics Sportsbook to tail this pick now!

Keenan Allen

The safer anytime touchdown play in this game is Omarion Hampton, as mentioned above, but I can’t look away from Keenan Allen at +225 odds.

Allen is tied for second on the team with five red zone looks and he has seen a team-high 9.3 targets per game. That’s actually good for 8th-best in the NFL as well.

The veteran wide receiver has a touchdown in all three games this season, and I cannot believe bet365 is still offering odds as long as +225. The next-best price is +175, while most sportsbooks have him around +160.

• Pick: Keenan Allen Anytime TD (+225 at bet365)

Jalen Hurts

The Eagles at Buccaneers game features two good defenses that do not give up many touchdowns. The Bucs defense has only allowed a touchdown on 42.9% of their opponents’ red zone drives, which ties them for the fifth-best rate in that category. However, I think the Eagles’ Tush Push is too difficult to stop and will be what the Eagles lean on to keep the chains moving, and power forward when they find themselves in a goal line scenario.

Jalen Hurts has seen 10 of Philadelphia’s 30 red zone looks and five of their 12 goal line looks. He leads the team with four touchdowns and has at least one TD in all three games this season. I like Hurts to extend his TD streak to four games in Week 4.

• Pick: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-125 at Fanatics)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

In spite of Chris Rodriguez leading the Commanders backfield with 11 rushing attempts last week, the first game without Austin Ekeler, Jacory Croskey-Merritt was second with eight carries and the rookie actually played one more snap than Rodriguez.

I have said this before, and was proven wrong in Week 2, but I still believe we’re going to see the Commanders shift more and more of their snaps and touches towards Croskey-Merritt. He’s the most patient and explosive of the bunch, which makes him a great fit for Washington run scheme.

JCM leads the team with four red zone looks and has seen two of their five goal line looks. He has scored a touchdown in two of three games this season, and I like him to score another TD against a Falcons defense that is allowing TDs on 60% of their opponents’ red zone drives.

• Pick: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Anytime TD (+175 at ESPN Bet)

James Cook

James Cook has opened the 2025-26 NFL season with a touchdown in all three games and four total touchdowns, tying him for the league lead. He has seen a team-high 14 red zone looks, which is also fourth-most in the NFL, and is second to Josh Allen in goal line looks, with four to Allen’s five.

Cook is preparing for a Saints defense that has allowed:

• 10 total touchdowns
• TDs on 80% of their opponents’ red zone drives

I do appreciate that they only surrender 3.6 yards per carry, third-fewest in the league, and only two rushing touchdowns. However, Christian McCaffrey averaged 4.2 yards per rushing attempt against them, and their other two opponents (Seattle and Arizona) have not run the ball well against anyone. Buffalo’s offensive line is among the league’s best, and the threat of Josh Allen’s arm and legs will help further open things up for Cook.

Most sportsbooks are listing Cook at -200 odds or shorter to score a touchdown. I think that’s even a bit too long. I feel Cook’s true probability of scoring a touchdown is around 70%, which converts to -233 odds. That’s why I’m laying 1.5 units on Cook at -175 odds.

• Pick: James Cook Anytime TD (-175 at ESPN Bet)