NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets for Week 5: Expert Predictions for TD Props

• NFL touchdown props are available for all Week 5 NFL games at sports betting apps
• With fewer games on the schedule in Week 5, thanks to bye weeks beginning, bettors need to search harder for value in NFL TD props
• See my NFL touchdown picks for Week 5 below

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Between some injuries to key players and four teams on bye, successfully betting NFL touchdown scorers in Week 5 will be no simple task. With fewer games, the sportsbooks aren’t spread as thin in opening their NFL TD odds, leaving less likelihood for blatantly bad lines. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t great value to be found in the TD markets this week – you just have to look a little harder to find it.

I have dug deep into the red-zone usage stats, pertinent defensive metrics, including but not limited to red-zone TD% allowed, and mismatches I suspect offenses will look to exploit in Week 5. After all the research, I have come up with my favorite NFL touchdown scorer picks below.

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 5

I have 11 players I am betting to score a touchdown in Week 5. All of the TD picks above are half-unit bets except for Jonathan Taylor and James Cook, who are full-unit bets, as well as TJ Hockenson and Dallas Goedert, who are each 0.33-unit bets.

After getting off to a good start with NFL TD props this season, I have fumbled a bit over the last few weeks, with last week being my worst yet. I lost 1.92 units in going 5-9 with my picks. I hit both of the 1.5-unit bets, thankfully, but lost both the full-unit bets, and most of the half-unit risks. I plan on getting my money back in Week 5.

Continue reading below for my analysis and justification for each NFL TD prediction. If you’d like to see passing, rushing, and receiving props as well, head to our NFL props tool, where you’ll find all the player over/unders as well as the best odds for each side.

Xavier Worthy

I appreciate that the Jaguars are only allowing 18 points per game (fifth-best) and eight total touchdowns (tied for sixth-best) through four weeks, but I think a fair bit of that has to do with their competition so far. The Panthers and Texans each only managed to score 10 points, but neither team averages much more than that anyways.

The 49ers just scored 21 points against them last week, and it could have been a fair bit more if they didn’t turn the ball over four times, which is bang-on their season average, and the Bengals, led by Jake Browning, scored 31 points against them. All that is to say, I think the Chiefs will score some touchdowns in this game.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • October 3, 2025 at 5:28pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars

160 on DraftKings

CLOSED • 10/07/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1759512491557-5a21-280

I believe one of those touchdowns will be scored by Xavier Worthy, who returned from injury last week to play 58.9% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps. I’m betting Worthy this week because I believe he will be fully integrated into the offense, and his speed will be utilized in the red-zone, the same way it was over the second-half of last season.

Worthy did not see a single red-zone look last week, but I don’t believe that will be the norm. Andy Reid likes efficiency, and Worthy’s speed will improve their efficiency.

• Pick: Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+160 at DraftKings)

Davante Adams

Though it is Kyren Williams who has the shortest odds to score a TD among Rams players every week, the current touchdown leader on the team is actually Davante Adams. The veteran wide receiver has scored three touchdowns this season, scoring a TD in three of four games.

Adams leading the team in touchdowns is no fluke either. Here’s some of his usage stats and how he ranks among Rams players this season:

• 9 red zone looks (2nd)
• 47.4% of team’s red zone targets (1st)
• 4 goal line looks (1st)

For comparison’s sake, Williams leads the team with 12 red zone looks and Puka Nacua only sees 10.5% of LA’s red zone targets – this isn’t that abnormal, as Nacua only saw 18.9% of the Rams’ red zone targets across the previous two seasons. I wouldn’t bet on Adams maintaining a 47.4% target share in the red zone this season, but it is clear that Matthew Stafford likes throwing him the ball in that area.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • October 1, 2025 at 9:01pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams

125 on Bet365

CLOSED • 10/03/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1759352475811-5a21-506

The 49ers have only given up eight total touchdowns this season, only two of which came on the ground, and only allow a TD on 54.5% of their opponents’ red zone drives. With Robert Saleh back as DC, San Francisco’s run defense has received an instant boost. I expect they’ll ensure nothing comes easy for Williams in the red zone / goal line in Week 5.

While it’s probably safe to assume some regression in Adams’ TD numbers, I’m putting my money on him to make it four straight games with a touchdown.

• Pick: Davante Adams Anytime TD (+125 at bet365)

TJ Hockenson

The Vikings are playing their second game overseas in as many weeks, and they see another AFC North foe – this time the Cleveland Browns. No team has been better against the run than the Browns this season, as they only allow 2.7 yards per rushing attempt. For context, the next-best is the Patriots at 3.3 YPC.

While their defense hasn’t been great defending in the red-zone, giving up TDs on 75% of their opponents’ red-zone drives, teams are still not beating them on the ground very often. Of the 12 total touchdowns the Browns have surrendered, only two have been rushing TDs – only two teams have allowed fewer rushing touchdowns.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • October 2, 2025 at 2:55pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Player Prop

NFL • Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns

340 on FanDuel

CLOSED • 10/05/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1759416953849-5a21-627

Pair that with the fact that Minnesota has only scored three rushing touchdowns this season, one of which was a 14-yard QB run in Week 1, and I don’t expect we see the Vikings try to slam the ball into the endzone in goal-to-go situations. Last week was a great example of this, where they were struggling to run the ball against the Steelers. Minnesota ran 10 plays in the red-zone last week and eight of them were passes.

I think we’ll see a similar strategy rolled out against the Browns, and I like the price available with TJ Hockenson, who has four red-zone looks and one goal line look this season. Hockenson has only scored one TD this year, but it did come with Carson Wentz at QB. The tight end only saw seven targets over two JJ McCarthy starts, but has seen 11 over two Wentz starts. I like the usage and the situation!

• Pick: TJ Hockenson Anytime TD (+340 at FanDuel)

Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams is tied for the Cowboys team-lead in touchdowns with four, and has scored at least one TD in three of four games. He is the clear leader in both red-zone looks (13) and goal line looks (7). Williams has actually seen 53.8% of Dallas’ goal line looks.

The majority of this usage has come over the past two weeks, while Dallas has been without CeeDee Lamb – he only played seven snaps in Week 3 before leaving the game. Williams has received 8 of their 22 red zone looks and 5 of their 10 goal line looks in Weeks 3 and 4.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • October 2, 2025 at 3:16pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets

100 on DraftKings

CLOSED • 10/05/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1759418199312-5a21-950

The Cowboys are preparing for a Jets defense that has allowed 12 total touchdowns, four of which came on the ground. The Jets have been decent against the run, allowing 4.08 yards per rushing attempt, good for 15th in the NFL. But Green Bay is far better against the run, and that didn’t stop Williams from seeing plenty of red-zone and goal line looks, or scoring a TD, last week.

I like Williams to see plenty of volume again in Week 5, and love the +100 odds he’s getting to score a TD against a defense that’s allowing an average of 30 points per game.

• Pick: Javonte Williams Anytime TD (+100 at DraftKings)

Dallas Goedert

If there’s a weakness to be exploited in the Broncos defense, it’s their linebackers in coverage. Though they haven’t given up much to tight ends this season, that’s mostly because they have played two bad offenses (Titans and Bengals) and the Chargers don’t really incorporate a TE in their passing game a whole lot. The one game they played against a good TE was Week 2 against the Colts, when they gave up 79 yards on four receptions to Tyler Warren.

Denver has the best defense in the league when it comes to keeping their opponent out of the endzone. The Broncos have only allowed a touchdown on 25% of their opponents’ red-zone drives, and only sacrificed four total touchdowns. But as I mentioned, I don’t think they have played many good offenses.

The Eagles are very run-heavy in general, but especially in the red-zone. As we saw last week against a good Bucs defense that doesn’t give up much on the ground – two of five plays in the red zone were passes, and both plays run inside of the five-yard-line were passes – I believe the Eagles will need to use some deception to beat this Broncos defense.

Dallas Goedert saw both of those goal line looks last week, which led to two touchdowns for the tight end, and he has scored a touchdown in two of three games this season. I’m keeping this TD bet to 0.33 units, though, as I foresee this game not seeing too many touchdowns.

• Pick: Dallas Goedert Anytime TD (+400 at ESPN Bet)

Jonathan Taylor

Though Jonathan Taylor has only scored a touchdown in two of four games, he has four total touchdowns this season. Taylor’s usage this season has been fantastic and he’s really benefiting from having a QB who can make a defense pay for overcommitting to stop the run. Here’s a quick look at some of Taylor’s usage numbers:

• 22.75 looks per game (4th in NFL)
• 19.3 rushing attempts per game (T2nd in NFL)
• 63.6% of team’s rushing attempts (7th in NFL)
• 43.3% of team’s total touches (7th in NFL)
• Plays 82.4% of team’s offensive snaps (3rd among RBs in NFL)
• 18 red-zone looks (5th in NFL)
• 6 goal line looks (T3rd in NFL)

Taylor is Indianapolis’ clear workhorse back and he’s producing well for them.

While the Raiders have been decent against the run, only allowing 4.03 yards per carry, two of their four opponents aren’t very good at running the ball, and they did give up 201 yards on the ground to the Commanders, who were playing without Jayden Daniels.

I like the Colts to be able to move the ball without much trouble, and to continue leaning on Taylor down in the red-zone. Give me Taylor to score a touchdown for a full unit. I do expect this one will likely shorten leading up to kickoff, but I would not bet this any shorter than -175.

• Pick: Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD (-160 at ESPN Bet)

Jaxson Dart

What Jaxson Dart did last week against a good Chargers defense was extremely impressive. If you missed it, Dart only threw for 111 yards and one touchdown, but posted a passer rating of 96 and added 54 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown on ten attempts.

Dart is now preparing to see one of the league’s worst defenses in New Orleans. The Saints allow 30.3 points per game, third-worst in the league, 8.0 yards per passing attempt, sixth-worst, and give up a touchdown on 76.9% of their opponents’ red-zone drives, which is third-worst. While nine of the 13 touchdowns New Orleans has surrendered have come through the air, I don’t think that’s how the Giants will attack them on Sunday.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • October 2, 2025 at 8:20pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Player Prop

NFL • New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints

210 on FanDuel

CLOSED • 10/05/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1759436405297-5a21-691

With Malik Nabers done for the season, I think Brian Daboll opts to lean on the legs of his young QB and RB, especially when the field tightens up in the red-zone. Even with Nabers on the field for about a third of their game last week, the G-Men were still run-heavy in the red-zone.

New York ran 13 plays in the red-zone against the Chargers, and ten of them were runs. What’s really encouraging about those numbers when it comes to Dart’s anytime TD potential, is that the rookie QB saw three of the 13 red-zone looks and one of the seven goal line looks. Though Cam Skattebo is the more probable TD scorer, I don’t like the short +100 odds he’s getting.

• Pick: Jaxson Dart Anytime TD (+210 at FanDuel)

Chris Godwin

I completely understand anyone who was underwhelmed by Chris Godwin’s season-debut last week. He only caught three passes for 26 yards against a good Eagles defense. But it was a pretty inefficient day for the offense as a whole. Baker Mayfield only completed 22 of 40 pass attempts, and Emeka Egbuka only caught four passes as well – though, he turned his into 101 yards, thanks to a 77-yard reception.

I saw some things I really liked out of Godwin, and I think there’s value in betting him to score a touchdown in Week 5 against the Seahawks. Here are the data points I was encouraged by:

• Tied for team-high 10 targets
• Played 81% of their offensive snaps (Egbuka was only WR with higher percentage at 89%)
• Saw 1 of Tampa Bay’s 3 red-zone looks (only WR to see any)

Between the good Eagles defense they were facing, and it being Godwin’s first game back, I think some inefficiency is to be expected. The volume is clearly still there, though.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • October 2, 2025 at 8:36pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks

250 on Bet365

CLOSED • 10/05/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1759437392921-5a21-690

Godwin scored five touchdowns in the seven games he played last season, and had at least one TD in four of seven games. Also, in those seven games last season, he only saw double-digit targets in one of them. With neither Mike Evans or Bucky Irving practicing, and both expected to miss Sunday’s game, I think it’s fair to assume Godwin could see a similar number of targets, especially with how good Seattle is against the run – only allow 3.55 yards per rushing attempt (fourth-best).

The Seahawks are pretty good at defending their endzone, only allowing a touchdown on 46.2% of their opponents’ red-zone drives, but I don’t think they keep the Bucs out of the endzone the entire game.

• Pick: Chris Godwin Anytime TD (+250 at bet365)

Amon-Ra St Brown

Since stumbling a bit in Week 1 against the Packers, it seems the Lions offense has found their way. Detroit is averaging a league-high 34.3 points per game, and are tied for the league-lead with 16 offensive touchdowns.

Amon-Ra St Brown has been a big part of all the scoring, leading the team with six touchdowns. He has dominated Detroit’s red-zone targets, seeing 10 of the 20 passes they have thrown in the red-zone, and is tied for second on the team in red-zone looks with 11. It’s also really encouraging to see the Lions have scored 14 of their 16 touchdowns in the red-zone, and eight of those have been passing TDs.

The Bengals allow a touchdown on 66.7% of their opponents’ red-zone drives, and eight of the 13 touchdowns their defense has given up have come through the air. I absolutely believe Jahmyr Gibbs is going to score a touchdown in this one, but I don’t bet too many players with odds shorter than -200. This is not one of those times where I will bet it.

Instead, I’m opting for the team-leader in touchdowns, who I think should be given closer to -125 odds to score a touchdown this week.

• Pick: Amon-Ra St Brown Anytime TD (+105 at ESPN Bet)

Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston has scored a touchdown in three of four games this season, and has totaled four TDs this season. The speedy WR leads the Chargers in targets, receiving yards, and touchdowns.

LA hasn’t just been using him as a deep-threat, though. He is also tied for the second-most red zone looks and goal line looks.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • October 3, 2025 at 4:59pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Player Prop

NFL • Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Chargers

175 on Bet365

CLOSED • 10/05/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1759510748108-5a21-368

Up against a Commanders defense that’s allowing the third-most yards per pass attempt (8.6), and the second-most 40 and 50+ plays in the NFL, I like Johnston to get loose behind the secondary, as he has a few times already this season.

• Pick: Quentin Johnston Anytime TD (+175 at bet365)

James Cook

The Bills running back has scored at least one touchdown in all four games this season, and totaled five TDs so far in the 2025-26 season. The Bills offense is tied for the league-lead with 16 touchdowns, and nine of those have come on the ground. This is a team that loves to power the ball into the endzone once they reach the red-zone.

They’re really good at it too, scoring a TD on 66.7% of their red-zone drives. Cook has been the player leading the way, as he’s seen 19 of their 49 red-zone looks and five of their 13 goal line looks.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • October 3, 2025 at 5:25pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

-175 on Bet365

CLOSED • 10/06/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1759512305231-5a21-444

The Bills are preparing for a Pats defense that has allowed a TD on 87.5% of their opponents’ red-zone drives, which is second-worst in the NFL. While only two of the 10 touchdowns they have surrendered have been on the ground, they have yet to play an offense even remotely as close to Buffalo’s.

Cook should be shorter than -200 to score a touchdown in this one. So, I’m taking advantage of the perceived value and laying a full unit on Cook to score a TD.

• Pick: James Cook Anytime TD (-175 at bet365) – sign up for bet365 now to tail this pick!