NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets for Week 5: Expert Predictions for TD Props

• NFL touchdown props are available for all Week 5 NFL games at sports betting apps
• With fewer games on the schedule in Week 5, thanks to bye weeks beginning, bettors need to search harder for value in NFL TD props
• See my NFL touchdown picks for Week 5 below

Between some injuries to key players and four teams on bye, successfully betting NFL touchdown scorers in Week 5 will be no simple task. With fewer games, the sportsbooks aren’t spread as thin in opening their NFL TD odds, leaving less likelihood for blatantly bad lines. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t great value to be found in the TD markets this week – you just have to look a little harder to find it.

I have dug deep into the red-zone usage stats, pertinent defensive metrics, including but not limited to red-zone TD% allowed, and mismatches I suspect offenses will look to exploit in Week 5. After all the research, I have come up with my favorite NFL touchdown scorer picks below.

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 5

I currently have four players I am betting to score a touchdown in Week 5. All of the TD picks above are half-unit bets except for TJ Hockenson and Dallas Goedert, who are each 0.33-unit bets. I will be adding more ahead of Sunday, so be sure to check back after TNF as well.

After getting off to a good start with NFL TD props this season, I have fumbled a bit over the last few weeks, with last week being my worst yet. I lost 1.92 units in going 5-9 with my picks. I hit both of the 1.5-unit bets, thankfully, but lost both the full-unit bets, and most of the half-unit risks. I plan on getting my money back in Week 5.

Continue reading below for my analysis and justification for each NFL TD prediction. If you’d like to see passing, rushing, and receiving props as well, head to our NFL props tool, where you’ll find all the player over/unders as well as the best odds for each side.

Davante Adams

Though it is Kyren Williams who has the shortest odds to score a TD among Rams players every week, the current touchdown leader on the team is actually Davante Adams. The veteran wide receiver has scored three touchdowns this season, scoring a TD in three of four games.

Adams leading the team in touchdowns is no fluke either. Here’s some of his usage stats and how he ranks among Rams players this season:

• 9 red zone looks (2nd)
• 47.4% of team’s red zone targets (1st)
• 4 goal line looks (1st)

For comparison’s sake, Williams leads the team with 12 red zone looks and Puka Nacua only sees 10.5% of LA’s red zone targets – this isn’t that abnormal, as Nacua only saw 18.9% of the Rams’ red zone targets across the previous two seasons. I wouldn’t bet on Adams maintaining a 47.4% target share in the red zone this season, but it is clear that Matthew Stafford likes throwing him the ball in that area.

The 49ers have only given up eight total touchdowns this season, only two of which came on the ground, and only allow a TD on 54.5% of their opponents’ red zone drives. With Robert Saleh back as DC, San Francisco’s run defense has received an instant boost. I expect they’ll ensure nothing comes easy for Williams in the red zone / goal line in Week 5.

While it’s probably safe to assume some regression in Adams’ TD numbers, I’m putting my money on him to make it four straight games with a touchdown.

• Pick: Davante Adams Anytime TD (+125 at bet365) – sign up for bet365 now to tail this pick!

TJ Hockenson

The Vikings are playing their second game overseas in as many weeks, and they see another AFC North foe – this time the Cleveland Browns. No team has been better against the run than the Browns this season, as they only allow 2.7 yards per rushing attempt. For context, the next-best is the Patriots at 3.3 YPC.

While their defense hasn’t been great defending in the red-zone, giving up TDs on 75% of their opponents’ red-zone drives, teams are still not beating them on the ground very often. Of the 12 total touchdowns the Browns have surrendered, only two have been rushing TDs – only two teams have allowed fewer rushing touchdowns.

Pair that with the fact that Minnesota has only scored three rushing touchdowns this season, one of which was a 14-yard QB run in Week 1, and I don’t expect we see the Vikings try to slam the ball into the endzone in goal-to-go situations. Last week was a great example of this, where they were struggling to run the ball against the Steelers. Minnesota ran 10 plays in the red-zone last week and eight of them were passes.

I think we’ll see a similar strategy rolled out against the Browns, and I like the price available with TJ Hockenson, who has four red-zone looks and one goal line look this season. Hockenson has only scored one TD this year, but it did come with Carson Wentz at QB. The tight end only saw seven targets over two JJ McCarthy starts, but has seen 11 over two Wentz starts. I like the usage and the situation!

• Pick: TJ Hockenson Anytime TD (+340 at FanDuel)

Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams is tied for the Cowboys team-lead in touchdowns with four, and has scored at least one TD in three of four games. He is the clear leader in both red-zone looks (13) and goal line looks (7). Williams has actually seen 53.8% of Dallas’ goal line looks.

The majority of this usage has come over the past two weeks, while Dallas has been without CeeDee Lamb – he only played seven snaps in Week 3 before leaving the game. Williams has received 8 of their 22 red zone looks and 5 of their 10 goal line looks in Weeks 3 and 4.

The Cowboys are preparing for a Jets defense that has allowed 12 total touchdowns, four of which came on the ground. The Jets have been decent against the run, allowing 4.08 yards per rushing attempt, good for 15th in the NFL. But Green Bay is far better against the run, and that didn’t stop Williams from seeing plenty of red-zone and goal line looks, or scoring a TD, last week.

I like Williams to see plenty of volume again in Week 5, and love the +100 odds he’s getting to score a TD against a defense that’s allowing an average of 30 points per game.

• Pick: Javonte Williams Anytime TD (+100 at DraftKings)

Dallas Goedert

If there’s a weakness to be exploited in the Broncos defense, it’s their linebackers in coverage. Though they haven’t given up much to tight ends this season, that’s mostly because they have played two bad offenses (Titans and Bengals) and the Chargers don’t really incorporate a TE in their passing game a whole lot. The one game they played against a good TE was Week 2 against the Colts, when they gave up 79 yards on four receptions to Tyler Warren.

Denver has the best defense in the league when it comes to keeping their opponent out of the endzone. The Broncos have only allowed a touchdown on 25% of their opponents’ red-zone drives, and only sacrificed four total touchdowns. But as I mentioned, I don’t think they have played many good offenses.

The Eagles are very run-heavy in general, but especially in the red-zone. As we saw last week against a good Bucs defense that doesn’t give up much on the ground – two of five plays in the red zone were passes, and both plays run inside of the five-yard-line were passes – I believe the Eagles will need to use some deception to beat this Broncos defense.

Dallas Goedert saw both of those goal line looks last week, which led to two touchdowns for the tight end, and he has scored a touchdown in two of three games this season. I’m keeping this TD bet to 0.33 units, though, as I foresee this game not seeing too many touchdowns.

• Pick: Dallas Goedert Anytime TD (+400 at ESPN Bet)