- The Kansas City Chiefs are 7.5-point home favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, January 30
- KC is playing in the AFC title game at home for the fourth successive season
- Cincinnati is in the AFC Championship Game for the first time since the 1988-89 campaign — see who we like below
When it comes to the AFC Championship Game, so much more is favoring the Kansas City Chiefs over the Cincinnati Bengals beyond the point spread.
KC has been there and done that. This will be the fourth successive year that the Chiefs are playing in the AFC title game. It’s the first time the Bengals have done so since the 1988-89 season.
The Chiefs are 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in their last six home playoff games. Last week’s 19-16 AFC Divisional Round win at Tennessee was the first road playoff win in Cincinnati history. The Bengals are 1-7 SU away in their NFL postseason history.
Oddsmakers are leaning heavily toward the Chiefs to continue these trends. Kansas City are 7.5-point home favorites. The Chiefs are 3-1 ATS in their last four playoff games when favored by a touchdown or more.
Bengals vs Chiefs Odds
|O 54.5 (-110)
|Kansas City Chiefs
|U 54.5 (-110)
Odds as of January 29th at FanDuel
Kickoff for Sunday’s game is set for 3pm ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. The weather forecast is calling for cloudy skies, 2 mph wind and a temperature of 45 degrees. The broadcast is being carried by CBS.
Bengals vs Chiefs Line Movement
The public is firmly backing the Chiefs to roll on their way to a third straight Super Bowl appearance in the NFL betting trends. The point spread has steadily lengthened from an opening line of Kansas City -6.5. The public is wagering 75% of point spread handle and 60 of bets on the Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes called it 👀
Bengals vs Chiefs Part II 🍿
— PFF (@PFF) January 24, 2022
Moneyline wagering is also solidly behind KC. There’s 59% of handle and 60% of bets supporting the Chiefs.
Expectations are that the two teams will exceed the total of 54.5 points. Public wagering is showing 82% of handle and 75% of bets on the over.
Burrow vs Mahomes
Bengals QB Joe Burrow was expected to be this good. He was the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Burrow won the Heisman Trophy and a national championship at LSU.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes wasn’t affixed with the same can’t-miss tag. He came out of Texas Tech and was the second QB chosen in his NFL draft year, selected 10th overall. He’s since won a Super Bowl and an NFL MVP award.
Burrow vs. Mahomes: Round 2.
— NFL (@NFL) January 27, 2022
Burrow beat Mahomes and the Chiefs 34-31 in the regular season. Then again, Buffalo’s Josh Allen whipped KC 38-20 in the regular season but couldn’t get the job done last week in the playoffs. Allen is 0-2 in the postseason against Mahomes. Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson are each 0-1.
Burrow is trying to become the first QB to reach the Super in his first playoff appearance since San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick in 2012. Both are top-6 candidates in the 2022 NFL MVP odds.
Bengals vs Chiefs Injury Report
Strong safety Tyrann Mathieu (concussion) is the only Kansas City starter on the injury report. He’s listed as questionable.
Just how impactful is #Chiefs S Tyrann Mathieu? L'Jarius Sneed says that Mathieu calls out what's happening before every snap on the defensive side of the ball. Adds that Mathieu is always right too.
— Charles Goldman (@goldmctNFL) January 27, 2022
The Bengals report no injuries among their starters. Backup wide receiver/kicker returner Stanley Morgan Jr (hamstring) is doubtful.
Bengals vs Chiefs Betting Trends
Cincinnati is 2-0 SU in AFC Championship Games. However, both of those victories were home-field wins.
The Chiefs are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games. That one loss, though was a 34-31 setback at Cincinnati on Jan. 2. KC is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in the club’s last eight home games.
In Week 17, the @Bengals defeated the Chiefs 34-31 at the last second.
After the game, Patrick Mahomes told Joe Burrow, "See y'all in the playoffs."
Here we are.
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 25, 2022
Cincinnati is 3-1 and 4-0 ATS in the team’s last four road games. The Bengals are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the Chiefs. The total has gone under in six of the last seven games that Cincinnati has played at Kansas City.
Bengals vs Chiefs Prediction
A young, star-studded squad, the Chiefs probably look at the Bengals and see their old selves. If so, that’s good news for KC. The first playoff runs for the Mahomes-led Chiefs came to an end with an AFC Championship Game loss to the New England Patriots.
"I've seen the Chiefs score 54 in the postseason. I saw the Bengals last week score 1 touchdown… I like Joe Burrow, but he can't go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes because nobody can." — @getnickwright pic.twitter.com/QBZDbybG3k
— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) January 27, 2022
The Bengals can’t count on picking off Mahomes three times the way they did Titans QB Ryan Tannehill last week.
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 (-104)