Best Colts vs Cowboys Same-Game Parlay for SNF
- Colts vs Cowboys Same-Game Parlay picks are live for their Sunday Night Football matchup
- Will Dak Prescott exceed 224.5 Passing Yards? Can the Cowboys hold the Colts under 19 points?
- See the Colts vs Cowboys Same-Game Parlay picks below, plus analysis
The Jeff Saturday story was nice for a couple weeks but reality appears to have set in. The Colts (4-7-1, 2-3-1 away) and their new coach are fresh off an embarrassing loss at home to the Steelers on Monday night, and now have to go to Dallas to face the red-hot Cowboys (8-3, 5-1 home) on Sunday Night Football.
Not surprisingly, Indianapolis is a big ‘dog. The Colts are getting 10.5 points, but as we’ll discuss, the public doesn’t think that’s nearly enough. We agree that this game will likely be one-sided, but we’re not about to lay that many points in our Colts vs Cowboys same-game parlay.
Colts vs Cowboys Same-Game Parlay
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dak Prescott Over 224.5 Passing Yards | -165 |
| Indianapolis Colts Under 18.5 Points | -165 |
| Dallas Cowboys -6.5 | -190 |
| PARLAY ODDS | +260 |
Odds as of December 3 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings promo code where you can get a profit boost of up to 100% on any SGP in Week 13.
We like taking an alternate spread with Dallas, in addition to fading the Indy offense and backing Dak Prescott. Our Colts vs Cowboys SGP may only feature three legs, but it still pays out +260 odds if it hits.
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Dak Prescott Over 224.5 Passing Yards
Prescott has looked fantastic since returning from his thumb injury. He’s thrown for 250 or more yards in four consecutive starts, tossing 9 TD passes along the way.
He’s posted a 70% completion percentage or better in four of his last five outings, and through the air is where you want to attack Indy. The Colts rank 13th per DVOA against the pass, while up until this week they were a top-six graded run defense.
Are the @dallascowboys an NFC title contender? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/kzDEftGRQY
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) November 30, 2022
Indianapolis has a middling coverage grade per Pro Football Focus and a below average pressure rate. Prescott should be kept clean for most of the game and that’s bad news for Indy fans. Prescott has a 74.6% completion rate from a clean pocket this season, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. Fire up his overs in the Colts vs Cowboys player props.
Indianapolis Colts Under 18.5 Points
This is just a horrific matchup for the Colts offense for multiple reasons. For starters, the Cowboys are the number one defense per DVOA. They also lead the league in pressure rate, and have six more sacks than anyone else.
Indianapolis meanwhile, is 31st on offense per DVOA, while only the Texans and Broncos average fewer points. The Colts have failed to exceed 18 points in eight of 12 games this season, including in five of their past six. Matt Ryan has been an abject failure in his first season in Indy, ranking 29th in passer rating among qualified QB’s.
Troy is very close to just saying Matt Ryan sucks
— Booger (@ESPNBooger) November 29, 2022
Indianapolis is going to want to run as much as possible with Jonathan Taylor, but don’t expect that strategy to work. Over their past two games, Dallas has held star running backs Dalvin Cook and Saquon Barkley to 72 and 39 rushing yards respectively.
Given all the info above, it should come as no surprise that Indy is drawing just 35% of the spread money in the Colts vs Cowboys public betting splits.
Dallas Cowboys -6.5
Per the Colts vs Cowboys picks, Dallas has won five games by 12 or more points this season. They’re 3-1 against the spread in their last four home games, and 8-3 ATS overall, which is a top-five mark. Furthermore, the Cowboys lead the league in cover margin at +7.2 points, and are a league best 20-8 against the spread since the start of last season.
NFL Top-5 ATS Teams
| Team | ATS Record | Cover % | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8-3-0 | 72.7% | +0.9 |
| Tennessee Titans | 8-3-0 | 72.7% | +2.3 |
| NY Giants | 8-3-0 | 72.7% | +1.6 |
| Washington Commanders | 7-4-1 | 63.6% | +1.4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7-4-0 | 63.6% | +7.2 |
But here’s the thing, we’re not even asking them to cover the full 10.5 points, we just need them to win by a touchdown. Considering DVOA has these two teams graded 26 spots apart, that seems very doable. Also working in favor of Dallas is a relatively clean bill of health in the Colts vs Cowboys injury report.
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
