Upcoming Match-ups

Best Teams to Bet in 2019 NFL Season – See Which Playoff Teams Were Making Bettors Money

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Jan 1, 2020 · 2:42 PM PST

Drew Brees preparing to throw
Drew Brees' New Orleans Saints finished the 2019 regular season with the best record against the spread. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)
  • The 2019 NFL regular season has officially concluded and the playoffs will begin January 4
  • See which teams were the best bets against the spread, and which would have made you the most betting the moneyline during the regular season
  • You would never guess the team who would have made you the most money betting the moneyline

Perhaps it’s just recency bias, or maybe it’s the fact that I was on the wrong side of too many of them, but I can’t help but feel the 2019 NFL season will be remembered for all the bad beats sports bettors suffered through – the Eagles meaningless defensive touchdown against Washington in Week 15 as time was expiring really hurt!

To try to wash the bad taste left in my mouth from reflecting upon the season, I wanted to get away from discussing specific games and take a look at season-long trends.

Using SBD Sharp, our tool for analyzing team and league-wide betting trends, I gathered the teams who were the best bets against the spread, and the teams who were the best bet on the moneyline in the 2019 regular season.

I wanted to provide the top ten for each, but figured I would make sure all playoff teams are included to help you get a sense of which teams did and did not perform during the regular season.

Note: the tables are sorted by units won/lost, not records.

Best Teams Against the Spread in 2019

Rank Team ATS Record Units Won/Lost* ROI*
1 New Orleans Saints 11-5 +5.76 36%
2 Kansas City Chiefs 10-5-1 +4.97 31.1%
3 Los Angeles Rams 10-5-1 +4.55 28.4%
4 Baltimore Ravens 10-6 +3.88 24.3%
5 Arizona Cardinals 9-5-2 +3.63 22.7%
6 Buffalo Bills 9-5-2 +3.61 22.6%
7 Green Bay Packers 10-6 +3.29 20.6%
8 San Francisco 49ers 9-6-1 +2.52 15.8%
9 Minnesota Vikings 9-7 +1.66 10.4%
9 Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 +1.66 10.4%
14 New England Patriots 8-7-1 +0.74 4.6%
15 Tennessee Titans 8-7-1 +0.72 4.5%
19 Houston Texans 7-8-1 -1.24 -7.8%
20 Seattle Seahawks 7-8-1 -1.47 -9.2%
21 Philadelphia Eagles 7-9 -2.16 -13.5%

*Units won/lost and ROI assume you are betting the same amount of money on that specific team each week; bold font denotes a team who is in the playoffs

If you decided in Week 1 that you were going to bet the Saints ATS all season, you’re entering 2020 with a handful of extra units in your bankroll. If you missed out on betting them the first two weeks of the season, and just started blindly betting them from Week 3 on, you found the hottest bet of the year.

New Orleans covered 11 of their final 14 games, which includes six straight from Week 3 to 8, the longest cover streak any team enjoyed this season.

Drew Brees and the Saints head into Wild Card Weekend as heavy 8-point favorites against the Vikings. They were 2-1 ATS this season when laying between seven and ten points.

Baltimore enters 2020 on a nice streak of their own, covering the spread in nine of their last ten games. But they also suffered through a rough five-game losing streak against the spread from Week 2 to 6.

The Rams, Cardinals, and Steelers are the only three teams in the top ten who are not playing another game this season.

LA’s 2019 season will be seen as a disappointment after reaching the Super Bowl last year, but they didn’t disappoint (very often) when it came to covering the spread. And they did most of it as a favorite, as they were laying points in 13 of 16 games this season.

Looking to playoff teams, the Texans, Seahawks, and Eagles were all losing bets against the spread this season. Philadelphia was the worst of the bunch, losing you more than two units. And they needed three straight wins against the spread to close the season just in order to get to 7-9 on the season.

The Eagles are 1.5-point dogs vs the Seahawks, who were the next worst bet among playoff teams ATS, on Sunday. Philly was 3-4 ATS as an underdog this season. Seattle was just 4-6-1 against the spread when favored this season, though.

Most Profitable Teams on the Moneyline in 2019

Rank Team ML Record Units Won/Lost* ROI*
1 Miami Dolphins 5-11 +7.28 45.5%
2 New Orleans Saints 13-3 +6.1 38.1%
3 Baltimore Ravens 14-2 +5.38 33.6%
4 Green Bay Packers 13-3 +5.34 33.4%
5 San Francisco 49ers 13-3 +4.77 29.8%
6 Atlanta Falcons 7-9 +4.59 28.7%
7 Seattle Seahawks 11-5 +3.66 22.9%
8 Houston Texans 10-6 +3.31 20.7%
9 Kansas City Chiefs 12-4 +2.8 17.5%
10 Buffalo Bills 10-6 +2.43 15.2%
11 Tennessee Titans 9-7 +2.22 13.9%
18 Minnesota Vikings 10-6 -0.80 -5%
19 New England Patriots 12-4 -1.29 -8.1%
21 Philadelphia Eagles 9-7 -1.55 -9.7%

*Units won/lost and ROI assume you are betting the same amount of money on that specific team each week; bold font denotes a team who is in the playoffs

Despite winning the most games in the NFL this season, the Ravens were not the team that would have made moneyline bettors the most money. Baltimore is riding a 12-game winning streak entering the playoffs, the longest winning streak we’ve seen this season, but they were just too heavily favored in most of their games.

Baltimore was an underdog just four times this season, going 3-1 in those games.

The Dolphins, on the other hand, played all 16 games as an underdog in 2019. And thanks to their Week 17 victory over the Patriots, which was the biggest upset of the season (Miami was +750 on the moneyline and getting 17.5 points), Miami went from being a losing bet this season, to the best bet on the moneyline.

The Dolphins only won five games in 2019, but they made them count. In three of their five wins, Miami was +375 or longer. Had you, for whatever reason, stumbled upon the five games the Dolphins did win, and avoided the 11 losses, you would have been up 18.28 units.

San Francisco was the longest unbeaten team in the NFL this year, winning their first eight games. New England also won their first eight, but the Niners had a bye in Week 9, which is when the Pats lost their first game

Author Image