Upcoming Match-ups

Best NFL Week 13 Parlays and Teasers

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Dec 2, 2023 · 2:23 PM PST

Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) joins his teammates in celebrating his second half touchdown
Nov 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) joins his teammates in celebrating his second half touchdown against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
  • Our Week 13 parlay picks come in on the Dolphins, Chiefs and Jaguars
  • This weekend’s four-team Week 13 teaser picks has four teams all priced at +4.5 odds
  • Read on to see our breakdown of this week’s best Week 13 parlays and teasers to target this weekend

The picture is becoming clearer each week it seems and it’s becoming easier to target the few actually good, reliable teams in the NFL that can make good parlay bets. When it comes to the rest, the margins between winning and losing are so small that teaser picks become great ways to bet. Below we’ll break down our best bets for both in our NFL Week 13 parlays and teasers.

Week 13 Parlay Picks

Matchup Pick (Odds)
Dolphins vs Commanders Dolphins (-455)
Chiefs vs Packers Chiefs (-250)
Bengals vs Jaguars Jaguars (-375)

Our Week 13 parlay includes grouping together three heavy favorites in the Dolphins, Chiefs and Jaguars. That comes in at +116 odds. Odds at Draftkings Sportsbook. Get a full DraftKings review of one of the top sportsbooks in the industry here.

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NFL Week 13 Parlay Picks

The Dolphins beat up on bad teams. Washington is a bad team. The Packers seem to be rounding into form at the right time, but I’m still backing Patrick Mahomes over Jordan Love every week. I’m certainly not backing Jake Browning on the road in Jacksonville over Trevor Lawrence.

Dolphins vs Commanders

  • Pick: Dolphins

Both teams are coming in off of extra rest with Miami beating the New York Jets 34-13 on Black Friday and Washington getting routed 45-10 in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.

Miami has been beating bad teams for a while now. All of their wins have come versus teams with a losing record outside of 70-20 romp over the now 6-5 Broncos, though Denver was winless at the time.

The Commanders are another losing team, sitting at 4-8 and coming off an embarrasing 45-10 loss on Thanksgiving against Dallas.

This looks like it could be another tough matchup versus the league’s top-ranked passing attack. So far, 9/12 opposing quarterbacks have thrown for multiple touchdowns versus the Commanders’ 30th-ranked passing defense.

Here comes Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and a defense that has nine turnovers and 14 sacks in their past four games.

Chiefs vs Packers

  • Pick: Chiefs

Both teams are coming in off of wins and the Packers off of back-to-back wins. Green Bay has also won three of four with wins over Detroit, the LA Chargers and the Rams.

All of those teams rank in the bottom half of the league defensively. The Rams are 16th in PPG allowed, while the Lions and Chargers are also tied at 24th. The Rams were also playing with backup QB Brett Rypien.

Playing against the Chiefs’ third-ranked defense giving up just 16.5 PPG, will be a step up for Jordan Love and the Packers offense. While the Packers have hit 19 or more points in each of their last four games and 20-plus in three of four, they had scored 20 or more just once in the five games prior.

Bengals vs Jaguars

  • Pick: Jaguars

Jacksonville come in as big 8.5-point favorites. As they should be, sitting at 8-3, while Cincinnati are 5-6, losers of three straight. Playing at home hasn’t been as advantageous for Jacksonville as it should be at only 3-3 SU. But they’ll have a huge advantage with Jake Browning in at QB for the Bengals with Joe Burrow done for the year.

That was the case last week as well, with Browning going 19-26 for 227 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT and Cincinnati losing 16-10 at home to Pittsburg. The Bengals allowed 268 yards passing to Kenny Pickett (a season-high for Pickett), and 153 yards on the ground, combined for 421 total yards of offense for the Steelers. That marked the first time in 44 games Pittsburgh had topped the 400-yard mark.

Can Jacksonville do similar? Probably. They’re 12th in scoring, 13th in yards per game, 12th in passing and 18th in rushing. The Bengals are 26th defending the pass and 29th against the rush, so the Jags can take their pick of how they choose to attack.

  • Week 13 NFL Parlay Picks: Dolphins / Chiefs / Jaguars (+116); risk 1 unit at DraftKings

Week 13 Teaser Picks

Matchup Pick (Teaser Odds)
Lions vs Saints Lions +4.5 (-478)
Broncos vs Texans Texans +4.5 (-319)
Browns vs Rams Rams +4.5 (-434)
Chargers vs Patriots Chargers +4.5 (-574)

My Week 13 teasers have moved each of the Lions, Texans, Rams and Chargers to +4.5 underdogs. This four-teamer comes in at +129 at DraftKings.


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NFL Week 13 Teaser Picks

I’ve created this teaser by choosing alternate spreads at DraftKings, but you should be able to do so at most US betting sites as well as well.

This week’s Week 13 teaser strategy is simple. I’m making four teams that start as favorites, all 4.5-point underdogs. Each of the Lions (-4), Texans (-3), Rams (-4) and Chargers (-5.5) are small to medium-sized favorites that by adding 7-10 points to their spreads we can flip to 4.5-point dogs.

Lions vs Saints

  • Pick: Lions +4.5

Two teams coming off a Week 12 loss meet here, but two teams that are definitely at different ends of the NFL hierachy.

The Lions are 8-3 while the Saints are 5-6. New Orleans is coming off of a 24-15 loss to the Falcons and lost 27-19 to the Vikings the week prior.

Look at the Saints’ five wins and they have come against the Titans (4-7), Panthers (1-10), Patriots (2-9), Colts (6-5) and Bears (4-8).

You could possibly say the Lions have also beaten up on some weak teams outside of a Week 1 win over the Chiefs. Since, their wins are over the Falcons (5-6), Packers (5-6), Panthers (1-10), Bucs (4-7), Raiders (5-7), Chargers (4-7) and Bears (4-8).

The Lions have bounced back after their previous losses this season winning 20-6 after losing 37-31 to Seattle and winning 26-14 after losing 38-6 to Baltimore. They’re also 5-0 ATS in their next game following a loss going back to last season.

The Saints have been getting run all over lately including giving up 198 yards to the Falcons on the ground last week. The Lions can take a similar approach with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs this week.

Derek Carr and the Saints offense is struggling. Carr himself has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last two games. The Saints were 0-5 in the red zone last week and rank only ahead of the Giants in the NFC in red zone touchdown scoring. They’re already missing WR Michael Thomas on offense and CB Marshon Lattimore on the defense on IR, and this week WR Chris Olave could miss out being in concussion protocol as well.

Maybe the Saints’ defense keeps it close and gives them a chance, but they won’t win by more than four points.

Broncos vs Texans

  • Pick: Texans

Denver has won five-straight, their first five-game winning streak since 2015, making them now 6-5.

They have 15 takeaways in their past four games which has aided in their recent success. In their five wins they have a +13 turnover-differential.

CJ Stroud just broke a rookie record for the most passing yards in first 11 games, passing Justin Herbert’s previous record. Stroud is the first rookie to throw for 300-plus yards in four straight games as well.

Now Stroud has thrown four picks in his last three games but has also thrown for ten touchdown passes in his last four games, so perhaps some of that turnover luck with continue for Denver.

The Broncos beat the Browns at home last week 29-12, though rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson got knocked out of the game, giving way to back to PJ Walker again. If you look at their other five wins they have come by just 1, 2, 15, 2 and 3 points. The 15-point win was at home with Patrick Mahomes playing with the flu, so it’s clear to see the Broncos are winning, but the margins are tight and they’re getting some luck with the turnovers falling in their favor.

Win or lose, I can’t see Houston not keeping this close and possibly getting the straight up win. The Texans are 3-1 SU in their past four and haven’t lost by more than three points since Week 2.

Browns vs Rams

  • Pick: Rams +4.5

The Rams are not a team I really trust on a week-to-week basis. They’re 5-6 and prior to their last two wins, they had failed to win back-to-back games all season. So winning three straight will be tough. Luckily, I won’t need a straight up win or a cover in the NFL spreads, just anything other than a big loss in our Week 13 teaser picks.

There’s little debate that at full strength the Browns are the better team. But they are far from full strength, mainly at quarterback. It’s not Deshaun Watson this week. Nor is it PJ Walker. It’s very likely not even Dorian Thompson-Robinson. It looks like Joe Flacco, signed off the street (who knew he was still playing football), who will step into the starting role this week.

When we last saw Flacco he was throwing for 149 yards on 33 pass attempts versus the Dolphins in January 2022. That ended in an 11-6 loss. In fact, Flacco has barely ever felt what a win feels like while being a member of the Jets. He was 1-4 in 2022, 0-2 in 2021 and 0-5 in 2020. Those weren’t all starts, but if you include only games in which he’s started, he’s 1-10 SU in his last 11 career starts.

Enough about Flacco. The Browns also have Amari Cooper, Wyatt Teller, Myles Garrett, Anthony Walker Jr, Denzel Ward and Juan Thornhill all questionable on this week’s injury report.

And while the Browns are a top-ranked defnse, 7th in PPG allowed, there’s a big difference in their home/road splits.

Cleveland is 5-1 at home and has allowed 3, 3, 17, 0 and 10 points.

On the road they’re 2-3 and have given up 26, 38, 24, 31 and 29 points.

Give up anything like that to a Rams team that scores 21.1 PPG (16th), and it’s hard to see Flacco keeping up, much less winning by margin and ruining our Week 13 parlays and teasers.

Chargers vs Patriots

  • Pick: Chargers +4.5

Two slumping teams meet here with the 4-7 Chargers gong to Foxborough to face the 2-9 Patriots.

LA has lost three-straight while New England has lost four-straight.

The difference I see here is there is at least some talent with the Chargers side. But they continually find ways to lose and have a poor defense that gives up 23.5 PPG (24th) and gives up the most passing yards allowed per game (32nd).

But this could be a spot where that doesn’t matter. New England is 23rd in passing yards per game and 31st in scoring just 13.5 PPG. The Patriots have scored a miserable 7 and 6 points veruss the Giants and Colts respectively in their past two games, neither of which are strong defensive teams either.

And that’s because the Pats don’t have a starting QB or many offensive weapons. No matter if it’s Mac Jones, Bailey Zappy or Will Greir, it won’t matter. This Pats team is done.

The Chargers can at least score with Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. They lost 20-10 at home to Baltimore on SNF, though that’s Baltimore and it was 13-10 prior to a late meaningless score. Before that game, they had scored 20+ in four games. Score 20 here and it should be a win.

  • Week 13 NFL Teaser picks: Lions +4.5 / Texans +4.5 / Rams +4.5 / Chargers +4.5 (+121); risk 1 unit at DraftKings

Season record: 13-11, +0.57 units

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