You Can Get Patrick Mahomes at +600 Odds to Win 2019 NFL MVP; He’s Shorter Than 5-1 at Most Books
- Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is a +600 favorite to win the NFL MVP Award in 2019 at one particular sportsbook
- Every other betting site puts the odds on Mahomes under +500
- The Chiefs QB won NFL MVP in 2018 during his first year as a starter
If Patrick Mahomes can complete four out of every five passes this season, the odds of the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback repeating as MVP of the NFL would be greatly enhanced. If Mahomes does repeat as MVP, he’d be just the fifth player to do so in league history. He’d also be the fourth back-to-back MVP who was a QB.
One sportsbook, which shall remain nameless, seems less sold on the idea of this happening than the others, though. The average NFL MVP odds on Mahomes work out to +480. Yet one site has the reigning champ at +600.
2019 NFL MVP Odds
| Player (Team) | 2019 NFL MVP Odds at Sportsbook X |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) | +600 |
| Andrew Luck (Colts) | +900 |
| Aaron Rodgers (Packers) | +900 |
| Carson Wentz (Eagles) | +900 |
| Baker Mayfield (Browns) | +1200 |
Odds taken 07/19/19.
Peyton Manning (2003-04 and 2008-09), Brett Favre (1995-96), and Joe Montana (1989-90) are the three QBS to win outright back-to-back MVPs. Favre also shared the award with Detroit Lions running back Barry Sanders in 1997.
Cleveland Browns running back Jim Brown (1957-58) won the first two NFL MVP Awards ever presented.
Can Mahomes Do It Again?
Last season, Mahomes passed for a league-leading 50 touchdowns and was second overall with 5,079 yards through the air. That won him the MVP.
If he wants another MVP this season, he’ll need to do better. Awards voters tend to operate with a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately mindset.
Uncle Rico walked so Patrick Mahomes could run pic.twitter.com/jiNrpv7hlh
— Ciroc Obama (@SwagSurfin__) July 13, 2019
When Manning won his second straight MVP award in 2004, he followed up his league-leading passing yardage of 4,267 with 4,557. He improved his TD pass numbers from 29 to an NFL-best 49. From 2008-09, both numbers (4,002-4,500, 27-33) also increased.
Favre’s TD passes showed an uptick from 38 to 39 in 1995-96, while Montana’s passing yardage jumped from 3,521 to 3,944 from 1989-90.
Brown improved from 942 to 1,527 rushing yards from 1957-58 and his TDs went from nine to 17.
Should You Stand With Pat?
It’s almost a certainty that the MVP will be a QB. Six straight MVPs and 11 of the past 12 have played the position.
History, though, says that Mahomes is very unlikely to win again. With just four repeat winners among 64 overall MVP selections, that works out to a 6.25-percent chance of the same player winning two years in succession.
Wow. Patrick Mahomes already dominating the Broncos and it’s only July. pic.twitter.com/p0IeBaoEhD
— Going Deep (@goingdeep) July 18, 2019
Even if you count Favre’s three in a row from 1995-97 as two separate instances of a repeat performance, the odds are still only 7.81 percent.
Personally, I’d put my money on Indy QB Andrew Luck to win the award at +900. The Colts should win the AFC South Division title and Luck figures to post some impressive numbers.
The Chiefs will need to improve upon their AFC-best 12-4 mark of a year ago. Voters like MVPs who win. They also tend to lean toward feel-good stories.
However, Mahomes at +600 is hard to turn down. Putting a small wager on him at those odds is decent value.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
