Bills vs 49ers Props – MNF Best Team and Player Prop Bets for Week 13
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Updated: December 9, 2020 at 8:44 am ESTPublished:
- The Buffalo Bills clash with the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football (Dec. 7th, 8:15 pm EST)
- Our MNF prop bets were 0-4 in Week 12 (2020 season: -3.48 units)
- Read below for analysis and our favorite Monday Night Football prop bets
Fresh off a huge win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12, the San Francisco 49ers clash with the Buffalo Bills in the second game of a Monday Night Football doubleheader (Dec. 7, 8:15 pm EST).
This contest will take place in Arizona, the Niners new home for the rest of the season, and has seen a pretty big line move at online sportsbooks. Buffalo opened up as a 2.5-point favorite, but its San Francisco who is now favored by 1.
The Bills have struggled against the run all season, and seeing how that’s the 49ers calling card, our first player prop is going to target a favorable matchup for Raheem Mostert.
Bills vs 49ers Player Props
| Quarterback | Completions | Passing Yards | Passing TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 23.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) | 269.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 1.5 (Ov -143 | Un +115) |
| Nick Mullens (SF) | 22.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 250.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 1.5 (Ov -125 | Un +101) |
| Running Backs | Attempts | Rush Yards | Rush + Receiving Yards |
| Devin Singletary (BUF) | 8.5 (Ov -140 | Un +100) | 36.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 52.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
| Zack Moss (BUF) | 9.5 (Ov +100 | Un -140) | 34.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 44.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
| Raheem Mostert (SF) | 12.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 53.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 65.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
| Wide Receivers + Tight Ends | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Longest Reception |
| Stefon Diggs (BUF) | 6.5 (Ov +125 | Un -157) | 77.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 24.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
| Cole Beasley (BUF) | 4.5 (Ov -143 | Un +115) | 56.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 21.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
| Gabriel Davis (BUF) | 3.5 (Ov +125 | Un -157) | 41.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 20.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
| Deebo Samuel (SF) | 5.5 (Ov +125 | Un -157) | 48.5 (Ov -155 | Un +125) | 18.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
| Brandon Aiyuk (SF) | 4.5 (Ov +134 | Un -167) | 51.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 21.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
| Kendrick Bourne (SF) | 2.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 30.5 (Ov +100 | Un -124) | 16.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | 1.5 (Ov -143 | Un +115) | 15.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 11.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
| Jordan Reed (SF) | 3.5 (Ov +115 | Un -143) | 35.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 17.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
All Odds taken Dec. 7th at DraftKings.
Prop #1: Raheem Mostert Over 53.5 Rushing Yards
When San Francisco is firing on all cylinders, its mission is to run the ball down its opponents throat. That’s the strategy they rode to the Super Bowl last season, but injuries have made it far more difficult this year. The Niners were without Mostert for over a month, but he returned last week to pace the backfield in snaps and carries.
Sound up 🔊 : The squad was more than hyped for the return of Raheem Mostert Sunday 🙌🏼 | #49ers pic.twitter.com/wwMR0Psqy2
— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers_) December 2, 2020
He hit pay dirt against a very talented LA Rams defense, and now faces a Buffalo unit that has allowed the second most rushing yards before contact, and the ninth most production to the position.
The Bills are Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked run defense, and are just two games removed from surrendering 217 rushing yards to the Arizona Cardinals.
Mostert meanwhile, is averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season, and has cleared 53.5 yards on the ground in all but one contest.
Pick: Raheem Mostert Over 53.5 rushing yards (-112), 1 unit
Prop #2: Kendrick Bourne Under 30.5 Receiving Yards
Kendrick Bourne has popped up for a couple big games this season, but in each instance he was benefitting from the absence of either Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, or both.
49ers activated WR Brandon Aiyuk, DL D.J. Jones and DL Jordan Willis off their Reserve/COVID list.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 2, 2020
Now for the first time in well over a month, Samuel and Aiyuk will both be active and Bourne will likely get squeezed out.
Bourne has just four catches in the last three games that he, Samuel and Aiyuk have all played together, and the emergence of tight end Jordan Reed makes the target competition even stiffer.
Pick: Kendrick Bourne Under 30.5 receiving yards (-124), 1 unit
Bills vs 49ers Scoring Props
| Player | Odds to Score 1st TD | Odds to Score Any TD |
|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert (SF) | +750 | +105 |
| Stefon Diggs (BUF) | +1000 | +145 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +1100 | +175 |
| Deebo Samuel (SF) | +1200 | +190 |
| Tevin Coleman (SF) | +1300 | +200 |
| Cole Beasley (BUF) | +1300 | +210 |
| Devin Singletary (BUF) | +1400 | +225 |
| Zack Moss (BUF) | +1400 | +225 |
| Brandon Aiyuk (SF) | +1600 | +275 |
| Gabriel Davis (BUF) | +1600 | +260 |
| Jeff Wilson (SF) | +2200 | +400 |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | +2500 | +450 |
| Jordan Reed (SF) | +2800 | +475 |
| Jerick McKinnon (SF) | +3000 | +525 |
| Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) | +3000 | +525 |
| Kendrick Bourne (SF) | +3500 | +600 |
| Nick Mullens (SF) | +3500 | +650 |
Prop #3: Reed Strikes First
Speaking of Reed, he saw six targets from Nick Mullens for the second consecutive game last week, and has now been targeted at least that many times in all but one of his starts since George Kittle was injured.
JORDAN REED WHAT A CATCH🤯
— PFF (@PFF) November 15, 2020
He’s arguably San Fran’s biggest red zone weapon, and the matchup is extremely favorable. The Bills have allowed the second most receiving yards to tight ends this season, as well as six receiving touchdowns.
Pick: Jordan Reed to score first (+2800), 0.25 units, to score anytime (+475), 0.25 units
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
