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Bills Still Favored to Win AFC East, Dolphins’ Divisional Odds Improve to +280 After Week 10

Buffalo Bills
Can Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills hold off the surging Miami Dolphins in the AFC East? Photo by @NFLonCBS (Twitter).
  • Updated odds for AFC East Division have been released
  • The Buffalo Bills remain in the lead, but moved from -700 to -304 following their loss to Arizona along with Miami’s win against the Chargers
  • Read below for a full breakdown and pick

Save for the New York Jets, the teams in the AFC East have made their division one of the most compelling in the NFL.

Since July, the Buffalo Bills had been the presumptive favorite to win it, and at 7-3, are still in good position to do so. However, the unlikely Miami Dolphins have been the team to push them for the division crown, with the New England Patriots in the unfamiliar position of chasing. After the Dolphins’ win over the Los Angeles Chargers and the Bills’ loss to the Cardinals on Sunday, the division race tightened, and so too did the AFC East odds.

Buffalo retained its lead in the division, but Miami moved to 6-3 — already exceeding its win total from last season. New England did just enough to hold off Baltimore on Sunday night, but the Patriots are 4-5 and still have some work to do. The Bills won in their first meeting with the Dolphins in Week 2, but since then, Miami has found a new energy with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. The two teams don’t play again until the final week of the season, when significant matchups aren’t always easy to come by.

AFC East Odds

Team Odds Before Week 10 Current Odds
Buffalo Bills -700 -304
Miami Dolphins +459 +280
New England Patriots +2125 +1400
New York Jets +125000 +150000

Odds taken From BetMGM on Nov. 15th.

What’s next for Buffalo?

At this point, there isn’t any shame in losing to Arizona. The Cardinals have proven to be a solid team this season and are tied for the lead in a very competitive NFC West. The Bills had won their previous three games leading up to this week, including a game against Seattle, one of the teams tied with Arizona in the NFC West. Those wins followed consecutive losses to Tennessee, who didn’t lose its first game until Week 7, and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.

That being said, the Cardinals came back from a 14-point deficit with just over a quarter to play to snatch the win away from the Bills. Even though Buffalo had won its previous three, the Bills are fighting to work through a variety of illnesses and injuries. Quarterback Josh Allen has been one of the league’s best this season, but the defense hasn’t been as imposing as it was last season.

Can Miami pull it off?

Whether or not the Dolphins thought that they would compete for a division title this season is unclear, but the attitude that Tagovailoa has infused into the offense is obvious. He and Jakeem Grant looked like a couple of kids playing in the backyard, and running back Salvon Ahmed ripped off some big plays in lieu of his former college teammate Myles Gaskin against the Chargers.

The Dolphins have actually been sound against the pass, and have allowed the eighth-lowest opponent completion percentage in the league. They haven’t been quite as good against the run, but Buffalo has struggled in spots this season with that as well. Miami has a much friendlier schedule down the stretch than Buffalo, and Tagovailoa has proven to be a gamer that does a good job of getting the ball out quickly to receivers.

What’s the move?

New England lost its first game against Buffalo, but won against Miami on September 13. The difference for the Patriots’ rematch with both may hinge on the production of second-year running back Damien Harris. The former Alabama RB has run for more than 100 yards in two of his last three games — including a 121-yards on 22 carries in the pouring rain this week.

Meanwhile, the Patriots’ defense has been one of the least efficient units in the league this season. Coming into this week, the Patriots were dead last in opponent yards per completion and has the sixth-fewest sacks in the league.

With such a limited sample size on Tua, it’s tough to want to go all in on the Dolphins just yet. For value, the play is to take Miami, but it may be wise to give that decision one more week to see him play on the road against the Broncos before making that call. Both teams could realistically be 10-5 heading into Week 17, but Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is 3-0 outright at home against Miami, and their next game takes place in January.

Pick: Bills -304

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