Bills vs Dolphins Same-Game Parlay Predictions for SNF Week 18

• With the AFC East title on the line, the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins meet on Sunday Night Football in Week 18
• Buffalo routed Miami in Week , but is under .500 on the road this season
• See the best Bills vs Dolphins same-game parlay for SNF on Jan. 7

Atop the division since Week 1, the Miami Dolphins (11-5, 7-1 home, 10-6 ATS) enter the final Sunday of the season needing at least a tie to hold off the Buffalo Bills (10-6, 3-4 away, ATS) and claim their first AFC East title since 2008.

Buffalo crushed Miami 48-20 in Buffalo in Week 4 and enter the Week 18 rematch as three-point road favorites in the Bills vs Dolphins odds. Today’s same-game parlay, though, projects a much different result.

Bills vs Dolphins Same-Game Parlay

This week’s same-game parlay has three mostly-correlated plays that all hinge on Miami putting in a much better performance than it did in Week 4. It starts with the Bills staying under their team total, continues with Miami covering an alternate spread, and finishes with running back De’Von Achane finding the end zone.

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I was entirely too optimistic about Jaren Hall and the Vikings last week, dropping my season-long balance to +4.13 units on same-game parlays.

BUF vs MIA Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Bills Total Points Under 25.5

Buffalo has only exceeded 25 points in two of seven road games so far this season. Their sub-.500 play away from home (3-4 straight-up) is the reason they haven’t clinched a playoff spot, despite sitting third in the NFL in DVOA and fourth in point differential (+133).

Meanwhile the Miami defense has been rock-solid at home, averaging just 19.9 PPG at Hard Rock Stadium. Yes, the bulk of their opponents have been non-playoff teams, but that includes games against the Cowboys (22-20 win), Broncos (70-20 win), and Raiders (20-13 win). Overall, Miami’s D ranks just 19th in DVOA thanks largely to a pair of lopsided defeats (the aforementioned 48-20 setback at Buffalo, plus a 56-19 rout in Baltimore last Sunday) but they grade out as the third-best defense according to PFF, including the second-best rush defense and fifth-best pass rush.

Bills vs Dolphins Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Alternate Spread Miami +7.5

This second leg of the parlay is motivated by the same rationale as the first. Buffalo has been a thoroughly mediocre road team all season (and has a long history of stark home/road splits) while the Dolphins are 7-1 at home this season, with their only loss an incomprehensible 28-27 setback to Tennessee, a game they led by 13 points with under five minutes to play thanks to Titans miscues.

ANOTHER BRUTAL TURNOVER FOR THE TITANS 😱

Derrick Henry couldn't handle the pitch and the Dolphins take the ball right back 👀pic.twitter.com/EJGFJXv7S1

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) December 12, 2023

Miami detractors have pointed out that their schedule was abhorrently easy in the early part of the season. In Week 16, they finally picked up their first win over a team that’s over .500, beating the Cowboys 22-20. While they needed a last-second field goal to earn the victory, they outgained Dallas 375-339, put up more yards per play (5.9 to 5.6), and had four-times as many sacks.

Bills vs Dolphins SGP Pick #3: De’Von Achane Over 0.5 TDs

The latest news out of Miami camp is that record-setting running back Raheem Mostert is unlikely to play this week due to a knee injury. Mostert’s absence is going to open up more space for rookie speedster De’Von Achane. With Mostert limited last week, Achane had 107 yards on 14 carries plus another 30 receiving yards and a major through the air. With ten touchdowns on the season, Achane is well behind Mostert (21), but Achane has scored at least one touchdown in every game in which he’s had double-digit carries.

Even if Mostert is in the lineup, he isn’t going to be close to 100% and Achane should once again see the bulk of the carries.

Assuming that Miami does at least keep this game close, Achane will have to be a big part of their offense.