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Bills vs Chiefs Odds, Betting Lines, Predictions, Picks, History, and Weather Report

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Jan 22, 2022 · 7:53 AM PST

Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes handshake, Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, left, greets Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen during pre-game warmups before an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 10, 2021 in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
  • The Buffalo Bills take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs
  • 2021 Playoff Record: 0-1, -1.0 units; 2021 Regular Season Record: 11-9, -0.63 units
  • See the Bills vs Chiefs odds ahead of kick-off at 6:30 pm EST from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

One of the most intriguing games of the NFL’s Divisional Round is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game.

After thrashing the Patriots a week ago in Buffalo, the Bills travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. KC is coming off of a blowout of their down, sending Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers packing.

The rematch wraps up the Divisional Round on Sunday at 6:30 pm EST from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

Bills vs Chiefs Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Buffalo Bills -105 +1.5 (-110) Ov 54.0 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs -115 -1.5 (-110) Un 54.0 (-110)

Odds as of January 21st at DraftKings

The Chiefs are home favorites entering Sunday, but they own the slimmest odds of any of the four home teams this weekend. After covering in six-straight, KC was 0-2 ATS to close the season before covering against the Steelers. Including Super Wild Card Weekend, the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five.

NFL public money has been heavily backing an over in both bets and handle, with a lot of money on the Bills outright closing the gap. Entering Friday, the public was actually split 50/50 on the spread in terms of total bets, with a slight edge to the Bills on the handle when it came to the spread.

Bills vs Chiefs Injury Report and Weather

The Buffalo Bills entered Wild Card Weekend with a clean bill of health. And they pretty much left it the same way.

Just one player showed up on the injury report throughout the week, defensive end Mario Addison.

Divisional Round Injury Report

Bills Injury, Status Chiefs Injury, Status
Mario Addison, DE Shoulder, No Designation Darrel Williams, RB Toe, Qustionable
N/A N/A Rashad Fenton, CB Back, Questionable

The Chiefs are dealing with minor injuries to a handful of players, and their running backs are still banged up.

Darrel Williams’ toe injury proved to be an issue throughout the practice week again. He received just one carry for four yards against Pittsburgh. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a full participant throughout the week though, which means he could work in tandem with Jerick McKinnon.

Kansas City was frigid throughout the week, but things improved heading into the weekend. Sunday night projects to be just above freezing, with winds in the 10-15 mph range.

Bills vs Chiefs Recent History

Including last year’s AFC Championship game, this will be the third time the Bills have met the Chiefs since Josh Allen was drafted.

The one consistent thing about these matchups is that they’ve been fairly high-scoring. Allen has thrown multiple TDs in all three, so the Bills should be able to hold up their end of the bargain offensively.

Bills vs Chiefs: Last Three Meetings

Date Away Team Home Team Result Closing Line Total
October 19, 2020 Kansas City Chiefs Buffalo Bills 26-17 KC KC -5.5 55.0 (Under)
January 24, 2021 Buffalo Bills Kansas City Chiefs 38-24 KC KC -3.0 55.0 (Over)
October 10, 2021 Buffalo Bills Kansas City Chiefs 38-20 BUF KC -2.5 56.5 (Over)

The Chiefs have been favored in all three matchups, with Buffalo finally covering and winning outright earlier this season.

Their last two matchups indicate that points will be pretty easy to come by, and that trend should continue. KC surrendered the eighth-most passing yards this season, and gave up the sixth-most rushing yards to QBs.

Of note to prop bettors, KC was first in QB rushing TDs allowed with seven.

The Bills gave up five scores on the ground to QBs, but were much better through the air. Buffalo allowed the fewest passing yards and TDs against. AFC East signal callers played a big part in skewing those numbers however. Patrick Mahomes threw for 272 yards in the first meeting, but the Chiefs spent most of it playing from behind.

Bills vs Chiefs Prediction

There is a lot of emotion and a lot of history between two teams and two QBs who have met just three times.

While the other AFC Divisional Round matchup seems like it’ll be a fight that goes to the mat, these two are going to go toe-to-toe, face-to-face. There will be a lot of punches thrown in this one, and with the quick-strike nature of both sides, it won’t be over until the clock reaches zero.

Buckle up, Sunday night will be fun.

The Pick: Over 54.0 (-110); 1 unit

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