- The Vikings entered Week 3 as 17-point favorites over the Bills
- Minnesota was stunned by Buffalo, 27-6
- Has the loss brought value in betting Minnesota to win Super Bowl 53?
Minnesota’s absolutely stunning 27-6 loss to the Buffalo Bills would’ve done real vikings proud.
They pillaged everyone’s parlays, tore down every teaser, and left virtually no survivors in survivor pools. It was one of the most destructive losses you’ll ever see in Week 3.
And yet, their Super Bowl 53 odds don’t really reflect that. You do at least have to flip to the “Top 7” tab in the graph below.
Average Super Bowl 53 Odds
The Minnesota Vikings are no doubt a talent-rich team with endless potential. One sportsbook clearly recognizes this, still listing them at +1200, shorter than most other books.
Odds to Win Super Bowl 53
|Team||2018 Record||Odds to win Super Bowl 53 Sportsbook X|
|Los Angeles Rams||3-0||+450|
|New England Patriots||1-2||+800|
|Kansas City Chiefs||3-0||+900|
But are they worth placing a bet on this week?
Perhaps it would be an easier answer if this were the first time they had suffered such a lopsided defeat to a seemingly underwhelming quarterback?
Vikings out here playing like it's the NFC Championship game.
— NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) September 23, 2018
What’s Wrong with the Vikings D?
Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence.
I don’t remember what the third time is, but it might be coming soon.
Don’t get me wrong, Minnesota has a great defense. It’s insanely fun to watch. Given the amount of talent they have and the time they’ve spent together, they can throw some deceptive looks at teams and truly confound offensive lines.
But when the defense can’t stick to their game plan and do what they do best, wreak havoc on third and long, they have trouble adjusting and communicating.
In their last two blowout losses, their opponent has thrown one wrinkle at them they weren’t prepared for and all of a sudden, everything unraveled. Against the Eagles it was the run pass option.
Shot 9 – #Eagles came out of the locker room to start the second half with what I believe to be five straight RPOs. Some were runs, some were passes, but Foles moving the offense on gains of 4, 6, 3, 10 and 5 to get them to midfield on schedule #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/eN0H9dLZFF
— Fran Duffy (@fduffy3) January 23, 2018
Against the Bills, it was Josh Allen’s scrambling ability they were unprepared for. And before you know it, they were having breakdowns like this.
Josh Allen to Jason Croom for ANOTHER @buffalobills TD!
— NFL (@NFL) September 23, 2018
Look at the teams above Minnesota on the odds board and think of their coaches.
Sean McVay, Andy Reid, Bill Belichick, Doug Pederson. They’re all capable of scheming up something to throw this defense off their rhythm. Minnesota’s D will need some help this year to win the franchises’s first Super Bowl.
What About That Viking Offense?
Here’s a fun fact: the Vikings haven’t won a game that they trailed by 10 or more points in since Week 3 of 2016.
They are front runners if ever there was one. The second Minnesota falls into obvious pass situations, one thing becomes clear; that offensive line didn’t make as many strides as people thought in 2017.
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 23, 2018
Case Keenum was an excellent passer under pressure. Kirk Cousins is more, “meh.” He did manage to lead quite the comeback against Green Bay in Week 2.
But that game should give you another reason to question picking the Vikes to win it all… they are cursed at the kicker position.
Oops. Wrong play. (But you get the idea.)
Where is the Value in Super Bowl 53 Betting?
Minnesota is in a tough spot on a short week, missing Everson Griffen, and possibly tackle Riley Reiff. I don’t expect another blowout, but I also don’t expect an odds lowering win. Waiting on a Vikes future won’t kill you.
Teams whose odds I can see getting shorter in the coming weeks include the Chargers and Saints, who have easy schedules and reinforcements coming soon (Joey Bosa and Mark Ingram). Maybe give them a look.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.