Cal vs Hawaii Prediction, Picks, Odds & Opt Out News (Dec. 24)

• The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are 1.5-point home favorites vs Cal in the Hawaii Bowl
• The Golden Bears ended the reglar season with two upset wins in three weeks over ranked teams
• See my Cal vs Hawaii prediction and Hawaii Bowl spread below

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After a sizzling finish to the year — including knocking off a pair of ranked teams — the California Golden Bears (7-5) look to wrap up their year in style as they battle the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in the Hawaii Bowl.

The books have the Warriors as the slight betting favorite in the college football odds, but I’ll tell you why I like the visitors to pull of an upset in my Golden Bears vs Rainbow Warriors prediction.

Action gets underway Christmas Eve at 8pm ET from the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, HI, with ESPN carrying the broadcast coverage.

Check my Cal vs Hawaii preview and analysis, as well as my betting prediction for the Hawaii Bowl.

Cal vs Hawaii Prediction

We could be witnessing the Heisman campaign for 2026 hopeful Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele in its early days.

The freshman pivot for Cal will be returning to his home state for the Hawaii Bowl, as he grew up just a little bit outside Honolulu in Ewa Beach.

He’s coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 330 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-35 upset of the 21st-ranked SMU Mustangs. Two weeks prior, Sagapolutele dropped no. 15 Louisville 29-26 in OT, as he threw for 323 yards and a pair of scores.

It was quite a closing schedule for the Bears, who faced three ranked teams in the final four weeks, and it’s that level -up in play that has them favored against the home team.

Like Cal, Hawaii finished the year with two wins and two losses, including a 27-7 win over Wyoming to close out the year.

The Rainbow Warriors have their own offensive dynamo in freshman QB Micah Alejado. After battling injuries early in the season, he finished the year throwing for 2,832 yards and 21 TD’s against nine interceptions.

Alejado’s play helped pace the Warriors to a 28.5 point scoring average, good for fifth in Mountain West, and fronted by the top passing attack in the conference, piling up 289.7 pass yards per game.

These teams are eerily similar across the board in other key categories too. Passing will be the majority of the plays we’ll see, as both teams mostly abandon the run.

Cal actually ranks dead last in college football in rushing, averaging just 76.5 yards per game, and Hawaii is right there in the bottom 10, averaging just 104 yards per contest.

The Golden Bears are slightly stronger on the defensive end, as they allow 359 yards per game, and they are solid against the pass, allowing just 197.3 yards per game, good for 34th in the nation.

Cal vs Hawaii: Key Offensive Stats

Hawaii is also inside the Top 60 in total yards defensively at 351 per contest, and they’re 61st in passing yards allowed at 218 per game.

These teams do have one common opponent: Stanford hammered Cal in between those two upset wins to end the year 31-10, a team the Rainbow Warriors upended 23-20 to kick off the season.

The body of work is more important, though: Cal has played a tougher slate coming home, and that’s something you can’t replicate in practice or simulation. With all else being relatively equal, I like the Golden Bears to take the Hawaii Bowl from the hosts.

Cal vs Hawaii Opt Outs

According to the college football opt outs tracker, there are not a lot of players that are sitting this one out. In fact, only Hawaii receiver Jackson Harris has entered the transfer portal.

But this one is going to hurt the Hawaii offense, big time.

Harris led the team in receiving yards (963) and had 12 TD’s, while ranking second on the team with 49 receptions. He led the team in receiving yards in each of the final seven games of the season.

Cal vs Hawaii Sheraton Haawai’i Bowl Spread

The interactive table above will automatically update as the college football odds move over the course of the day.

If you’re looking for the best upset odds, head over to FanDuel, where the Golden Bears are sitting at +102, while Hawaii’s best odds as a moneyline favorite are from BetMGM at -115.

DraftKings has Cal as a 1.5-point dog at -110, and bet365 has the Rainbow Warriors as a -1 favorite, also at -110 odds.

Targeting the Over? bet365 has the total at a generous 50.5 points, while Under bettors should run to FanDuel to get a full two extra points at 52.5 points.

Odds as of Dec. 23 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on College Football Bowl Games.

As for the college football public betting trends, the public is going hard at the Under, with 79% of the bets and money on Under 51.5 points. The public also has 59% of the bets and 54% of the money on Cal winning outright at +100, and similar sort of numbers on Cal as +1.5-point dogs, with 60% of the wagers and 59% of the money siding with the Golden Bears.