- The LA Chargers clash with the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football (Oct. 12th, 8:15 pm EST)
- Our MNF prop bets were 3-1 in Week 4 (2020 season: -1.77 units)
- Read below for analysis and our favorite Monday Night Football prop bets
Monday Night Football this week was supposed to mark the return of reigning receiving King Michael Thomas to the New Orleans Saints’ lineup. Unfortunately, that won’t be happening, but not because of an injury setback.
Saints’ WR Michael Thomas had an altercation with a teammate at practice this weekend, per league sources. Saints now disciplining Thomas by sitting him Monday night, when he was being listed as questionable with an ankle injury.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 11, 2020
Thomas hasn’t played since Week 1 due to a high-ankle sprain, and when he’s out of the lineup, no one benefits more than Alvin Kamara. The New Orleans RB gobbles up all the underneath work in the passing game, something we can definitely take advantage of in the NFL prop betting market.
Chargers vs Saints Player Props
|Quarterback||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TD|
|Justin Herbert (LAC)||22.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||260.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||1.5 (Ov -125 | Un +101)|
|Drew Brees (NO)||23.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||262.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||1.5 (Ov -200 | Un +159)|
|Running Backs||Rush Attempts||Rush Yards||Rush + Receiving Yards|
|Joshua Kelley (LAC)||13.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||49.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Alvin Kamara (NO)||17.5 (Ov +100 | Un -140)||67.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||113.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Latavius Murray (NO)||10.5 (Ov -140 | Un +100)||38.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Wide Receivers + Tight Ends||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Keenan Allen (LAC)||6.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||77.5 (Ov -112| Un -112)||24.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Emmanuel Sanders (NO)||N/A||51.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||22.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Tre’Quan Smith (NO)||N/A||49.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||20.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Hunter Henry (LAC)||4.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||50.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
All Odds taken Oct. 12th at DraftKings
Prop #1: Alvin Kamara Over 46.5 Receiving Yards
In three games without Thomas this season, Kamara has racked up catch totals of 9, 13 and 3. He’s totalled 270 receiving yards during that stretch and has been Drew Brees’ most reliable target.
Packers defense looking like a freshmen high school team as Alvin Kamara runs through everyone for a TD pic.twitter.com/8VzgNPEoXJ
— Eric Rosenthal (@ericsports) September 28, 2020
Brees’ average yards per attempt is down at 7.8 this season, which aligns perfectly with the type of routes Kamara likes to run. Also working in his favor is the fact that the Chargers defense has been decimated by injuries. Half of their defensive line is missing in action, as is stud safety Derwin James who was lost to IR before the season started.
LAC is allowing the sixth most catches to opposing running backs so far in 2020, which makes this an ideal spot for Kamara.
Pick: Kamara Over 46.5 receiving yards, 2 units
Prop #2: Joshua Kelley Under 49.5 Rushing Yards
Austin Ekeler is out which means rookie Joshua Kelly is now LA’s lead back. Kelley started off the year strong posting at least 60 yards rushing in the first two games of the season, but struggled in Weeks 3 and 4. He contributed just 50 rush yards total in those games, while losing two fumbles.
Chargers final HB snap count
Joshua Kelley 30
Justin Jackson 21
Austin Ekeler 3(injured)
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) October 4, 2020
He’s averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and will face competition for work from Justin Jackson. Once Ekeler went down in Week 4, Kelley only out-touched Jackson 12-8, and played on just 57% of the offensive snaps.
The matchup against New Orleans’ rush defense is not favorable, as the Saints are allowing just 3.57 yards per rush attempt. Los Angeles is a significant underdog in the Chargers vs Saints odds, and could be forced to abandon the run if they get down early.
Pick: Kelley Under 49.5 rushing yards, 1 unit
Chargers vs Saints Scoring Props
|Player||Odds to Score 1st TD||Odds to Score Any TD|
|Alvin Kamara (NO)||+425||-250|
|Keenan Allen (LAC)||+900||+110|
|Latavius Murray (NO)||+1100||+150|
|Emmanuel Sanders (NO)||+1100||+150|
|Joshua Kelley (LAC)||+1200||+150|
|Tre’Quan Smith (NO)||+1300||+190|
|Hunter Henry (LAC)||+1300||+165|
|Justin Jackson (LAC)||+1600||+225|
|Mike Williams (LAC)||+1800||+260|
|Jaylen Guyton (LAC)||+2000||+300|
|Justin Herbert (LAC)||+2000||+300|
|Taysom Hill (NO)||+2500||+400|
Prop #3: Kamara Strikes First
Kamara’s usage in general is off the charts, but it gets amped up in the red zone. He has 14 carries and 7 targets inside the 20-yard line this season, and his seven touchdowns are more than he had in the entire 2019 season. Yes, he has the shortest odds to score first, but +425 is still a very appealing price tag.
In addition to Kamara, I’m also going to sprinkle a quarter of a unit on Hunter Henry. He’s seen target counts of 8, 7 and 4 with Herbert under center, and tight ends have been feasting on the Saints all season.
Rivers ➡️ Hunter Henry
— PFF (@PFF) November 8, 2019
New Orleans has given up 26 receptions for 283 yards and four TD to opposing tight ends, allowing at least one touchdown in each game. Henry has yet to hit paydirt this season, but I’m betting that changes on Monday.
Keenan Allen is also due for some positive touchdown regression, as he’s found the end zone just once despite commanding a team-high 40 targets. He has at least 7 catches in all three games with Herbert, and it’s only a matter of time before they start connecting more often for scores.
Picks: Kamara to score first (+425), 0.5 units, Henry to score first (+1300), 0.25 units, Allen to score anytime (+110), 1 unit
Let's have fun and keep it civil.