Chargers vs Patriots Expert Picks, Predictions, Betting Splits & Injuries
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
- The Patriots are modest home favorites against the Chargers on Sunday night (Jan. 11)
- Both teams have one offensive starter and defensive starter listed as questionable
- See Chargers vs Patriots expert picks, plus the latest betting lines and splits, and final injury reports
The NFL playoffs continue on Sunday night with a compelling Wild Card clash between the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6, 5-3 away, 9-8 ATS) and New England Patriots (14-3, 6-3 home, 11-6 ATS) at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. The Patriots enter as the established home favorites after capturing the AFC East. Meanwhile, the Chargers secured their playoff berth with an 11-6 campaign, finishing second in the AFC West as the #7 seed and now playing the challenging role of road underdogs.
With both teams managing key injuries and light rain forecast in Foxborough, the stage is set for a gritty playoff battle. The action kicks off at 8:15 pm ET, broadcast nationally on NBC/Peacock. This preview dissects the statistical matchups and injury implications to deliver my top Chargers vs Patriots picks and predictions.
Go to: PICKS || ODDS || SPLITS || INJURIES
Chargers vs Patriots Picks & Predictions
The betting market expects a Patriots-controlled game with moderate scoring potential. The 45.5-point total reflects typical January football, and injury concerns to skill-position players on both sides suggest defensive intensity will reign supreme.
ATS Pick: New England Patriots -3.5 (-105) at bet365
The Patriots are the far superior team based on basically every metric, superficial and advanced. The Pats ranked first in the entire NFL in EPA per pay (compared to the Chargers in a subpar 25th). New England also rated ninth in overall DVOA (compared to the Chargers in 17th) and fourth at PFF (compared to the Chargers in 21st). New England’s +170 point differential was 142 better than LA’s +28 mark.
In reality, the Chargers were extremely lucky to go 11-6, eking out wins while playing a below-average schedule. The Pats also had an easy NFL strength of schedule but were blowing teams out on a weekly basis.
New England won 13 of its final 14 games, and 11 of those 13 wins came by more than a field goal, propelling Mike Vrabel’s team to a 11-6 ATS record (third-best in the NFL).
Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Odds
The current Chargers/Patriots spread is NE -3.5 across the board, with both teams available at -105 to cover at competing sportsbooks. Chargers ATS bettors can find the best price at DraftKings, while Patriots ATS bettors can find the best odds at bet365, which also has the best New England moneyline (-190). BetMGM has the longest odds on an LAC upset.
The game total has been bet into uniformity, with all books sitting at 45.5. They pretty much all have -110 odds both ways, as well. There’s little point in line shopping the total at the moment, though that could change before kickoff. The odds in the table above will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the lines move before kickoff. SBD’s NFL odds page also displays up-to-the-minute lines.
Converting these moneyline odds to vig-free implied probabilities shows the Patriots have a 63.9% chance to advance, compared to 36.1% for the Chargers.
Chargers vs Patriots Public Betting: Wild Card Money Movement
The NFL public betting percentages reveal strong consensus on the favorite while creating potential contrarian value elsewhere. Sharp-versus-public splits emerge in key areas, presenting opportunities for discerning bettors.
- Moneyline: Overwhelming public support backs the home team with 78% of the handle on the New England Patriots, leaving just 22% on the visiting Chargers
- Point Spread: More balanced distribution shows 54% of the money supporting Patriots -3.5, while 46% backs the Chargers +3.5
- Game Total: Clear majority expects offensive fireworks with 74% of the handle on over 45.5 points
My under bet is a fade-the-public play based on current money distribution.
Chargers vs Patriots Wild Card Injury Reports
Both teams face significant injury concerns heading into their playoff opener, with several key skill-position players carrying questionable designations that could dramatically impact the game.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
