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Chiefs vs Broncos Week 7 Thursday Night Football Props: A Shady Proposition

Kansas City Chiefs
LeSean McCoy and the Chiefs travel to Denver to face the Broncos on Thursday Night Football. Photo from @ChiefsReporter. (Twitter.)
  • Week 7 kicks off with Chiefs and Broncos on Thursday Night Football
  • Our TNF props were 3-0 last week for +3.38 units (+0.48 units for the season)
  • LeSean McCoy’s increased role is not being recognized in his rushing prop

Fresh off our second perfect Thursday Night Football prop card in the last three weeks, we turn our attention to the AFC West for the Chiefs’ tilt with the Broncos.

Kansas City is coming in off back-to-back losses, and with their franchise QB nursing an ankle injury, now would be a good time to start establishing the run.

Prop #1: LeSean McCoy Over/Under 40.5 Rushing Yards

Rushing Yards Odds
Over 40.5 -113
Under 40.5 -113

*All odds taken 10/16/19

LeSean McCoy may be past his prime, but he’s still a much more effective running back than Damien Williams. McCoy is averaging nearly three times as many yards per carry, and is finally starting to earn more playing time as a result.

He out touched him 10-2 in Week 6 and played 50% of the snaps compared to just 38% for Williams. Now he gets to face a Broncos defense that is much tougher against the pass than the run, and who is only three weeks removed from allowing 269 rushing yards to the Jaguars.

McCoy is expected to be the starter Thursday and has rushed for at least 44 yards in all three of his starts this season. With the Chiefs pass game hurting, he should have plenty of opportunity to post a big game.
Pick: McCoy Over 40.5 rushing yards (-113)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

Prop #2: Tyreek Hills Over/Under 74.5 Receiving Yards

Receiving Yards Odds
Over 74.5 -113
Under 74.5 -113

Speaking of KC’s passing game, Tyreek Hill returned from injury in Week 6 and posted lofty totals despite playing only 50% of the offensive snaps. Now he has to travel to Denver, on a short week, and matchup against one of the NFL’s top cover corners.

Hill has never topped 54 yards in his career at Mile High, and it’s hard to imagine his playing time increasing on such short rest.

It’s always scary fading a player with his such big play ability, but this is a very tough spot for him, and I’m banking on a decrease in efficiency.
Pick: Hill Under 74.5 receiving yards (-113)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

Prop #3: Royce Freeman Over/Under 50.5 Rushing Yards

Rushing Yards Odds
Over 50.5 -113
Under 50.5 -113

Over the last two weeks the Colts and Texans have given the rest of the NFL the blueprint on how to slow down the Chiefs. Run the ball down their throats and keep Mahomes off the field. The Broncos have the NFL’s 10th highest rushing rate, and Royce Freeman has racked up double digit carries in five of six games this season.

He’s played more snaps than teammate Phillip Lindsay in three straight weeks, and KC is allowing a 5.2 yards per carry and the third most rushing yards per game (161.8). This is one of the best spots he’ll see all year.
Pick: Freeman Over 50.5 rushing yards (-113)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

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