KC Chiefs vs JAX Jaguars Picks & Closing Lines

• The Kansas City Chiefs are 3.5-point road favorites vs the Jacksonville Jaguars on MNF
• Jacksonville is coming off an impressive road win over San Francisco
• Keep reading for my Chiefs vs Jaguars picks and predictions, plus closing odds

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We don’t really know if the Kansas City Chiefs (2-2, 2-2-0 ATS) are back to their usual selves, but a trip to Jacksonville against the upstart Jaguars (3-1, 3-1-0 ATS) should offer another indication.

The books seem to think KC’s on the right path, placing them as betting favorites in the NFL odds, even with Jacksonville at home coming off a big road win against previously unbeaten San Francisco.

Kickoff is set for 8:15pm ET from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Closing Lines

At the time of publication, the Chiefs were -190 favorites (or shorter) with the Jaguars listed as long as +170. The spread was sitting at KC -3.5. The game total was a uniform 45.5 O/U across the board, with most books offering -110 odds each way.

*The interactive table above will automatically update as the NFL betting odds move over the course of the day.

Chiefs vs Jaguars Line Movement

The Chiefs were just 2.5-point chalk in the opening Week 5 odds and have been bet up to -3.5 (as high as -4.0 at some books during the last few days).

Early in the week, you could have had the Chiefs as short as -159 on the moneyline, but that’s moved an average of about -200 across online sportsbooks, while the Jags have mostly been on the rise, settling in at +160.

Who covers the spread on Monday Night Football? 🤔

*odds via @BetMGM pic.twitter.com/NemQewwIHg

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) October 6, 2025

Although, search a little and you can find them as high as +185, for anyone interested in the best odds for an upset.

The total has hovered in between 44 and 46 points, settling at 45.5 points in the waning moments before kickoff. Both teams cashed the over last week.

The NFL public betting percentages are picking a Chiefs outright win, with 91% of the bets and a whopping 96% of the money on the KC moneyline.

As for the spread, 65% of the bets are on the Chiefs covering at 3.5, but only 49% of the money is going there. While only garnering 35% of the bets, the Jags to cover is getting 51% of the money.

The public believes these teams will cash the Over, with 64% of the bets and 63% of the money calling for the score to top 45.5 points.

KC vs JAX Betting Trends

The Chiefs have won each of their last eight games against the Jaguars. Patrick Mahomes is 4-0-0 against the spread against the Jaguars in the regular season.

KC is 4-1-0 ATS in their last five games as betting favorites.

The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS as home underdogs since the start of last season. However, they have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four home games following a win.

Five of the Jaguars’ last six home games have gone Under the total.

Chiefs vs Jaguars Picks & Prediction

• Jaguars +3.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

The schedule lightened up just enough for the Chiefs to get back to 2-2, with wins over the hapless Giants and an injury-riddled Ravens team that isn’t playing up to their standard.

Jacksonville settles in somewhere between Los Angeles and Philadelphia, two teams that handled the Chiefs early in the year.

The Jaguars have forced 13 turnovers this season, most in the NFL. 9 interceptions and 4 fumbles. Here are the interceptions. They have come off deflections or the QB forcing into spots of their zone coverage where they don’t see the defender. #Chiefs #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/lt58PeDEU9

— Nick Jacobs (@Jacobs71) October 2, 2025

Their defense is Top-4 in scoring, surrendering just 18 points per game, and third against the run, allowing just 82.8 yards a contest. They also lead the league in takeaways.

Jacksonville’s pass defense is an issue, ranking Bottom 10 and allowing 233.5 yards per game.

How they hold up against Mahomes is likely the key result here.

Xavier Worthy opens up the playbook, and his return last week had KC looking potent and explosive on offense, rather than a team grinding out possession after possession with checkdowns and third-down Mahomes runs.

Xavier Worthy putting Chidobe Awuzie on skates. pic.twitter.com/oZ6nVmxyRx

— Adam Best (@Arrowhead_Adam) September 29, 2025

If Jacksonville can’t get a pass rush home – they’re currently bottom-six on sacks with just seven on the year – Mahomes might just be able to pick them apart.

But the other side to this is Jacksonville’s offense, which ranks right next to KC in points per game. They love to establish the run game (4^th in rush yards) and don’t leaving Trevor Lawrence on an island to do it on his own in the passing game.

I think the Chiefs win, but the Jags give them all they can handle on the road Monday Night.

Looking for other KC vs JAX picks to tail? Check out:

• Sascha Paruk’s Chiefs vs Jaguars Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bets
• John Hyslop’s Chiefs vs Jaguars Same-Game Parlay