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Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s NFL OROY Odds Take a Massive Hit After Chiefs Sign Le’Veon Bell

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Mar 9, 2021 · 1:17 PM PST

Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire running with the football during a game.
Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25) during an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints, Sunday, Dec. 20, 2020, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Tyler Kaufman)
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s NFL OROY odds have been lengthened to +1200 following the Le’Veon Bell signing
  • CEH hasn’t scored since Week 1 and was losing 3rd down and two-minute drill work to Darrel Williams
  • Read below for analysis on whether or not CEH is now a buy in the OROY futures market

Clyde Edwards-Helaire was already trending down in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year futures market and the signing of Le’Veon Bell certainly won’t help improve his prospects.

Bell likely won’t be eligible to play until Week 7, so CEH will have one finally opportunity on Monday night to solidify his role in the KC offense.

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Player Odds to Win
Justin Herbert +125
Joe Burrow +210
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +1200
Jonathan Taylor +1200
Ceedee Lamb +1500

Odds taken Oct. 16th at FanDuel.

CEH’s NFL OROY odds have been lengthened from +650 to +1200 since the last update, but it would be foolish to blame the big move entirely on Bell’s singing.

Performance, Not Usage is Helaire’s Biggest Problem

Following his NFL debut, everybody was rushing to anoint CEH the Offensive Rookie of the Year. His 138-yard, one touchdown performance vaulted him to the top of the odds board, with a +175 price tag to win the award.

A middling Week 2 game saw number one pick Joe Burrow overtake him, and then a disappointing effort in Week 5 combined with Justin Herbert’s coming out party on Monday Night Football, pushed CEH to third place status.

The former LSU star has been given every opportunity to shine in the NFL’s most dangerous offense, but he simply hasn’t performed. CEH earned at least 16 touches in Weeks 2 through 4, and even though he had just 13 interactions in Week 5, he still saw 10 carries and eight targets.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s Last 4 Games

Opp Rush Att Rush Yds Rec Tgts  Receiving Yds
LV 10 40 3 8 40
NE 16 64 3 3 27
BAL 20 64 5 6 70
LAC 10 38 6 8 32

He hasn’t averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry since Week 1, and he’s only caught 62.9% of his targets despite having the league’s best QB throwing to him. It’s no wonder the Chiefs went looking for help, the question is did they sign the right guy?

How Much Does Le’Veon Have Left?

In 17 games with the New York Jets, Bell averaged 3.26 yards per carry. Yes, New York’s offensive line is a mess, but that didn’t stop less talented players like Frank Gore, Ty Montgomery, Bilal Powell and La’Michal Perine from averaging at least that many yards per attempt, if not more.

Even in his last season with Pittsburgh, Bell still managed just 4.0 yards per carry, and he hasn’t broken off a longer run that 27 yards since 2016.

This moves wreaks of a similar transaction KC made last year, when they brought in LeSean McCoy. The 32-year-old started the season getting double-digit touches per game, but by the end of the year he couldn’t even crack the playoff roster.

You don’t spend a first round draft pick on a running back, like the Chiefs did with CEH, if you’re not going to use him in a feature role.

Unless Bell magically finds the fountain of youth, he’ll likely assume the role that Darrel Williams was occupying. That means plenty of work on 3rd downs and in the two-minute drill, but the heavy lifting will still be done by CEH.

Stay Clear of CEH Futures

Bell’s arrival may have impacted CEH futures, but the phenomenal play of the rookie QB’s has had a much great impact. The stellar first few weeks by Burrow and Herbert are the real reason why CEH is now so far behind, as they’ve clearly established themselves as the front runners.

Even though Herbert is the favorite, he may actually be undervalued. Four of LA’s next five opponents boast defenses that rank 24th or worse by DVOA, while Cincinnati’s next four game are versus teams with winning records that feature top-15 ranked defensive units. This time next month, Herbert at plus money will be a thing of the past, and you’ll have to pay a steep price to bet him to win OROY.

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