NFL Coach of the Year Odds – Vrabel Has WORST Odds on the Board

• After winning the 2025 NFL Coach of the Year Award, Mike Vrabel has the longest odds on the board to repeat
• The last back-to-back winner was Joe Gibbs in 1982 and 1983
• See the complete NFL Coach of the Year odds below, plus my favorite pick to win the award

It’s only been two weeks, but if you’re anything like me, then you’re missing the NFL right now in a bad way. The good news is that there are plenty of futures markets we can bet into. The bad news is that it will be another six and a half months before a meaningful NFL game is played.

Today we’ll look at the NFL Coach of the Year odds, where one man’s name sticks out like a sore thumb. Mike Vrabel, the reigning winner of the award, is listed at the absolute bottom of the board.

NFL Coach of the Year Odds

Vrabel opened with these longest NFL Coach of the Year odds at +10000. That’s tied with Broncos head coach Sean Payton, and just below Mike Macdonald, Nick Sirianni, and Andy Reid, the last three head coaches to win a Super Bowl.

New Giants head coach John Harbaugh boasts the shortest price to win the award at +500, and he’s followed by six other coaches who will either be the man in charge for the first time, or who will be coaching a new team.

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Why Vrabel’s Odds Are Justified

The market is down on Vrabel in this category for a few reasons. For starters, the likelihood of repeating is nearly non-existent. It’s happened only once in the history of the award, and that was back in 1982 and 1983 when Joe Gibbs accomplished the feat.

Last season was the perfect storm for the Patriots. They played not only the easiest schedule of anyone in the NFL, but one of the softest schedules in the last quarter century. They faced a backup quarterback or a QB that was ultimately benched in eight of 17 regular season games, and only two of their opponents finished with an above .500 record.

Luck followed them all the way through the AFC side of the playoff bracket, as they faced two teams with decimated offensive lines (Chargers and Texans) and another backup QB (Jarred Stitham) in the Conference Championship Game. They were exposed in the Super Bowl by Seattle, and will start next season outside the top-eight favorites in the Super Bowl odds.

They’ll go from the easiest schedule in 2025 to the one of the five hardest in 2026, and despite Drake Maye’s run to NFL MVP odds finalist, the offense has some significant holes it needs to shore up if they want to return to the postseason.

New England massively overachieved this season, and while a 10-game improvement over 2024 is impressive, the entire Patriots organization is going to be smacked in the face by regression in 2026, Vrabel included.

Don’t Sleep on Sean McVay

I wouldn’t bet on Vrabel to repeat with my worst enemy’s money, but there is one longshot candidate that I think deserves your attention. That’s the Rams Sean McVay, widely considered the best coach in football.

Despite the billing, McVay has won Coach of the Year only once back in 2017. Nevertheless, his team will again be among the top-three preseason favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy, and the nucleus of the Rams is returning for another run at the title.

McVay’s offense led the NFL in scoring, yards per game, success rate and EPA per play, and boasted the MVP Matthew Stafford, along with arguably the game’s best receiver in Puka Nacua. Defensively, they were top-10 across every metric, and will get a small break in their strength of schedule in ’26 thanks to their second place NFC West finish in 2025.

2025 LA Rams Offense Ranks

The Rams will face the 13th hardest schedule in 2026, and if they can rack up another 13+ wins, and an NFC title in the league’s toughest division, McVay will most definitely be back in the Coach of the Year conversation where he belongs.

Resist the urge to target one of these newcomers on a buzzworthy team like Harbaugh, Kevin Stefanski or Klint Kubiak. McVay can coach circles around these guys, and is a screaming value in this market at +4000.