Commanders vs Patriots Odds, Picks & Probable Starters

• The New England Patriots are big favorites over the Washington Commanders in Friday night’s preseason action
• The Pats are expected to give their first-string players plenty of snaps tonight, while the Commanders are resting Jayden Daniels and others
• See the Commanders vs Patriots picks, odds, and probable starters on August 9th

The Washington Commanders (5-8 SU in preseason since 2021) and New England Patriots (6-6 SU in preseason since 2021) kick off their preseason slates on Friday night in Foxborough (7:30 pm ET). The Patriots opened as modest 2.5-point home favorites, but that line has ballooned all the way to 6.5 as of Friday afternoon.

The odds movement is based entirely on personnel: New England is expected to give its first-team offense and defense a decent amount of snaps tonight, while the Commanders are opting to rest the vast majority of their starters.

Washington Commanders vs New England Patriots Picks:

• Commanders +7.0 (-115) at DraftKings
• Under 36.5 (+100) at DraftKings

One of the reasons this line has moved so drastically over the last few days is an injury to Washington backup QB Marcus Mariota. While his lower-leg strain isn’t serious, the Oregon product is unlikely to see any game action tonight.

That will leave the Commanders with third-string journeyman Josh Johnson and fourth-string undrafted rookie Sam Hartman.

But let’s all remember that, even with the Patriots playing their starters, that means a whole lot of Drake Maye and Josh Dobbs. Maye might make a leap as a sophomore, but he piloted the Pats to a 3-9 record as a starter last year with a subpar 88.1 passer rating. Dobbs, who has 17 career TD passes and 15 career INTs, is a considerable step down.

And neither QB is likely to have the services of off-season acquisition Stefon Diggs, who immediately shot to the top of New England’s abysmal WR depth chart when he was signed. Diggs is still recovering from a knee injury and it would be wildly dangerous to play the 31-year-old for more than a series if at all.

The Patriots had, by all measures, a strong draft class in 2025 that has positioned them well for the future. They were fourth-worst in the entire NFL in point differential last year, though (-128). They have a massive hill to climb to get back to respectability.

The Commanders, meanwhile, had a +94 point differential and are poised for another deep playoff run in 2025-26. They will be a shadow of themselves on Friday night, but even Washington’s shadow should prevent Maye and the Patriots from running away.

The over/under for this game opened at 34.5 and has been bet up two full points to 36.5. The first four NFL preseason games all hit at least 40 points (and all cashed for over bettors) but I’m not buying into that as a trend just yet. We’re apt to see some bad QB play tonight and I see the defenses having the advantage on the whole.

WSH Commanders vs NE Patriots Odds

The Commanders/Patriots point spread has moved as high as New England -7.0 at DraftKings, making it the best option for Washington ATS bettors. On the moneyline, Commanders backers can get +250 at either Caesars or bet365. The best moneyline price on the Patriots is -278 at BetMGM.

The total is 36.5 across the board, but the under is currently at plus-money (+105) at DraftKings. The best over price is -110 at bet365 or BetMGM.

Bookmark SBD’s NFL public betting page to see the latest lines and money splits.

Sign Up for SBD’s Newsletter Now

Did you want the latest sports betting news, analysis, picks, betting trends, and relevant data straight to your inbox? If so, you’ll want to subscribe to SBD’s newsletter now!