Comparing Draft Position Over/Unders for Top 2019 NFL Draft Prospects

• The NFL draft starts Thursday, April 25th, in Nashville, TN
• Sportsbooks have posted odds on draft position for the top prospects
• Find the best value on the draft O/Us for Kyler Murray, Nick Bosa, Dwayne Haskins, and more

After months of mock drafts, interviews, combines and rumors, the NFL draft is finally, mercifically here … almost.

Unless they make a trade, the Arizona Cardinals will make the first pick on Thursday night (8:00 PM ET, Apr. 25th).

Anyone looking for a reason to be invested in every single pick has been done a favor. The sportsbooks have released props on where the top prospects will be selected.

2019 NFL Draft Player Props

*odds taken on 4/24

There’s a lot to digest here, but that’s good news.  The more players and draft positions that the books make available, the easier it is to find ones with value worth laying money on.

By my analysis, there are four picks listed above that you should take a serious look at.

1. Baker
2. Kyler

Ranking the QB classes from the 2018 and 2019 drafts ⬇️

(via @nflnetwork) pic.twitter.com/TiJA3f3FQJ

— NFL (@NFL) April 24, 2019

Will Kyler Murray Go #1?

For the second straight year, a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback from the Oklahoma Sooners will be the first selection in the draft.

All signs point to the Arizona Cardinals keeping the pick and taking Kyler Murray to replace Josh Rosen as the team’s starter. Murray passed for 4,361 yards and 42 touchdowns last year before adding 892 rushing and 11 more touchdowns. He is an absolute dynamo and, while there may be debates about his size, there shouldn’t be any about his talent or ability to reboot a franchise.

JUST IN: Nike announces top endorsers in NFL Draft Class

Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
Dwayne Haskins, OSU*
Parris Campbell, OSU
Daniel Jones, Duke
Devin White, LSU
Josh Jacobs, Bama
Drew Lock, Missouri
Miles Sanders, Penn St.
Hunter Renfroe, Clemson
Bryce Love, Stanford

*Jordan Brand

— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) April 24, 2019

Even if there’s a shock and the Cardinals decide not to take Murray, he could still be a top-two pick. A team like the Oakland Raiders, New York Giants, or Miami Dolphins could trade up to draft Murray first or second overall.

The -700 moneyline is expensive, but this is more an investment than it is a wage. Bite the bullet and cash in on the NFL’s next big thing.

PICK: KYLER MURRAY UNDER 2.5 (-700)

Nick Bosa Would Be a Steal at #2

Working on the assumption Murray goes first, the San Francisco 49ers are in prime position to get the best pass rusher out of college in recent memory with Nick Bosa at #2.

The Ohio State product is fully healed from an injury that cut short his final NCAA season and is widely regarded as a can’t-miss prospect.

Former #49ers head coach @SteveMariucci sends Nick Bosa to San Francisco in NFL Network’s mock draft.
(?: @nflnetwork) pic.twitter.com/cKjBLzBI0V

— Rob Lowder (@Rob_Lowder) April 22, 2019

The only thing keeping Bosa from going number one has been the surprising rise of Murray throughout the draft process. Unlike Murray, however, there aren’t many debates about how much success Joey Bosa’s little brother will have at the next level.

He recorded 17.5 sacks in college and should post many, many more for the 49ers over the next several years.

PICK: NICK BOSA UNDER 2.5 (-300)

Will the Giants Draft Dwayne Haskins?

Bosa’s college teammate Dwayne Haskins is next on my list of value bets. I have been trumpeting the case for betting on Haskins for a while now and I’m not backing off.

I believe he could be the best QB in this class when all is said and done, and he would be a perfect fit for the New York Giants.

The only real knock on Haskins is that he only played one season of college football. Heading to New York would give him a year to grow under mentor/lame duck Eli Manning.

Dwayne Haskins rewrote the Ohio State record book.

Now his NFL journey begins. (?@CourtyardHotels) pic.twitter.com/dnYsjJNMBe

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) April 23, 2019

Coming out of college one year after Baker Mayfield helps Haskins, not because he’s athletic, but because he’s incredibly accurate with the football.  He threw for 4,831 yards last year with 50 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions.

Accuracy plays at the next level and, whether it’s the Giants or another team moving up to take him, Haskins will be off the board before the 11th pick.

PICK: DWAYNE HASKINS UNDER 10.5 (-115)

Metcalf Could Wait on Draft Night

I’ve been pretty positive to this point, but here’s where things take a turn.

Ole Miss WR D.K. Metcalf could end up sitting for quite a while on Thursday night and he might not be taken at all in the 1st round.

The Buffalo Bills are a natural landing spot, but they pick too early to justify selecting him with the 9th pick.  GMs around the league seem to be following a similar formula these days and it’s one proffered by Colin Cowherd all the time: get a quarterback, protect the quarterback, and get to the opposing team’s quarterback.

None of those things are helped by reaching on workout-stud Metcalf in this draft.

Faster than Julio Jones.
Jumps higher than OBJ.

There is only one @dkmetcalf14 ?

(via @FirstTake) pic.twitter.com/qpUsJqz25b

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) April 17, 2019

Exceptions have been made in years past but that would require a generational talent to be available and I’m just not sure Metcalf fits that description.  He’s full of self confidence, which is great, and he could definitely end up being a contributing piece at the next level.

I just don’t expect to hear his name before the 19th pick.

PICK: DK METCALF OVER 18.5 (-170)