- We’re down to just two games to weed through for player props this weekend as the NFL has reached the Conference Championships
- Our props went 3-6 last weekend (-2.47 units)
- See all the NFL Conference Championship player props below as well as our best bets
We took a beating in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Thanks to JK Dobbins dropping a pass in the red zone, the Saints offense struggling, Chris Godwin not getting the looks I expected, and Kareem Hunt getting the goal line touchdown over Nick Chubb, we went just 3-6 on our player props and lost 2.47 units. That record would have been even worse if Lamar Jackson didn’t leave the game early as well.
I’m not bitter, though …
That’s enough dwelling on the lost units. We’re looking ahead to the AFC and NFC Championship games this Sunday, January 24. With just two games on the schedule, our player prop offerings continue to dwindle. That doesn’t mean there isn’t value, though.
First, you’ll find all the passing, rushing, and receiving props available for the Conference Championships, followed by my favorite bets, and then you’ll see the touchdown props (first touchdown and anytime touchdown) in the second half of this post, again followed by my picks.
NFL Player Props for Conference Championships
|Quarterback||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TDs|
|Tom Brady (TB)||24.5 (Ov -125 | Un +101)||289.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||2.5 (Ov +165 | Un -210)|
|Aaron Rodgers (GB)||24.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||279.5 (Ov -124 | Un +100)||2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -182)|
|Josh Allen (BUF)||26.5 (Ov +110 | Un -137)||305.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -182)|
|Patrick Mahomes (KC)||26.5 (Ov -125 | Un +101)||310.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||2.5 (Ov +125 | Un -157)|
|Player||Rush Attempts||Rush Yards||Rushing + Receiving Yards|
|Leonard Fournette (TB)||10.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)||42.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||69.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Ronald Jones (TB)||N/A||35.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Aaron Jones (GB)||14.5 (Ov -125 | Un +100)||59.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||87.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Jamaal Williams (GB)||N/A||19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -106)||30.5 (Ov -117 | Un -105)|
|Aaron Rodgers (GB)||N/A||10.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118)||N/A|
|Devin Singletary (BUF)||9.5 (Ov -126 | Un -102)||39.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||63.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Josh Allen (BUF)||N/A||33.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Player||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Mike Evans (TB)||4.5 (Ov -124 | Un +100)||63.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||23.5 (Ov -118 | Un -108)|
|Chris Godwin (TB)||5.5 (Ov +118 | Un -148)||63.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106)||22.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Rob Gronkowski (TB)||2.5 (Ov -125 | Un +100)||28.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||15.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Cameron Brate (TB)||2.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)||27.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)||15.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)|
|Davante Adams (GB)||6.5 (Ov -134 | Un +108)||87.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||24.5 (Ov -118 | Un -108)|
|Allen Lazard (GB)||3.5 (Ov +115 | Un -143)||45.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||18.5 (Ov -126 | Un -102)|
|Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB)||2.5 (Ov +156 | Un -200)||29.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||16.5 (Ov -134 | Un +106)|
|Robert Tonyan (GB)||3.5 (Ov +117 | Un -148)||34.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||16.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Aaron Jones (GB)||3.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118)||23.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||12.5 (Ov -104 | Un -122)|
|Stefon Diggs (BUF)||7.5 (Ov +108 | Un -134)||93.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||26.5 (Ov -126 | Un -102)|
|Cole Beasley (BUF)||4.5 (Ov +112 | Un -142)||48.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||19.5 (Ov -126 | Un -102)|
|Devin Singletary (BUF)||2.5 (Ov -182 | Un +145)||19.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||11.5 (Ov +100 | Un -125)|
|John Brown (BUF)||4.5 (Ov +115 | Un -143)||50.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||21.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)|
|Dawson Knox (BUF)||2.5 (Ov +108 | Un -136)||23.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||13.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Tyreek Hill (KC)||5.5 (Ov -134 | Un +105)||77.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||26.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Travis Kelce (KC)||7.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118)||94.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106)||25.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
Odds as of January 22
Aaron Rodgers Picks Apart Buccaneers Defense
The Tampa Bay defense is the best in the league against the run, allowing just 80.5 yards per game on the ground and 3.6 yards per carry during the regular season. In their two playoff games so far, they’ve allowed 86 and 104 rushing yards per game, an average of 95 per.
The Packers possess the league’s eighth-best rushing attack and average 4.8 yards per rush, good for seventh in the NFL. However, I don’t foresee Matt LaFleur scheming to attack the strength of this Bucs defense. When these two teams met back in Week 6, Tampa Bay held Aaron Jones to just 15 yards on ten carries.
HOLY AARON RODGERS 😱
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 16, 2021
This game is going to be placed in Aaron Rodgers’ hands. LaFleur will get the ball out of Rodgers’ hands quickly, taking advantage of Davante Adams’ route-running underneath. Even if Green Bay takes a lead in this game, I foresee them using quick passes and screens as their running game.
Rodgers has only surpassed this total (279.5) once in his last four games. But the three misses were games that were over early. Tom Brady will keep the Bucs competitive in this one.
Pick: Aaron Rodgers over 279.5 passing yards (-124) – 1 unit
Ronald Jones Takes Advantage of His Carries
Since the playoffs started, Leonard Fournette has been the guy in the Tampa Bay backfield. The former Jaguar has seen 85% and 68% of the Bucs’ offensive snaps in the last two games. But he wasn’t very efficient with those carries last week against the Saints.
Fournette totaled 63 yards on 17 carries, averaging 3.71 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Ronald Jones’ snap count has plummeted, only seeing 29% of the offensive snaps last week after missing the Wild Card Weekend game against Washington. Jones seems to touch the ball when he’s in the game, though.
In his 21 snaps against the Saints, Jones got 13 carries, plus one target, that he turned into 62 rushing yards, averaging 4.77 yards per carry.
In a game against a Packers run defense that allowed 4.5 yards per carry (21st) in the regular season, and just allowed 5.0 yards per carry to Cam Akers last weekend, I like Tampa Bay to do everything they can to get their ground game going early.
When these two met in Week 6, Jones rushed for 113 yards on 23 carries. I don’t foresee him matching either of those totals, but 35.5 is far too low for a running back who’s averaging 71.5 rushing yards per game over his last four.
Pick: Ronald Jones over 35.5 rushing yards (-112) – 1 unit
Stefon Diggs Continues to Shine
When the Bills played the Chiefs back in Week 6, it was an ugly, rainy game that resulted in Stefon Diggs’ second-worst yardage output of the season. The star wide receiver turned his eight targets into six catches for just 46 yards.
But Diggs averaged 95.9 receiving yards per game in the regular season, and has notched 128 and 106 yards, respectively, in Buffalo’s two playoff games. When the stakes are high, Josh Allen is going to his guy.
The former Viking has averaged 122 receiving yards per game over his last six, and has surpassed 105 yards in all but one of them. That lone game was Buffalo’s Week 17 clash with the Dolphins, where Diggs only played 48% of the offensive snaps and still racked up 76 yards.
I see the Bills falling down early in this one and Allen forcing a lot of passes to Diggs. The 93.5 receiving total is high, but not nearly high enough.
Pick: Stefon Diggs over 93.5 yards (-112) – 1 unit
Odds to Score a Touchdown in Conference Championships
|Team||Odds to Score 1st TD||Odds to Score Any TD|
|Mike Evans (TB)||+1000||+140|
|Chris Godwin (TB)||+1200||+165|
|Leonard Fournette (TB)||+1300||+190|
|Ronald Jones (TB)||+1500||+220|
|Rob Gronkowski (TB)||+1500||+240|
|Antonio Brown (TB)||+1600||+250|
|Cameron Brate (TB)||+2500||+400|
|Tyler Johnson (TB)||+3500||+600|
|Tom Brady (TB)||+4000||+600|
|Scotty Miller (TB)||+3800||+650|
|Davante Adams (GB)||+525||-170|
|Aaron Jones (GB)||+850||+115|
|Robert Tonyan (GB)||+1100||+150|
|Allen Lazard (GB)||+1400||+230|
|Jamaal Williams (GB)||+2000||+285|
|Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB)||+2000||+285|
|Aaron Rodgers (GB)||+3300||+550|
|AJ Dillon (GB)||+5000||+850|
|Stefon Diggs (BUF)||+850||-106|
|Josh Allen (BUF)||+1100||+135|
|Devin Singletary (BUF)||+1500||+190|
|John Brown (BUF)||+1700||+230|
|Cole Beasley (BUF)||+2000||+275|
|Dawson Knox (BUF)||+2300||+340|
|Gabriel Davis (BUF)||+2800||+375|
|TJ Yeldon (BUF)||+4500||+650|
|Isaiah McKenzie (BUF)||+5000||+750|
|Travis Kelce (KC)||+700||-125|
|Tyreek Hill (KC)||+700||-120|
|Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)||+1100||+145|
|Darrel Williams (KC)||+1500||+210|
|Mecole Hardman (KC)||+1500||+230|
|Patrick Mahomes (KC)||+2200||+300|
|Sammy Watkins (KC)||+2200||+325|
|Le’Veon Bell (KC)||+2200||+325|
|Demarcus Robinson (KC)||+2200||+325|
|Byron Pringle (KC)||+3300||+500|
|Chad Henne (KC)||+3300||+500|
Picks to Score a Touchdown in Conference Championships
These are pretty chalky, but I’m confident all these teams will be looking to their stars in the biggest moments this Sunday. Here’s my best bets:
- Travis Kelce anytime touchdown (-125): The Chiefs tight end has caught a touchdown five straight and has scored in 11 of 16 games thus far. He caught two touchdowns against the Bills back in Week 6, and is a steal at these odds to score on Sunday. (1 unit)
- Stefon Diggs anytime touchdown (-106): We already discussed Diggs’ dominance lately, but didn’t touch on the fact that he’s scored a touchdown in three of his last four, totaling five in that span. I like the Bills to be trailing early and might have some extended garbage time. (1 unit)
- Aaron Jones anytime touchdown (+115): Jones has scored at least one touchdown in each of his three career playoff games, totaling five in those games. I don’t foresee Jones doing much outside of the red zone, but I do like him to get some goal line touches during some of Green Bay’s trips. (0.5 units)
- Mike Evans anytime touchdown (+140): Just like Jones above, I don’t like Evans to rack up a ton of yardage in this game, or really be much of a factor outside of the red zone. But he’s the go-to target for Tom Brady in the red zone, seeing the second-most targets inside the ten-yard-line during the regular season (14). All nine of his receptions from inside the ten have been touchdowns. (0.5 units)
Let's have fun and keep it civil.