Cousins Doesn’t Turn Vikings into Super Bowl 53 Favorites

• How did the Vikings’ odds to win Super Bowl 53 change after signing Kirk Cousins?
• Receive a roundup of all the notable NFL free agent signings
• Which teams have helped/hurt themselves the most during NFL free agency?

Vegas has spoken: “Kirk Cousins is not elite!”

Ok … so maybe they didn’t explicitly say that. But they have certainly alluded to it. Prior to signing Kirk Cousins in free agency, the Minnesota Vikings found themselves trailing both the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers for shortest odds to win Super Bowl 53 in the NFC. And now with Cousins, the Vikings remain in the same position.

Sure, their odds to win Super Bowl 53 have shortened a little bit – meaning their implied probability has gone up a bit. But we’re talking about the team who possessed the league’s top-ranked defense in both points and yards allowed last season. They also have one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. And they will welcome back explosive play-maker Dalvin Cook, who tore his ACL in Week 4 after bursting onto the scene as a rookie, averaging 5.2 yards per touch.

This is a team who went 13-3 last season with a 29-year-old QB whose career passer rating prior to 2017 (78.4) rivaled that of Brock Osweiler (76.5). If this journeyman could lead the Vikings to the NFC Championship, I think it’s reasonable to assume that a pivot who’s apparently worth more per season than any other player in the league could take them further. But Vegas doesn’t think so.

Minnesota’s average odds to win Super Bowl 53 did get slightly shorter, going from +1400 on February 22nd to +1200 now. But, as mentioned, they still trail the Eagles (average +860) and Packers (average +1100) in the NFC.

In the AFC, I’m steering clear of the Patriots this year. For all the pieces they have lost this offseason – Dion Lewis, Danny Amendola, Nate Solder, Malcolm Butler etc. – their +500 odds offer almost zero value. Every empire falls, and this will be the Patriots year to fall.

If I knew the Jaguars were entering 2018 with anyone at quarterback other than Blake Bortles, I’d be all over their +2200 odds to win Super Bowl 53. DJ Hayden may not be able to replicate the production Jacksonville received from Aaron Colvin playing in the slot last year, but their defense has some wiggle room. I am a big fan of the Jaguars getting Andrew Norwell in free agency, though. Leonard Fournette and the ground game will certainly benefit.

If you’re looking for more of a darkhorse, I’d pick the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. Andy Reid has the aggressive, big-armed quarterback he loves under center this year, along with another explosive receiver in Sammy Watkins. The loss of Marcus Peters certainly hurts, but the additions of Kendall Fuller and  Anthony Hitchens will help patch up a defense that ranked 28th in yards allowed last year.

As it currently stands, the Chargers roster is going to look very similar to 2017. Considering they were 9-7 and missed the playoffs, I can see why that may sound like a bad thing. But here’s why it’s not: (1) their third-ranked scoring defense has a lot of young pieces that are only getting better (see Joey Bosa and Denzel Perryman) and (2) Philip Rivers already has plenty of weapons on offense – they were fourth in total offense last season. The Chargers only need to get out of their own way and stop finding ways to lose games.

Of the three NFC teams I featured, there are two I’d be looking to bet and one I’d stay as far away from as possible. The Los Angeles Rams exploded onto the scene last year under first-year head coach Sean McVay, scoring more points than anyone else in the league. The NFC West champs did lose Sammy Watkins, Trumaine Johnson, Robert Quinn, and Alec Ogletree this offseason, but acquired Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, who will immediately form one of the best cornerback duos in the league.

With a running game and an above-average defense … [Drew] Brees and Sean Payton are just too dangerous.

The New Orleans Saints are the other team I’d be looking to bet in the NFC right now. Had the Minneapolis Miracle not happened, I believe Drew Brees would have marched his Saints into Philadelphia and come out victorious. With a running game and an above-average defense, who just got a massive boost from the acquisition of Patrick Robinson, Brees and Sean Payton are just too dangerous.

This leaves the San Francisco 49ers, who I would not touch right now. The Jimmy Garoppolo story is a lot of fun, and what he did to the Jaguars defense in Week 16 was truly remarkable. But the 49ers still have way too many holes, specifically on the defensive side of the ball, to go from a 6-10 team to a Super Bowl champion.

To ensure you’re up to date with the NFL’s Free Agent Frenzy, here’s all the notable movement.

Notable NFL Free Agent Signings