Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction, Pick & Odds for Sunday Night Football

• We’ve locked in our Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers prediction for Sunday Night Football
• The latest DAL vs PIT odds favor the Steelers by 2.5 points at home
• Read below for Cowboys vs Steelers prediction, odds and ATS trends

The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) host the Dallas Cowboys (2-2) in a prime-time Sunday Night Football matchup on October 6, 2024. Kickoff is 8:20 pm et from Acrisure Stadium, with NBC carrying the broadcast.

The Steelers opened as 1-point home underdogs but the line has since moved to Pittsburgh being favored by 2.5 points. This line movement suggests that sharp bettors are backing the Steelers, even with Pittsburgh coming off a loss and Dallas a win in Week 4.

Here is a look at our Cowboys vs Steelers prediction, along with the betting odds for Sunday Night Football.

Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers Odds

The Steelers vs Cowboys odds show Mike Tomlin’s team as a 2.5-point favorite, meaning they need to win by three or more points to cover the spread. Pittsburgh has a 59.7% implied win probability based on the moneyline odds.

Odds as of October 5, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Unlock the BetMGM promo code to bet on Steelers-Cowboys.

Steelers Look to Bounce Back at Home

Pittsburgh is coming off their first loss of the season, a 27-24 defeat to Indianapolis in Week 4. However, this loss wasn’t overly concerning due to the Steelers’ tough scheduling and a two-turnover deficit. Pittsburgh continues to dominate on the ground, rushing for at least 114 yards in all four games this season.

The Steelers have truly been one of the early surprises of the 2024 season, led by the emergence of quarterback Justin Fields. The second-year signal caller nearly led a comeback against the Colts and has shown the ability to make plays with both his arm and legs.

"justin fields is the same player" alright. pic.twitter.com/m07P1K4ZOA

— CJ 🌞 (@chrisburgh) October 4, 2024

Fields boasts a 98 QB rating this season and threw for 312 yards last week, showcasing his development as a passer and future potential. The former Chicago Bear even climbed into the top-20 of the NFL MVP odds at certain sportsbooks.

The Steelers offense will look to take advantage of a banged-up Cowboys defense that will be missing two of its best players in Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. Pittsburgh’s rushing attack, led by Najee Harris, matches up well against a Dallas defense allowing 145 rushing yards per game, 27th in the NFL.

In terms of NFL ATS betting trends, the Steelers have covered the spread in three of their four games this season and are 2-0 ATS as home favorites.

Injuries Could Hamper Cowboys

Dallas pulled out a hard-fought 20-15 win over the division rival New York Giants in Week 4 to even their record at 2-2. However, the Cowboys enter this showdown with several key injuries on the defensive side of the ball.

In addition to being without Lawrence and Parsons, the Cowboys have struggled to generate a consistent rushing attack. Dallas ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing yards and faces an elite Steelers run defense allowing the third-fewest yards on the ground. The Cowboys have failed to surpass 80 rushing yards in their last three games.

The Dallas Cowboys run game (and ability to stop the run on defense) is among the worst in the NFL through four weeks.

Pretty grim projections for Sunday night in Pittsburgh.

(via NFL Pro) pic.twitter.com/oi30GDIcPs

— RJ Ochoa (@rjochoa) October 2, 2024

Quarterback Dak Prescott has put up solid numbers, ranking in the top six in passing yards and touchdowns. But he may need to shoulder even more of the load with the lack of a running game and injuries to his defense.

The Cowboys’ pass defense has also been vulnerable, surrendering 7.2 yards per pass attempt, while the Steelers average around seven yards through the air.

When it comes to the trends, Dallas has only covered the spread in one out of four games this season. With the public slightly favoring the Cowboys, we have an ideal “fade the public” situation if you wish to ride with Pitt.

Steelers vs Cowboys Prediction

The total opened at 42 points before ticking up to 44, but has since settled at 43.5 points as of Friday. Both of these offenses have struggled at times this season, with the Steelers ranking 22nd in passing yards and the Cowboys 32nd in rushing.

With two shaky offenses and the potential for inclement weather (55% chance of rain), I love the under on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers also have been an under machine lately, going below the total in three of four games this year.

In this battle between two of the NFL’s most storied franchises, I predict the Steelers will pull out a close victory at home on Sunday night. Pitt’s’ defense should be able to contain the one-dimensional Cowboys attack, while Fields and Harris will control the clock on offense.

SNF Picks:

• Steelers ML (-150 at Bet365)
• Under 44 Points (-110 at MGM)