- Dalvin Cook lost ground in the rushing-title race in Week 4
- Ezekiel Elliott’s odds moved from +250 to +500 after his own rough week
- McCaffrey moves up ranks following stellar Week 4 performance
Dalvin Cook is coming off his worst statistical performance of the season, but it wasn’t enough to sway sportsbooks away from keeping the Vikings running back as the favorite to win the NFL rushing crown in 2019.
Cook’s odds fell significantly from the opening of Week 4, when he was +220, but he’s still listed as the +333 favorite.
Is Cook good value to win the rushing title at that price?
2019 NFL Rushing Odds
|Player||Rushing Yards in 2019||Odds|
|Dalvin Cook (Vikings)||410 (2nd)||+333|
|Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys)||324 (7th)||+500|
|Christian McCaffrey (Panthers)||411 (1st)||+500|
|Nick Chubb (Browns)||398 (4th)||+700|
|Leonard Fournette (Jaguars)||404 (3rd)||+750|
|Marlon Mack (Colts)||338 (5th)||+1400|
|Mark Ingram (Ravens)||328 (6th)||+1800|
|Derrick Henry (Titans)||310 (8th)||+2000|
|Todd Gurley (Rams)||219 (20th)||+2800|
|Alvin Kamara (Saints)||280 (10th)||+2800|
*Odds taken on October 2.
In Week 4, Cook was shut down by the Chicago Bears’ stellar defense and was held to just 35 yards on 14 carries. It was the first time this season Cook was held under 110 yards in a game.
Cook’s poor performance on the ground also had an impact on the leaderboard as the Vikings star fell to second overall behind Christian McCaffrey of the Carolina Panthers.
Look For Cook To Bounce Back
Is this a cause for concern for those who already have money on Cook to win the rushing title?
The Vikings have a favorable matchups coming up against teams that struggle against the rush, including the New York Giants in Week 5. Cook should also have big games against the Eagles in Week 6 and Redskins in Week 8.
#Saints defense held RB Ezekiel Elliott to 1.9 yards per carry in Week 4…Speed & effort to the ball on the toss play here. Force/cut-off angles, DL pursuit, secondary run support. @NFLMatchup @MikeTriplett pic.twitter.com/k2iXM6V6Z1
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) October 2, 2019
Cook is still on pace to crush his career-high of 615 rushing yards, set a year ago. Already through four games, Cook has carried the ball 71 times for 410 yards heading into the fifth week of the regular season.
Zeke’s Odds Move To +500
Elliott’s odds also dropped from Week 4 to Week 5 after producing just 35 yards on 18 carries in a 12-10 loss to the Saints on Sunday. Elliott saw his odds to win the rushing crown in 2019 fall from +250 a week ago to +500 heading into Week 5.
Zeke sits seventh overall in rushing with 324 yards and has some work to do to catch the leaders.
The Cowboys also have a stretch of games where we may see Elliott break out for 100-plus rushing yards regularly. First, a game against the Packers in Week 5, followed by weak rush defenses such as the Jets and Giants.
Cashing In On McCaffrey?
While both Cook and Elliott had poor weeks on the field, it was the complete opposite for McCaffrey, who took the lead in NFL rushing yards with 411 — one more than Cook.
McCaffrey was a +900 outsider when Week 4 kicked off, but after posting 93 yards and one touchdown on 27 carries against the Texans, he moved up to +500 this week.
The third-year running back has been a machine from the start of the season, carrying the ball 86 times and averaging 102.8 rushing yards per game.
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) September 29, 2019
McCaffrey experienced an off-game in Week 2 when he finished with 37 yards on 16 carries in a loss to the Buccaneers. The following week, McCaffrey turned in his best performance of the season, rushing for 153 yards and a touchdown.
Best Of The Rest
Leonard Fournette made huge strides on the leaderboard after moving to third-overall in league rushing yards.
The Jaguars running back has rushed for 404 yards on 72 carries this season. His odds were as long as +2800 going into Week 4, but after rushing for 225 yards in Jacksonville’s win over Denver last week, his odds shortened to +750.
The race for the 2019 rushing title will come down to three players — Cook, McCaffrey and Elliott. However, keep a close watch on Fournette the rest of the way. With rookie QB Gardner Minshew now at the helm, they would be wise to lean on Fournette to ease the burden on the passing game.
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