NFL Divisional Round Player Props: Deep Analysis Into Stats, Matchups & Player Trends

A number of the league’s star players have advanced to the Divisional Round of the 2026 NFL Playoffs, including but not limited to Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Christian McCaffrey, Josh Allen, and Drake Maye, but so have some of the league’s best defenses. We watched the Patriots and Texans put forth great defensive efforts all season, and proved themselves again last week.

With only eight teams taking the field in the Divisional Round, it allows for sportsbooks to open NFL player props a little earlier than normal, and also allows me to take a deeper dive into each of the teams and players. This comprehensive NFL player prop betting guide for the Divisional Round dissects the data for all passing, rushing, and receiving yard props, analyzes the matchups, and surfaces up some notable player trends so you can bet Divisional Round props with confidence.

NFL Divisional Round Passing Props Analysis

Every quarterback who won in Wild Card Weekend threw for at least 250 yards. But we now throw two more of the top 12 pass defenses back into the field in the Divisional Round, as the Seahawks and Broncos are set to play their first games of the NFL Playoffs. Before you go and bet any passing props for this weekend, check out all the passing stats I have pulled for each player/team below.

Passing Props Cheat Sheet for Divisional Round

The table above is only considering regular season stats for the players and team defenses. These passing lines are likely to see some major fluctuation as the week goes on, so be sure to check our NFL passing yard props tool, which will show you the current lines across multiple sportsbooks and pull out the best odds for the bet you want to make, before placing your wagers.

Bo Nix faces the toughest test in the Divisional Round, taking on a Bills defense that finished the regular season ranked #1 against the pass. Buffalo only surrenders an average of 170.2 passing yards per game. This explains why Nix’s over/under for passing yards is 213.5, which is 17.7 yards less than his season average.

The same goes for Drake Maye, who faces what looks to be a dominant Texans defense. Houston allowed 205.1 passing yards per game in the regular season, which ranked 7th. Maye’s passing prop line is set at 222.5, which is 36 yards fewer than his regular season average.

Matthew Stafford has the highest over/under for passing yards among the eight quarterbacks playing this week, which is the same as we saw last week as well. However, his line is set at 265.5, which is actually 11.4 yards below his regular season average, in spite of playing the 22nd-ranked pass defense from the regular season.

Recent Passing Stats

Here’s a quick look at Wild Card passing stats for the players who are suiting up in the Divisional Round:

1. Caleb Williams: 361 passing yards
2. Matthew Stafford: 304
3. Josh Allen: 273
4. Drake Maye: 268
5. Brock Purdy: 262
6. C.J. Stroud: 250

Caleb Williams was way over his regular season average, eclipsing it by 129.1 yards. No QB who advanced through the Wild Card Round threw for fewer yards than their regular season average – Drake Maye exceeded his regular season average by just 9.5 yards, which was the fewest among the six QBs listed.

Although, it should be noted that C.J. Stroud’s 250 passing yards last week were the lowest among the QBs advancing, and without a doubt the ugliest – Stroud put forth one of the worst games I have ever seen him play.

And then here are the gross passing yards allowed by each team who advanced through the Wild Card Round:

1. Texans: 148 passing yards allowed
2. Patriots: 159 passing yards allowed
3. 49ers: 168 passing yards allowed
4. Bills: 207 passing yards allowed
5. Rams: 264 passing yards allowed
6. Bears: 323 passing yards allowed

The Texans were dominant against the pass, only giving up 148 gross passing yards to the Steelers last week. The Bears, however, gave up 323 passing yards to Jordan Love and the Packers.

QB Trends for Divisional Round

Here are a few notable quarterback trends for Divisional Round:

• Caleb Williams has exceeded 227.5 passing yards in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 279.0 yards per contest
• Josh Allen has exceeded 213.5 passing yards in 4 of his last 5 games against top 10 passing defenses, averaging 244.8 yards in those matchups
• C.J. Stroud has exceeded 212.5 passing yards in 5 of his last 6 road games, averaging 241.0 yards
• Brock Purdy has thrown an interception in 10 consecutive games against top 10 rushing defenses; his interception prop set at 0.5 (Over -170)

I think the most compelling trend from the list above is Josh Allen going over 213.5 passing yards in 4 of his last 5 vs top 10 passing defenses. While the chart above shows the Broncos as the 11th-ranked pass defense, that is just considering gross passing yards allowed, since that’s all we care about when betting passing props.

When you factor in yards lost on sacks (net passing yards), the Broncos rank 7th. Allen ends up performing so well against these defenses because of his ability to create extra opportunities with his legs – escaping the pocket and buying more time for his receivers.

I think the weakest one is C.J. Stroud’s road success. This one requires some extra context and a note that he’s not just playing any team on the road this week – he’s up against a very good Patriots pass defense.

Analysis of Divisional Round Rushing Props

We largely saw good run defenses advance through Wild Card Weekend, outside of the Bills and Bears, and we also get two of the best run defenses entering the field in the Divisional Round. Here’s what I believe is some of the most pertinent data to be aware of prior to betting any rushing props this weekend:

Rushing Props Cheat Sheet for Divisional Round

Once again, the rushing averages and defensive run stats are all from the regular season. I will summarize the Wild Card rushing performances below. Before you place any bets, make sure you check in with our NFL rushing yards props page, where you will find all the current over/unders as well as the best odds for each side of every player.

James Cook will face the toughest run defense still playing, as the Broncos allowed just 91.1 rushing yards per game in the regular season, the second-fewest. The Seahawks, who will face Christian McCaffrey this weekend, were slightly better than the Broncos when it comes to yards allowed per rushing attempt, though. Seattle allows just 3.74 yards per carry, the best in the NFL, while the Broncos allow 3.87, good for third-best.

RJ Harvey has the best matchup this weekend, which is reflected in his rushing yards over/under. Harvey’s rushing line is set at 54.5, which is 22.7 yards higher than his season average – though, his season average is a little deceiving since he was not the starter for most of the season. This is the result of playing a Bills defense that ranks 28th in rushing yards allowed per game and 30th in yards allowed per carry.

Recent Rushing Stats

Here’s how each RB playing this weekend performed in the Divisional Round, as well as how the teams who advanced held up against the run:

1. Woody Marks (Texans) – 112 yards, 19 att, 5.9 YPC
2. Kyren Williams (Rams) – 57 yards, 13 att, 4.4 YPC
3. D’Andre Swift (Bears) – 54 yards, 13 att, 4.2 YPC
4. Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) – 53 yards, 10 att, 5.3 YPC
5. Christian McCaffrey (49ers) – 48 yards, 15 att, 3.2 YPC
6. Nick Chubb (Texans) – 48 yards, 10 att, 4.8 YPC
7. James Cook III (Bills) – 46 yards, 15 att, 3.1 YPC
8. Blake Corum (Rams) – 45 yards, 11 att, 4.1 YPC
9. TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots) – 27 yards, 9 att, 3.0 YPC
10. Kyle Monangai (Bears) – 27 yards, 8 att, 3.4 YPC

Woody Marks had a monster game against the Steelers, averaging 5.9 yards per carry while totaling 112 yards. This was the high among all players.

Rhamondre Stevenson was also very efficient, averaging 5.3 yards per carry on his way to 53 rushing yards, while his Patriots backfield mate TreVeyon Henderson had a tough day, only averaging 3 yards per carry on nine attempts.

And here’s how each team in the Divisional Round held up against the run last week:

1. Texans – 63 yards allowed, 18 att, 3.5 YPC
2. Rams – 83 yards allowed, 22 att, 3.8 YPC
3. Patriots – 87 yards allowed, 22 att, 4.0 YPC
4. Bears – 99 yards allowed, 23 att, 4.3 YPC
5. 49ers – 140 yards allowed, 36 att, 3.9 YPC
6. Bills – 154 yards allowed, 23 att, 6.7 YPC

The Bills were gashed on the ground, as usual, allowing 154 yards on 6.7 yards per carry. Houston, on the other hand, completely shut the Steelers ground game down, holding them to 63 yards on just 3.5 yards per carry.

RB Trends for Divisional Round

Notable running back trends for NFL Divisional Round:

• Kyren Williams has exceeded 62.5 rushing yards in 15 of his last 20 games, averaging 74.5 rushing yards per contest
• D’Andre Swift has exceeded 54.5 rushing yards in 5 straight games against top 10 scoring defenses, averaging 83.8 rushing yards per game with his prop set at 55.5 yards
• Woody Marks has exceeded 58.5 rushing yards in 5 consecutive games against opponents with winning records, averaging 76.8 yards per game
• James Cook has exceeded 81.5 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 road games, averaging 106.0 rushing yards per game with his prop set at 77.5 yards
• Christian McCaffrey has exceeded 16.5 rushing attempts in 5 of his last 6 primetime games, with his attempt prop set at 16.5
• Kenneth Walker has exceeded 54.5 rushing yards in 5 of his last 6 home games, averaging 65.3 yards per contest

The most compelling rushing stat from the list above is Kyren Williams going over 62.5 yards in 15 of his last 20 games. I like the simplicity here. Williams consistently outperforms this number. However, it should be noted that two of the five unders have come in his last two games.

The trend I like the least is Kenneth Walker’s home success. It lacks context and doesn’t really consider his current opponent.

Breaking Down Receiving Props for Divisional Round

Sadly, we enter the Divisional Round without George Kittle, who tore his Achilles in the 49ers win over the Eagles last week, and are awaiting further injury news on Nico Collins and Ricky Pearsall. But there are still plenty of receiving props available for Saturday and Sunday, and I have pulled the most pertinent stats to know before betting.

Receiving Props Cheat Sheet for Divisional Round

All of the data in the table above is for the regular season – Brandin Cooks’ season average is just from his games with the Bills. You can find Wild Card performances below. The receiving over/unders are accurate as of Wednesday morning, but will likely move as the week goes on. So, don’t place any bets before checking the current lines on our NFL receiving yards props page.

Broncos receivers face the toughest passing defense in the league this week. All of Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, and Evan Engram see notably lower receiving yard over/unders than their season averages.

The Seahawks and Rams’ receivers should be able to find some space, as they are set to take on the 23rd and 22nd-ranked pass defenses, respectively. However, all notable Rams receivers see over/unders less than their season averages, which is the result of the frigid temperatures expected in Chicago on Sunday night. The same goes for Seahawks receivers, who are all given lower over/unders than their averages, in spite of the weather expected to be a non-factor.

Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba do have the highest over/unders among pass-catchers this week, though.

Recent Receiving Stats

Here are a list of the top receivers from the Wild Card Weekend, who are also playing in the Divisional Round:

1. Christian Kirk (Texans) – 144 yards, 8 rec
2. Colston Loveland (Bears) – 137 yards, 8 rec
3. Puka Nacua (Rams) – 111 yards, 10 rec
4. Demarcus Robinson (49ers) – 111 yards, 6 rec
5. Khalil Shakir (Bills) – 82 yards, 12 rec
6. Davante Adams (Rams) – 72 yards, 5 rec
7. Kayshon Boutte (Patriots) – 66 yards, 4 rec
8. DJ Moore (Bears) – 64 yards, 6 rec
9. Hunter Henry (Patriots) – 64 yards, 3 rec
10. Tyler Higbee (Rams) – 45 yards, 2 rec

Christian Kirk stepped up in a big way for the Texans, recording 144 receiving yards on eight receptions. This was much needed, as Nico Collins was held to 21 yards on just three catches prior to leaving the game with a concussion.

Colston Loveland also continued his run of strong recent performances, recording 137 yards on eight catches. And then here’s a reminder of how each team fared against the pass last week:

1. Texans: 148 passing yards allowed
2. Patriots: 159 passing yards allowed
3. 49ers: 168 passing yards allowed
4. Bills: 207 passing yards allowed
5. Rams: 264 passing yards allowed
6. Bears: 323 passing yards allowed

Receiving Trends for Divisional Round

Here are some of the most notable receiving trends for the NFL Divisional Round:

• Puka Nacua has failed to exceed 7.5 receptions in 6 of his last 7 games as a favorite, averaging 6.1 catches in that span with his receptions prop set at 7.5
• Davante Adams has exceeded 4.5 receptions in 6 of his last 7 games against bottom 10 passing defenses, averaging 5.7 receptions with his line at 4.5 catches
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba has exceeded 91.5 receiving yards in 8 of his last 9 home games, averaging 99.4 yards with his prop set at 91.5 yards
• Courtland Sutton has exceeded 48.5 receiving yards in 8 of his last 10 home games, averaging 68.1 yards per contest over that span, with his prop at 49.5 yards
• Christian Kirk has failed to exceed 47.5 receiving yards in 4 consecutive road games against top 10 scoring defenses, averaging just 11.5 yards per game
• Stefon Diggs has failed to exceed 49.5 receiving yards in 6 of his last 7 home games, averaging only 38.3 yards in those contests with his line at 49.5 yards
• DJ Moore has exceeded 29.5 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 home games, averaging 61.0 yards per game with his prop set at 29.5 yards

I think the most intriguing trend from the list is Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s success at home, since the sample size covers his entire season and one of those games was against the same 49ers team he will play on Saturday night – he recorded 124 receiving yards against them at home in Week 1.

I’m throwing out the Christian Kirk trend for now, since he could see a massive boost in target share if Nico Collins is ruled out.