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You Can Get DK Metcalf at 28-1 to Win 2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year; Is There Value With Baldwin’s Career in Jeopardy?

DK Metcalf
With Doug Baldwin's career at risk, does DK Metcalf stand a chance for increased playing time and a shot at OROY honors? Photo By @GiovaniBell2 (Twitter)
  • Seahawks’ receiver Doug Baldwin’s career might be in jeopardy due to injury
  • Seattle drafted hulking D.K. Metcalf and his offensive rookie of the year odds are enticing
  • Which first-year player presents the best value to win OROY?

Kyler Murray was drafted first overall by the Arizona Cardinals and unsurprisingly he’s considered the odds-on favorite to win 2019 Offensive Rookie of the Year. After that, there’s a host of rookies who could compete to win the crown.

One intriguing option that has fantastic NFL OROY odds is that of Seahawks’ second round pick and internet sensation wide receiver D.K. Metcalf with average odds of +1900. Is he worth wagering on or is there someone else to place more trust in?

2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Team Odds to Win 2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at Bookmaker
Kyler Murray +215
Dwayne Haskins +800
Josh Jacobs +875
Mecole Hardman +1400
N’Keal Harry +1700
Marquise Brown +2000
Deebo Samuel +2000
T.J. Hockenson +2000
David Montgomery +2100
Drew Lock +2300
D.K. Metcalf +2800

*Odds taken May 2, 2019

Don’t Bank on Metcalf Winning

You see that Metcalf actually has longer odds than his average at Bookmaker as they have him listed at +2800, with BetOnline listing him at much shorter +1200 odds.

Metcalf is superhuman with his absolutely chiseled physique so he’ll enter the NFL with a considerable amount of hype which could boost his chances to win the award.

The issue with expecting Metcalf to dominate right away is less about him and more about the team philosophy in Seattle, which is to run the ball, run the ball again, and then run some more.

Under the tutelage of head coach Pete Carroll, rookie wideouts have historically not produced numbers anywhere near close enough to win OROY.

Notable Seahawks Rookie Receivers under Pete Carroll

Year Player Rookie Stats
2010 Golden Tate (2nd rd pick) 21 REC, 227 YDS, 0 TD
2011 Doug Baldwin (undrafted) 51 REC, 788 YDS, 4 TD
2014 Paul Richardson (2nd rd pick) 29 REC, 271 YDS, 1 TD
2015 Tyler Lockett (3rd rd pick) 51 REC, 664 YDS, 6 TD
2017 Amara Darboh (3rd rd pick) 8 REC, 71 YDS, 0 TD

Receivers Struggle to Win Award

D.K. Metcalf is a physical marvel and is well-equipped to jump into a system with an elite quarterback like Russell Wilson and play well. Particularly, if the rumors about Doug Baldwin’s potential retirement are true.

The issue, however, is that in the last 15 years, only two receivers have taken home the hardware with Odell Beckham Jr. and Percy Harvin accomplishing the feat.

That in itself is enough to sound alarm bells when considering betting on Metcalf, or even any of the other receivers drafted (just two were taken in the first round, Marquise Brown at 25 and N’Keal Harry at 32).

Last 15 OROY Winners

Year Winner
2018 Saquon Barkley – RB
2017 Alvin Kamara – RB
2016 Dak Prescott – QB
2015 Todd Gurley – RB
2014 Odell Beckham Jr. – WR
2013 Eddie Lacy – RB
2012 Robert Griffin III – QB
2011 Cam Newton – QB
2010 Sam Bradford – QB
2009 Percy Harvin – WR
2008 Matt Ryan – QB
2007 Adrian Peterson – RB
2006 Vince Young – QB
2005 Cadillac Williams – RB
2004 Ben Roethlisberger – QB

Given that, and given Seattle’s propensity to be a run-first team, it wouldn’t be wise to lay money down on Metcalf, despite the enticing +2800 odds over at Bookmaker.

Best NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Bet

Kyler Murray could be the obvious choice, but there’s not much value there.

For that reason, I’ve selected a player who will benefit greatly from teams keying on star receiver Antonio Brown this year, creating mismatch opportunities and running lanes.

With the recent retirement of Marshawn Lynch not blocking his path to start, I like Josh Jacobs.

Best Bet: Josh Jacobs (+875)

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