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Dolphins vs Steelers Monday Night Football Picks, Odds & Preview – Pittsburgh Needs a Win Over Winless Fins

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Oct 28, 2019 · 1:19 PM PDT

James Conner celebrating with his teammates
James Conner and the Steelers host the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football. Photo from @ThompsonFoto12 (Twitter).
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football
  • Mason Rudolph returns as Steelers starter after concussion against Baltimore
  • Get the odds, our pick, and all the info you need to bet the game below

Even against a team that’s winless in over 300 calendar days, the Pittsburgh Steelers are nowhere close to considering their Monday Night Football matchup with the Miami Dolphins a gimme (Oct. 28, 8:15pm ET).

For a team swimming upstream at 2-4, just trying to get into the chase for a playoff berth and AFC North crown, every game is crucial.

But as you check the Dolphins vs Steelers odds, does a team that’s lost twice as many games as they’ve won deserve that much betting respect?

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under odds at BookMaker
Miami Dolphins +614 +14 (-101) Over 43.0 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers -900 -14 (-119) Under 43.0 (-110)

Odds taken October 28th

The betting public has spoken too: according to BookMaker, a whopping 95% of all ATS money is on the Dolphins to cover that two-TD spread, and if you want to take it from the wise guys, it’s a clean sweep: 100% of sharp ATS money bet on this game is also on the Dolphins.

Let’s find out which way you should be leaning in this one.

Dolphins Look Like a Professional Team … For Now

With the roster turbulence the Dolphins experienced to start the season, and a pair of soul-crushing defeats to the Ravens and Patriots, there was really nowhere to go but up for Miami.

But up is a relative term. After losing by a combined 82 points in their first two losses, the Fins cut that down to 45 in their next two L’s against the Cowboys and Chargers. They’ve lost their last two games by a total of 11 points, failing to convert a two-point try to beat Washington, and blowing a second half lead on the surprising Bills.

After dealing Laremy Tunsil, it’s been constant offensive line motion and ensuing wreckage for whoever was at QB, but Miami’s front five has now been the same for two straight weeks. Against Buffalo, the Dolphins kept their pivot sack-free, and even helped produce a game with over 100 rushing yards – both firsts this season.

And amidst the rubble is the development of a decent receiving duo: DeVante Parker has a TD reception in three straight games, and rookie Preston Williams is second among rookies in receptions.

Steelers Turn Season Over to Rudolph … Again

Mason Rudolph is back from that hellacious hit from Earl Thomas that concussed him. But, what, really, is the second-year man bringing to the table that should be inspiring to Steeler nation?

In four appearances, the most yards he’s thrown for is 229, and that was against the Bengals. In his first full start against San Francisco, he had just 174 yards. He had all of 131 before getting injured against Baltimore and had a whole half against Seattle and came up with just 112 yards. Pittsburgh has just 14 plays of 20 yards or more on the year, third worst in the NFL.

But they’re not passing it or running it well either. Pittsburgh is a woeful 27th in rushing, averaging just 76.5 yards a contest. On the bright side, they are going against the 30th-ranked defense, and James Conner is coming off 118 scrimmage yards and two TDs against the Chargers.

The Steelers defense is holding its own, second in the NFL in takeaways with 15. They’re at their best when getting after the quarterback, as their 20 sacks have them tied for fifth. If they can contribute some scoring plays, that would take a whole lot of pressure off the offense.

What’s the Best Bet?

I think it’s safe to say the sharps are on to something. Pittsburgh is getting the respect of a team that has Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, but their sluggish start is in part because of a lack of star power and complimentary pieces to JuJu Smith-Schuster. Pittsburgh’s defense should be the difference-maker to deliver the W, but take those points for the visitor.

The pick: Dolphins +14 (-101)

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