Dolphins vs Patriots: Monday Night Football Full Betting Preview

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The Miami Dolphins prepare to host the New England Patriots in Week 14’s Monday Night Football matchup (December 11) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. This marks the second meeting between the teams in just three weeks. From kickoff (8:30 PM ET) until the final whistle, the weather is expected to be clear with the temperature hovering around 56° Fahrenheit. Here is your full betting preview, including expert advice on the moneyline, the spread, the game total, and a few favorable props.

Team Injury Reports

MIAMI DOLPHINS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Dolphins vs Patriots Team Stats

DOLPHINS vs PATRIOTS

DOLPHINS OFFENSE vs PATRIOTS DEFENSE

PATRIOTS OFFENSE vs DOLPHINS DEFENSE

Dolphins vs Patriots Game Preview

For the second time in three weeks, the New England Patriots (10-2) will square off with the Miami Dolphins (5-7). But this time, the Pats will be facing a Dolphin offense led by Jay Cutler, rather than Matt Moore, and the whole country will be able to watch.

When these two played in New England in Week 12, the Patriots jumped out to an early 14-0 lead and never looked back, winning 35-17. New England amassed 417 total yards, compared to Miami’s 221. The Dolphin offense struggled to get anything going on the ground and committed three turnovers on the day. One of Miami’s two touchdowns came on defense, following a botched shotgun snap that Reshad Jones scooped up and took to the house. Tom Brady was only forced to throw the ball 28 times, as the Patriots were able to rack up a season-high 196 rushing yards.

New England continued that success running the ball last week, totalling 191 yards on the ground against the Bills. It has been the combination of Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead in the backfield leading the way. The former has run for 204 yards in the last two weeks, while the latter has 156 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns in that time. If Miami can’t slow down New England on the ground, it’ll be a long day for Adam Gase’s squad.

But even if Miami’s 21st-ranked run defense can overcome its struggles, its still has to deal with Tom Brady, who is quietly having one of the best seasons of his storied career. The five-time Super Bowl champion entered the week leading the league in passing yards (3,632) and passer rating (109.7), and has done it all without the services of his most-trusted wide receiver, Julian Edelman. Brady will also be without Rob Gronkowski this week as the tight end serves a one-game suspension for his completely unnecessary blow to the back of Tre’Davious White’s head. The Pats will have the services of Chris Hogan, who has been out since Week 9.

For Miami to hang around in this game, Cutler will not only have to make a few big plays, but he’ll also need to protect the ball. The Dolphins’ 23 turnovers rank 29th in the NFL, and Cutler is responsible for 11 of them in just ten starts this season. The pivot would be extremely grateful if Kenyan Drake can repeat his 120-yard rushing performance from a week ago. Although the Patriot defense has been much better over the last eight games (11.8 PPG), the unit is still allowing 125.6 rushing yards per game over the last six.

With a big game from Drake, against a Patriot defense that allows a league-high 5.1 yards per carry, and some help from Jarvis Landry after the catch, Miami could prevent New England from clinching the AFC East for another week.

Dolphins vs Patriots Betting Opportunities

Betting the Dolphins vs Patriots Moneyline

BEST DOLPHINS MONEYLINE: +475

BEST PATRIOTS MONEYLINE: -550

DOLPHINS STRAIGHT UP TRENDS

• MIA is 1-5 SU in their last six games
• MIA is 3-3 SU at home this season
• MIA is 3-6 SU when an underdog this season
• MIA is 1-2 SU as a home underdog this season
• MIA is 1-2 SU in divisional games this season

PATRIOTS STRAIGHT UP TRENDS

• NE is 8-0 SU in their last eight games
• NE is 6-0 SU on the road this season
• NE is 10-2 SU as a favorite this season
• NE is 5-0 SU as a road favorite this season
• NE is 3-0 SU in divisional games this season

HEAD-TO-HEAD STRAIGHT UP TRENDS

• NE is 3-0 SU in their last three games against MIA
• MIA is 3-1 SU in their last four home games vs NE
• NE is 12-3 SU in their last 15 games against MIA

EXPERT MONEYLINE ADVICE: PATRIOTS (-550)

After a sluggish 2-2 start to the season, the Patriots appear to be peaking at the perfect time. Tom Brady and company have now won eight straight, and will make it nine come Monday night. No location for this game could hide all the holes on Miami’s defense. Plus, Jay Cutler and Miami’s 26th-ranked scoring offense cannot be relied upon to keep up with Brady.

Betting the Dolphins vs Patriots Against the Spread

BEST DOLPHINS SPREAD: +12 (-115)

BEST PATRIOTS SPREAD: -11 (-103)

DOLPHINS AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS

• MIA is 4-6-2 ATS this season
• MIA is 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven games
• MIA is 2-1-2 ATS at home this season
• MIA is 3-5-1 ATS as an underdog this season
• Since 2016, MIA is 4-2-1 as a home underdog

PATRIOTS AGAINST-THE-SPREAD TRENDS

• NE is 8-4 ATS this season
• NE is 6-0 ATS in their last six games
• NE is 4-1 ATS on the road this season
• NE is 4-1 ATS as a road favorite this season
• Since 2015, NE is 8-5-2 ATS in divisional games

HEAD-TO-HEAD AGAINST-THE-SPREAD TRENDS

• The favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings
• NE is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings
• MIA is 4-2 ATS in last six at home vs NE

EXPERT AGAINST-THE-SPREAD ADVICE: PATRIOTS (-11)

In spite of committing two turnovers in Week 12, the Patriots still covered the 17.5-point spread against the Dolphins. While New England won’t have home-field advantage this time around, Brady likely won’t commit two more turnovers, nor is Miami likely to get another defensive score. Counting on Jay Cutler turnovers is a safer bet.

Dolphins vs Patriots Totals Betting

BEST OVER ODDS: 47.5 (-110)

BEST UNDER ODDS: 48 (-110)

DOLPHINS TOTALS TRENDS

• OVER is 7-5 in MIA games this season
• OVER is 7-0 in the last seven MIA games
• OVER is 4-1 when MIA is at home this season
• OVER is 6-3 when MIA is an underdog this season
• OVER is 2-1 when MIA plays a divisional foe this season

PATRIOTS TOTALS TRENDS

• OVER is 6-6 in NE games this season
• UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight NE games
• OVER is 4-2 when NE is on the road this season
• UNDER is 2-1 when NE plays a divisional foe this season
• Since 2015, UNDER is 12-8 when NE is a road favorite

HEAD-TO-HEAD TOTALS TRENDS

• OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings
• OVER is 3-3 in the last six meetings in MIA
• OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings where NE is favorite

EXPERT TOTALS ADVICE: UNDER (-110)

The Patriots are going to runaway early in this one, resulting in many clock-killing New England possessions in the second half. Bill Belichick’s defense is not going to surrender any big plays during garbage time, and Jay Cutler will not be patient enough to continue dinking and dunking his way down the field.

Dolphins vs Patriots Prop Betting

FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER: REX BURKEHEAD (+600)

Rex Burkhead has scored the first touchdown in each of New England’s last two games, and has carved out a clear role as the team’s red-zone/goal-line back. With both Brandin Cooks and Dion Lewis receiving shorter odds, Burkhead presents your best value here.

TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS – DOLPHINS: UNDER 2 (-115)

The Dolphin offense has only scored more than two touchdowns in four games this season. All four of those games were at home, but none of them were against defenses of New England’s caliber. Meanwhile, the Pats have not allowed more than two touchdowns in a game since Week 4.

TEAM TO RECORD MORE FIRST DOWNS: PATRIOTS -4 (-125)

The New England Patriots offense is extremely methodical, moving the ball at will anyway it pleases. Tom Brady and company average nearly 25 first downs per game (most in NFL), as a result. The Dolphin offense is sporadic and relies heavily on big plays to score. This is evident by Miami averaging just 17.1 first downs per game (27th). I’m very comfortable taking New England minus four for these odds. You’ll easily make up the handicap when New England is playing with a sizeable lead for the majority of the second half.