Dolphins vs Steelers Picks & Closing Odds
By Eric Rosales in NFL News
Published:
Trying to keep their lead atop the AFC North Division, the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6, 4-3 home) host a desperate team in the Miami Dolphins (6-7, 2-4 away) on Monday Night Football.
The Dolphins have just a 1% of making it to the playoffs, and a win against Pittsburgh is the first in a long list of musts to make it happen.
The books have the Steelers as home favorites in the Monday Night Football odds.
Kickoff is set for 8:15pm ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, with ABC and ESPN carrying the broadcast.
Dolphins vs Steelers Picks & Prediction
- Steelers -3 (-118 at FanDuel)
Miami enters this one riding a 4-game win streak, and their chances to succeed, particularly on offense, have been helped by the fact Pittsburgh star edge rusher TJ Watt (lung) is out.
Other notable injuries for the Steelers are on both lines, with O-lineman Andrus Peat (concussion) and DT Derrick Harmon (knee) questionable.
That can only help as Tagovailoa tries to shed the tag that he can’t win cold-weather games. He’s a career 0-5 when games kick off at 40 degrees or below. It’s expected to be a brisk 20 degrees in Pittsburgh at kickoff.
But unlike in previous Dolphins’ years, Tua isn’t the central piece of the attack. It’s running back Devon Achane, and he’s good to go after suffering a rib injury last week. Achane is third in the NFL in rushing, and is averaging a healthy 5.8 yards per carry.
And yet, I still like Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers to cover the 3-point spread in my Dolphins vs Steelers prediction.
Rodgers is coming off his best yardage game of the year — despite playing through a broken left wrist — tossing for 284 yards and a TD in a big 27-22 win over Baltimore, which kept them in first in the AFC North.
As his O-line has tightened up (just two sacks against the last three games), Rodgers has been able to better produce.
Pittsburgh’s quiet acquisition of veteran Adam Thielen and the promotion of Marquez Valdes-Scantling from the practice roster gives Rodgers a few more playmakers.
Most importantly, it has created space for DK Metcalf, who broke out of a slump with a monster showing against Baltimore, catching seven balls for 147 yards.
Miami may be 4-2-0 against the spread vs Pittsburgh in the last six games, but they haven’t played each other since 2023.
The Steelers have won four of their last six at home, with the last three victories by at least a touchdown.
Dolphins vs Steelers Closing Lines
With kickoff about two hours away, the Steelers are -175 favorites to win straight up at DraftKings, while BetMGM has the Dolphins as +154 underdogs. The spread is three points at various sites, including bet365 and Caesars.
The total is 42.5 points, available at various books, including DraftKings and bet365. That’s the highest number for Under bettors, but Over bettors might still be able to find another half point with a little search.
The interactive table above will automatically update as the NFL betting odds move over the course of the day.
MIA Dolphins vs PIT Steelers Line Movement
Even with the uncertain status of Watt and other players, the line has held steady at 3.0-3.5 points and hasn’t veered from that at all.
The Dolphins have been underdogs living in the +140-+160 range all week, while the Steelers have settled in as favorites in the -170 to -190 area.
The total in the opening Week 15 lines started at 41.5 points, and it’s only slightly increased. The best total under bettors can find is 42.5 points, and the best over total is 42 points.
Looking at the NFL public betting percentages, he most significant variance is on the moneyline, where 81% of bettors are taking the Steelers at -170 odds, a wager getting 64% of the money.
Spread bettors favor the Fins, with 53% of the bets and 61% of the money taking the Dolphins as +3 road dogs.
The total is also leaning to the Over, with 68% of the bets and 66% of the money taking the Over at 42 points.
MIA vs PIT Betting Trends
- Miami has lost 13 straight games when the kickoff temperature is 40 degrees or colder, including a 2-11-0 record against the spread
- The Dolphins are 4-11-0 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog
- The Steelers are 4-1-0 ATS in their last five against teams with losing records
- Pittsburgh has win 22 of their last 23 Monday home games
Sports Writer & Editor
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
