Don’t Bet NFL Player Props in Week 18 Without Knowing These Player Trends

Thanks to uncertainties around how much certain players will play and some teams resting their starters, there aren’t that many NFL player prop markets available for Week 18. A decent chunk of the props that are available are for backups making starts in what are meaningless games for their respective teams. I have a hard time putting my money on players in that situation.

However, there are some really strong trends supporting NFL player props from the meaningful games, including Mike Evans, CJ Stroud, and Christian McCaffrey, among others. These trends represent the strongest statistical foundations for player prop bets in the season finale.

1) Mike Evans Is a Panthers Tormentor

Mike Evans has gone over 4.5 receptions in 7 of his last 8 games against Carolina (7.0 receptions/game average).

Though Mike Evans has not had the best season so far, averaging just four receptions and 47.7 receiving yards per game with only three touchdowns, he has been very good against the Panthers.

Mike Evans Stats vs Panthers

Evans is averaging seven receptions per game in his last eight against the Panthers. He has also been better since returning from injury. He has gone over 4.5 receptions in two of three games since returning, and saw a target share of more than 34% in those games. At 4.5 receptions with plus-money odds on the over, Evans presents great value in the first game of Week 18.

Best odds (at the time of writing) to tail Evans: Over 4.5 receptions (+135) at bet365

2) Christian McCaffrey: Go-To Receiver vs Elite Competition

Christian McCaffrey has exceeded 5.5 receptions in 8 of his last 9 games against opponents with winning records (7.0 receptions/game average).

McCaffrey has posted fantastic receiving numbers this season, and they have been especially good when facing teams with winning records. McCaffrey averages seven receptions per game this season when playing teams who have winning records at the time of their game.

CMC’s over/under for receptions sits at 5.5 in Week 18, as he prepares to take on the Seahawks – a team with a winning record.

The sportsbook with the best odds to bet McCaffrey to go over 5.5 receptions is DraftKings, where you’ll get -111 odds.

3) CJ Stroud Is a Colt Killer

C.J. Stroud has gone over 207.5 passing yards in 5 straight games against Indianapolis (288.6 passing yards/game average).

Some quarterbacks simply have certain defenses figured out, and Stroud’s mastery over the Colts represents one of the week’s most reliable passing trends. Across five career matchups, the Texans’ signal-caller hasn’t just posted good passing numbers – he has posted great numbers.

Stroud is averaging 288.6 passing yards per game in his five starts against the Colts, and threw for 276 yards against them earlier this season. Stroud’s passing line sits as low as 207.5, which he has cleared in all five games against the Colts. His lowest passing total is 234 against Indianapolis.

You can get +121 odds on Stroud to throw for 220+ at DraftKings.

4) Travis Etienne’s Tennessee Struggles

Travis Etienne has never rushed for 60+ yards vs the Titans (36.4 average per game).

Etienne is averaging a career-high 67.2 rushing yards per game this season, but he still managed to struggle against the Titans, as he typically does.

Etienne Jr. Game Logs vs. Titans

The Jags’ RB is only averaging 36.4 rushing yards per game in seven games against the Titans, and has never rushed for more than 57 yards. This bodes well for under bettors, as Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set as high as 62.5.

You can get -111 odds on the under at DraftKings.

5) Courtland Sutton’s Mile High Mastery

Courtland Sutton has exceeded 54.5 receiving yards in 8 of his last 9 games at home (75.1 receiving yards/game average).

Home field advantage takes many forms, and Sutton’s consistency at Empower Field represents one of the season’s most reliable venue-specific trends. His 75.1 yards per game average at altitude significantly exceeds market expectations for his Week 18 matchup with the Chargers, where the Broncos are playing for the top seed in the AFC.

Courtland Sutton Last 9 Home Games

Set at 54.5 receiving yards, Courtland Sutton’s line appears very conservative. This is a mix of sportsbooks not appreciating his home splits, as well as believing Denver is going to run away with this game, evident by the 12.5-point spread.

Best odds to tail Sutton: Over 54.5 receiving yards (-110) at bet365