- The Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys square off on Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, Oct. 20)
- The Cowboys are 2.5-point home favorites, but 68.4% of the spread bets are on the Eagles
- What’s the best bet for PHI-DAL?
The Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) and Dallas Cowboys (3-3) clash on Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, Oct. 20) and bettors are backing the road ‘dogs in a big way.
Eagles vs Cowboys Spread and Money Breakdown
|Philadelphia Eagles||+2.5 (-105)||69.5%|
|Dallas Cowboys||-2.5 (-115)||30.5%|
*All odds & figures taken October 19
According to sportsbooks, 68.4% of ATS bets and 69.5% of ATS money is on Philly. Our Eagles vs Cowboys odds show Dallas opened as 3-point favorites, but the line has moved off the key number thanks to the overwhelming Philadelphia support.
Neither team has performed up to expectation so far, but the Cowboys in particular have been a major disappointment. Dallas came roaring out of the gate with three straight convincing wins, but have since dropped three in a row including last week’s humbling defeat to the Jets.
The Cowboys Offense is Stuck in Neutral
From Weeks 1 to 3, Dallas looked like one of the top offenses in football. They racked up 97 points over that span and an average of 481 yards of total offense per game. Over the last three weeks, they’re averaging less than 19 points per game and are dealing with major injury concerns at wide receiver and on the offensive line.
Cowboys VP Stephen Jones said on @1053thefan that Amari Cooper, Tyron Smith, La’el Collins, Randall Cobb and Byron Jones have a “legitimate shot” to play Sunday. “(They) have taken big steps to give themselves the opportunity to not only play but be productive and help us win.”
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) October 18, 2019
The majority of the wounded Cowboys are expected to play, but there’s no chance their o-line will be operating at full health, which could spell disaster against the Eagles. Philadelphia boasts a ferocious front seven and generates pressure at one of the highest rates in the league.
Prescott Melts Under Pressure
Dak Prescott has struggled mightily when facing heat this season, and the last thing he’ll want to see is the likes of Fletcher Cox breathing down his neck all game. Prescott has a Pro Football Focus grade of 94.2 when the pocket is clean, but just 48.0 when facing pressure.
When the heat is on, his TD-INT ratio drops from 10-2 to 1-4, and his completion percentage dips from 75.7% to 56.7%.
#Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has a 60.9 rating under pressure as opposed to a 122.0 rating when kept clean. That minus-61.1 rating loss under pressure is the largest for all quarterbacks that have started the entire season. h/t @LordReebs @BlueStarBlog pic.twitter.com/Se5HsPtqyf
— Newy Scruggs (@newyscruggs) October 17, 2019
One way the Cowboys could potentially alleviate pressure would be to run the ball successfully, but that could be extremely challenging against the Eagles. Philadelphia allows the second fewest rushing yards per game and Dallas’ play action percentage has dropped from 39.4% in Weeks 1 to 3, to 15.6% over the last three weeks.
Fly Eagles Fly
On the other side of the ball, Carson Wentz has restored his position as one of the league’s premier quarterbacks and leads one of only three offenses that has scored at least 20 points every game this season. Wentz has thrown a league high five touchdowns on third down and has seven TD passes and no interceptions in the red zone.
I’ll never not be impressed by Carson Wentz. pic.twitter.com/I5GGh9I5NH
— Victor Williams (@ThePhillyPod) October 13, 2019
He has the luxury of playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football and now faces an injury riddled Cowboys secondary that just coughed up 338 yards to Sam Darnold.
Wentz is currently PFF’s fourth highest graded quarterback and should be able to generate more than enough offense to cover this short spread. Follow the line movement and bet the Eagles at +2.5, or better yet play them on the moneyline.