Early NFL Props to Target for Conference Championships
- Which NFL player props should you target for the Conference Championships?
- We’re looking to bet the over on Lamar Jackson’s rushing yards versus Kansas City
- Below, see three NFL player prop bets to watch for this Conference Championship weekend
Only four teams remain in the NFL Playoff Bracket as we enter Conference Championship weekend. NFL player props for Kansas City versus Baltimore and Detroit vs San Francisco are starting to trickle out, and we’ve identified early lines with value.
Among our early NFL player props to target for Conference Championship weekend is the over on the rushing yards total for Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. We’re also looking to lock in 49ers tight end George Kittle.
Let’s dive into our early recommended NFL player props for Sunday, January 28th.
NFL Player Props to Target for Conference Championships
| Player (Team) | Prop |
|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | Over 63.5 Rushing Yards |
| George Kittle (SF) | Anytime Touchdown |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards |
Visit our NFL player props page for complete betting lines for Sunday’s two Conference Championship games.
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Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards
There’s a feeling in many NFL circles that this Baltimore Ravens team is special. If they hope to continue their run and make their first Super Bowl appearance in the Lamar Jackson era, the dual-threat QB will need another big performance.
Jackson rushed for 100 yards against Houston in the Divisional Round and has rushed for 70 yards or more in three of his past five games. We’re looking to target Jackson’s rushing yards prop if it’s sitting under 70 at sportsbooks.
With 100 rushing yards vs. Houston, Lamar Jackson became the first QB in NFL History with three 100-yard rushing games in the #NFLPlayoffs (by @neweracap) pic.twitter.com/1lcnci4RK8
— NFL (@NFL) January 22, 2024
The Chiefs have struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks all season, giving up the ninth most rushing yards to the position this season. According to Pro Football Focus, KC ranks fifth-last in the entire NFL regarding success rate allowed on zone-read and designed quarterback rushes.
Josh Allen just rushed for 72 yards on this defense, and Jackson ran for 107 yards and two touchdowns the last time he played the Chiefs. Considering how efficiently the Kanas City has been defending the pass, we project Jackson will have enough designed run plays to cash this over.
George Kittle Anytime Touchdown
Another NFL player prop bet we are targeting for Conference Championships is a George Kittle anytime touchdown versus Detroit. We cashed our Kittle receiving yards player prop last weekend, but we think the best value this time around lies in the touchdown scorer market.
The Lions have given up seven receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season, including in the Divisional Round when Bucs TE Cade Otton hauled in a TD pass on one of his five receptions (65 yards). Kittle also found paydirt in his Divisional Round matchup, recording a team-high 81 yards on the night.
Baker drives the Bucs down the field to tie it up! 🔥
Cade Otton ATD: +240 💰pic.twitter.com/bYP8gXhRAF
— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) January 21, 2024
Kittle should play another important role in the 49ers’ offense on Sunday, as SF wide receiver Deebo Samuel is nursing a shoulder injury. The 6’4″ tight end has averaged seven targets over the past three games and is currently playing 85% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Kittle has a great matchup advantage in this game facing a Lions secondary that grades bottom-five in the NFL in pass coverage per PFF. Detroit’s numbers against the run are quite impressive, so we project Kittle sees plenty of targets and hauls in a TD pass for the second consecutive game.
Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush
The final NFL player prop we are targeting for Conference Championships is Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush prop against the 49ers. We took the under on Gibbs’ rushing yards in the Divisional Round, and it ended up being the one prop that didn’t hit. We’re buying in on the speedster in this matchup.
Gibbs only saw nine carries in the win over Tampa Bay, but he made the most of his opportunities, rushing for 74 yards, including a 31-yard TD run. He now faces a SF rush defense that looks strong on paper but actually ranked 24th in success rate during the regular season.
JAHMYR GIBBS JUST BODIED ANTOINE WINFIELD JR. TO SCORE
THAT’S A ROOKIE pic.twitter.com/FKBxBWuSjW
— Booner (@boonersports) January 21, 2024
Those San Francisco run defense struggles against the run were on full display in the Divisional Round, as Green Bay’s Aaron Jones ran for 108 yards on just 18 carries, including a 53-yard run. Gibbs has the explosive speed required to break through this 49ers defensive front.
The “over” on the Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush prop has cashed in a whopping 11 straight games and 15 of 19 games overall. Gibbs had 16 carries of 15+ yards during the regular season, and we like targeting this longest rush prop while it’s sitting below 15 yards.
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Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
